An Assessment of Partial Dairy Trade Liberalization on the U.S., EU–15 and Canada

The next round of multilateral trade negotiations will involve the expansion of tariff rate quotas and the reduction of export subsidies in the dairy industry. A nonspatial multiregion model of the world dairy industry is used to analyze the potential impact of such reforms on the Canadian, the EU–15 and the U.S. dairy industries. The results from selected partial trade liberalization scenarios indicate that there is no scenario that provides benefits to all participants in the dairy industry. The analysis of partial trade liberalization, in terms of its growth effects, varies by country and by sector, making win–win compromises hard to reach among the participants in a country, and even more so across countries. More market-oriented though still protected regions such as the U.S. generally improve their competitive position in the world dairy market as border measures are removed. By contrast, the dairy sectors in regulated milk production markets such Canada and the EU–15 are projected to be better off when the reform package does not compromise current policy settings, while giving some additional market access for surplus dairy production. La prochaine ronde de négotiations commerciales mullilalérales abordera les questions de l'expansions des contingents tarifaires et la réduction des subventions à l'exportation dans le secteur laitier. Utilisant un modèle multirégion non spatial du secteur laitier mondial, nous analysons les répercussions évenluelles de ces réformes sur les secteurs laitiers du Canada, de l'Union Européenne et des États-Unis. Les résultals obtenus pour certains scénarios de libéralisation partielle des échanges font voir qu'aucun scénario ne profite à tous les participants de lafilière. Les effets de cette libéralisation partielle sur la croissance varient d'un pays et d'un segment de la filière à l'autre, rendanl difficile la recherche d'un compromis salisfaisant pour tous entre les participants d'un même pays el plus encore entre différents les pays. Les régions plus axées sur le marché, malgré un niveau relalivemenl élevé de protections, comme les États-Unis, améliorenl en général leur situation concurrentielle sur le marché mondial lorsque les barrières tarifaires sont enlevées. À l'inverse, les pays où la production du lail est réglement4eAe, comme le Canada el l'Europe des 15, le secteur laitier a tout avanlage à ce que le bloc de réformes ne vienne pas menacer le cadre actuel, tout en ouvrant quelque peu le marché aux productions lailières excédenlaires.     

基于SCP范式的中国乳业市场绩效的实证分析

基于SCP范式的理论对我国乳业市场结构和市场行为的各项指标以及对市场绩效的影响进行实证分析,发现市场结构作用于市场行为并最终影响市场绩效,为企业在调整市场结构以提高市场绩效方面提供可借鉴的理论和政策建议。研究结果表明:①我国乳业行业规模经济效益越来越显著,行业进入壁垒提高,市场结构逐渐向中高度寡占型转变;②我国乳业的市场绩效与市场集中度、行业规模之间的相关关系通过显著性检验;③乳制品行业内各乳企之间的产品差异化不明显,技术程度有待加强。     

Evaluating the Market and Welfare Impacts of Agricultural Policies in Developed Countries: Comparison of Partial and General Equilibrium Measures

We revisit the question of choosing partial equilibrium or general equilibrium modeling in applied policy analysis in the context of evaluating the effects of a complete phase-out of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union. We compare the results of three models—two three-sector general equilibrium models (one with an additional major distortion in the nonagricultural sector) and a two-sector partial equilibrium model. We find that the market effects of a complete phase-out of the CAP are quite comparable across these models. On the other hand, the measured welfare impacts may depend on the modeling choice.     

Farmers in a deregulated dairy regime: Insights from Ireland's New Entrants Scheme

While the impending review of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is set to have an impact on all farming sectors across Europe, particularly transformative change is sought by policies relating to dairy farmers. EU milk quota abolition in 2015 will fundamentally revise the terms of dairy production, transitioning from policies of subsidy and protection to a scenario where farmers will produce milk on the open market. Dairy quota abolition essentially represents an economic but also socio-cultural disruption for a sizeable cohort of farmers, requiring adaptation to more market-driven production strategies. Agricultural policy-makers in EU member states are demonstrably preparing for this imminent change and dairy farmers are considering and strategising their responses at farm-level. Our focus in this paper is the interplay between quota abolition and farm-level decision-making in the pre-abolition period. Drawing from a broader mixed-methodological and multi-disciplinary research project, this paper uses qualitative narrative analysis to identify the key determinants arising in dairy farmers’ decision-making processes. How are farmers currently strategising their responses to dairy quota deregulation? Using the qualitative Biographic Narrative Interpretive Method (BNIM), we examine the range of factors determining how a particular group of dairy farmers are strategising their positions on the impending open dairy market. Our analysis highlights how, in the advent of a deregulated dairy production regime, dairy farmers are carefully deliberating their responses at farm level, drawing from policy and market related information, their own personal speculations, and conventional wisdom shared with other members of the farming community. We find that the dairy farmers are influenced not only by motivations to increase productivity and scale but by a tenacious approach to farm sustainability and resilience that is informed by past experiences of farming and seeks to preserve and promote socio-cultural farming values. The paper is of particular interest to policy makers and academics interested in the interchange between policy and farmer behaviour, particularly in the context of current CAP reform.     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.     

对我国集体林区产权改革一些问题的认识

集体林产权改革必须尊重历史,尊重广大基本群众对土地和民生的基本诉求,切实维护他们对土地的基本权力,核心是公平,而不是效率,效率上的改革企图只能在局部成功。新一轮林业产权改革没有触及林业行政和政府服务体系的改革。建议:尽快彻底取消林业税费;加强林业产权制度、基层森林管理模式、利益分配机制的综合研究和试验;林业部门主动放弃“森林”和“环境”等主导名词,而代替为“林农”“、林业”和“林区“”三林问题”新的话语;用以购买农民的森林所有权和林地使用权寻求少数林区作为改革试点,探索林区社会福利事业生态路径和管理模式,探索集体林区森林国有化改革的道路;寻求多样化、有弹性的林业改革发展道路。     

Spatial price efficiency in Mozambique's post-reform maize markets

Maize (Zea mays) shortages and maize price instability continue to occur in Mozambique in spite of policy reforms and great capacity for increased production in northern Mozambique. This study measured the efficiency of spatial maize price arbitrage in Mozambique's post‐reform period. Spatial price inefficiency does not seem to explain why food shortages continue to occur in Mozambique, suggesting nonprice market constraints such as poor infrastructure and poor market institutions as more likely explanations. Baulch's spatial efficiency test indicated that it is not profitable to ship maize from northern surplus maize regions to southern Mozambique. Records of interregional maize shipments show that indeed grain is not being shipped from the north to the south. Market liberalization may have improved spatial price efficiency, but high transfer costs still limit trade and potential benefits from freeing markets. Under these circumstances, food shortages and price instability are likely to continue.     

集体建设用地市场化进程：现实选择与理论思考

研究目的:现有文献对集体建设用地市场化改革的现实模式选择和路径演化归纳还相对薄弱。本文旨在基于观察不同类型集体建设用地(包括宅基地、经营性建设用地、公共基础设施用地以及征地)的市场化改革典型路径的基础上,探索不同模式在提升建设用地经济效率上殊途同归的共性规律,为城乡统一建设用地市场提供理论支撑。研究方法:案例分析与比较研究。研究结果:总结了本轮集体建用地市场化改革起点,刻画了宅基地、征地、统筹和入市4类市场化的典型模式或特殊现象,并对集体建设用地市场化规律做了初步探索。研究结论:集体建设用地市场化的现实路径是渐进式的"由点及面"的改革,现阶段改革创新需要关注三类收益分配问题,政府的规划和收益调节政策是地方探索市场化亟需的基础性规则,政府还应尽快对市场化中的各项权利开展立法工作。     

Social welfare effects of removing multiple exchange rates: evidence from the rice trade in Iran

In order to encourage the involvement of the private sector in importing rice, the Iranian government plans to relax the system of multiple foreign exchange rates applied to importers wishing to supply the domestic market. In this article, the welfare effects of removing the current controls on the rice trade, and a domestic rice coupon program, are evaluated by applying a partial equilibrium analysis to 1961–1999 data. The results show that, as far as foreign exchange is concerned, liberalization of the rice market causes an increase in rice imports, mainly due to a decrease in domestic supply. In welfare terms, the loss in producer surplus from rice market liberalization is relatively high, but most rice consumers, and the Iranian taxpayer, would gain. Overall, gains to consumers and taxpayers are estimated to be higher than the losses incurred by domestic suppliers, and therefore net social welfare at national level can be improved by rice market liberalization in Iran. Issues for further discussion include residual food security roles for the state, and supply‐side adjustments in terms of resource use and higher‐quality production.     

Rural Banking and Landless Labour Households: Institutional Reform and Rural Credit Markets in India

Financial liberalization is a key component of programmes of orthodox structural adjustment. Financial reforms include, among other things, the removal of controls on interest rates and the abolition of programmes of directed credit. Here the effect of financial sector reform on rural banking and rural credit transactions in India is examined, with particular reference to landless labour households. First, the trends in selected indicators of rural banking at the national level over the last 30 years are reviewed. Secondly, longitudinal data for a village in Tamil Nadu are used to examine changes in patterns of indebtedness and credit transactions among landless labour households. It is argued that the exploitation of landless labour households in the credit market has intensified with the introduction of financial reforms. Lastly, the policy envisaged as an alternative to the formal credit sector in the countryside – the establishment of micro–credit projects – is examined critically.     

对中国集体林区产权改革诸问题的认识

集体林产权改革必须尊重历史,尊重广大基本群众对土地和民生的基本诉求,切实维护他们对土地基本的权力,核心是公平,而不是效率,效率上的改革企图只能在局部成功。应当清醒地认识到这次改革目标是有限的。为此提出了4点建议:(1)尽快彻底取消林业税费。(2)加强林业产权制度、基层森林管理模式、利益分配机制的综合研究和试验。(3)林业部门主动放弃“森林”和“环境”等主导名词,而代替为“林农”、“林业”和“林区”“三林问题”新的话语。寻求少数林区作为改革试点,探索林区社会福利事业生成路径和管理模式,用以购买农民的森林所有权和林地的使用权,探索集体林区森林国有化改革的道路。(4)寻求多样化、有弹性的林业改革发展道路。     

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.     

