Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Growth and Government Policy on Income Distribution in India

This article uses a limited general equilibrium model to investigatethe growth and equity effects of a variety of economic and technicalchