浅析大学生创业的风险意识——基于大学生风险意识调研的实证分析

现今越来越多的大学生萌生创业想法并付诸实施,但众多大学生创业者中最终成功者少之又少。是否具备创业风险意识极大程度上决定了大学生创业能否成功。本文围绕创业风险意识阐述了其概念,分析了大学生创业过程中风险意识的重要性,并根据当下大学生创业意识不强的特点展开论证,最后结合外国经验对提升我国大学生创业风险意识提出建议,以期加强风险意识教育效果,培养大学生风险意识,提高大学生规避风险的能力,提升创业成功率。     

对大学生创业教育功能的探索

第一,大学生创业教育是以能力为导向而非学历为导向的教育。大学生创业教育的本质是提高大学生的创业素质，让大学生了解什么是创业、如何创业、怎样创业，而并不是要求大学生在学习期间创业或一毕业马上进行创业，而主要是在就读期间培养他们具备创新的能力和开拓的意识，以期在今后的工作岗位中不断创新。开展大学生创业教育的过程，是培养大学生创业意识、创业思维、创业品质和创业技能的过程，是促进大学生全面发展的过程。     

高校实施大学生创业教育存在的问题及对策研究

针对高校实施大学生创业教育过程中存在的问题,并分析产生问题的原因,针对原因提出组织培养优秀的创业教育师资力量、建立合理的创业教育课程体系,培养大学生创业素质、建立合理的创业教育课程体系,培养大学生创业素质和建立奖励机制,激励学生创业等对策,有效地解决创业过程中存在的问题。     

民办高校大学生创业探析

为摸清创业学生底数,深入了解民办院校大学生的创业情况,及时了解他们的创业困惑和想法,以便学校有针对性地开展创业教育、创业培训和创业指导。通过对四所民办高校在校大学生展开创业意向问卷调查工作,分析民办高校在校大学生的创业意向,为民办高校的创业教育提供参考和建议。     

完善高校大学生创业教育的思考

大学生创业教育是新时期我国高校人才教育的重要内容之一,是培养创新创业型人才的有效途径。在阐释大学生创业教育内容的基础上,对我国高校大学生创业教育的现状进行分析总结,探讨大学生创业教育存在的主要问题,并从创业文化培育、师资队伍建设、课程体系改进和管理机制完善等方面提出相应的对策和建议,为我国高校改进创业教育提供一定的参考和借鉴。     

国外大学生创业教育的发展特点及对我国的启示

近几年,大学生创业教育在国内高校发展十分迅猛,但由于起步较晚,无论是创业教育内容,还是创业教育方法均处在探索之中。西方发达国家进行大学生创业教育已有几十年历史,积累了大量的成功经验,其创业教育的内容设计和培养模式值得我国研究和借鉴,本文拟对此进行一些探讨。     

互联网背景下高校孵化式创业教育及其综合服务平台的构建

提出"孵化式创业教育模式"——该模式在创业教学方式上更加多元化,在创业教育体系上更具开放性和社会互动性。在此基础上,提出构建高校孵化式创业教育综合服务平台的设想,指出该平台通过资源整合帮助创业大学生创造商业价值的运行机制,以及在促进创业大学生嵌入产业网络方面的具体着力点。     

对我国大学生创业教育改革的思考

创业教育是一种新的教育理念,以培养学生创业意识、创业心理品质、创业能力、创业知识为主要目标.从我国目前经济发展和教育改革与发展的现状来看,高等院校开展创业教育,有利于促进经济繁荣,缓解就业压力,促进学生全面发展.创业教育理论与实践在不断发展和完善过程中,但对于我国大学生创业教育还存在诸多问题,创业教育有待于进一步改革与完善.     

大学生创业的动态考察与思索——以北京市为例

近三年的连续调查表明,北京高校大学毕业生创业的比例不高,创业大学生的经营状况也比较困难,没成为我国创业型发展的主要推动力量.大学生创业率较低的成因是多方面的,一是大学生创业意识薄弱,具有生存型创业意愿的分别占43.9％、45.8％、42.9％,宁可失业也不选择创业的占32.2％、20.6％、25.7％;二是大学生创业能力不足,90％的大学生不具备足够的创业能力;三是创业环境较差.应采取多种措施全面推进大学生创业,大学生要提高创业意识和创业能力;高校要大力发展创业教育,加大宣传,扩大创业教育规模,提高教育质量;政府要形成尊重创业的社会氛囤,建立创业基金,成立专业化服务机构,深化户籍、社会保障制度改革,制定优惠政策,优化创业环境,以推动我国大学生创业活动.     

在思想政治教育中培养大学生创业素质

开展思想政治教育,有助于增强大学生的创业意识,有助于提高大学生的创业能力,有助于塑造大学生创业型人格,在大学生创业教育中起着非常重要的作用。因此,探讨如何在思想政治教育中培养大学生创业素质具有重要的现实意义。可以从以下几个方面着手:更新教学观念,注重大学生创业素质的培养;整合思政课教学内容,有机进行创业教育;开展丰富课外活动,为创业素质培养提供有利条件;打造校园文化环境,创造浓厚的创业文化氛围;整合校内外资源,搭建大学生创业教育实践平台。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.