A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector

Recent history has seen an increase in the utilization of partial equilibrium based forest sector models to identify potential impacts of various policies or timber market shocks. These models are particularly useful in that they employ economic theory to capture the interaction of supply and demand in a framework where commodity prices are endogenous to the policy or shock simulated. We present recent developments and linkages between models and review applications of these models to forest policy questions over the previous decade. We conclude with a discussion of potential future directions for such research.     

Profitability Development and Resource Reallocation: The Case of Sugar Beet Farming in Germany

Following the 2006 reform of the European Union sugar market, and in anticipation of the quota abolition, a reallocation of sugar production has occurred. Using a Lowe quantity index, we evaluate the productivity and profitability of sugar beet farming in Germany from 2004 to 2013. The results show that an increase in total factor productivity partly compensated for losses in terms of trade. Moreover, the contribution of production reallocation to sector productivity growth varied across regions with distinct ownership structures of sugar processing companies. These findings have implications for policy and industry, as it transitions to a liberalised market.     

利率市场化改革如何影响了农村正规金融对非正规金融的替代性?

本文基于"技术内生效应"的视角研究了利率市场化改革对农村正规与非正规金融替代性的影响。本文指出利率市场化改革对农村正规金融利率调整的效应有三种,分别是直接名义收益效应、农户类型异质的借款人结构类型效应和正规金融机构解决信息不对称与监督问题的技术内生效应,这三种效应导致农村正规金融对非正规金融的替代呈倒"U"形关系。本文的实证研究表明利率市场化改革对正规与非正规金融替代性主要不是源于利率价格变动的名义收益效应,而是与信息不对称问题密切相关的借款人结构类型效应与技术内生效应。本文的政策含义在于,农村利率市场化改革要考虑普惠金融与金融精准扶贫的有效性,同时要考虑农村的信息不对称问题并做好激励机制设计。     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Multinationals vs. Cooperatives: The Income and Efficiency Effects of Supply Chain Governance in India

The impact of multinational firms on the domestic agricultural sector in developing countries is controversial, in particular in India. Relying on a unique set of household‐level data from the state of Punjab, we study the biggest dairy company in the world (Nestlé) in India and compare its vertical spillover effects on upstream suppliers to other market channels (informal sector and cooperatives). We find that farmers that supply informal channels are less efficient and earn lower profits per dairy animal than farmers supplying the cooperative and the multinational sector. Furthermore, we find that farmers using the multinational channel are more efficient than farmers in the cooperative channel, but equally profitable. Hence, we do not find that supplying the cooperative channel is more beneficial for local dairy farmers than supplying the multinational channel. Overall, however, dairy productivity and profitability levels are still dramatically low, with substantial scope for dairy development.     

ISSUES OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Growth in agricultural productivity and the stimulus of price supports have led to overproduction in Western Europe: in particular, the European Community has become a smaller importer and even a major exporter of several products. But as prices in the EC are usually above world levels, this requires expensive subsidisation and leads to trade conflicts. Adjustments now forced on the CAP mean a greater cost-price squeeze, besides imposing quotas on the dairy sector. Policy aims relating to farm incomes and to market balance have thus become very difficult to reconcile. Future policy will also have to take more account of the impact of farming on the environment and of the role of agricultural activity in rural communities. Are there policy instruments, such as direct aids, which can help to achieve such diverse goals? What are the implications of changing circumstances for farming systems, and in particular can low-input systems offer an alternative to the ‘productivist’ farming model?     

The two‐way interaction between globalization and labour market policies

Labour market and social policies both affect and are affected by the process of trade liberalization and globalization. This two‐way interaction and the feedback effects are the focus of this paper. The analysis is mainly conceptual—but examples are illustrated throughout, based mainly in the context of labour markets in North America, Latin America and the Caribbean basin. Attention is paid to outlining the mechanisms whereby globalization and trade liberalization affect labour market and social policy initiatives, and the extent to which these pressures will lead to a harmonization of legislative and policy initiatives, and if that harmonization will necessarily be downward to the lowest common denominator. The paper concludes that: (1) the pressures will lead towards policy harmonization; (2) the harmonization generally will be downwards; (3) such harmonization is not always negative as generally perceived; (4) efficient regulatory and social policy initiatives will survive and indeed expand, with the “rent‐protecting” ones under most pressure to dissipate; and (5) pure distributional or equity‐oriented initiatives that have no positive feedback effect on efficiency, unfortunately, will also be under jeopardy to dissipate, and this is a serious policy concern. Alternatives for addressing this concern are discussed, as are their associated problems.     

Assessing agricultural trade policies options with the European Union: a Brazilian perspective

Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions.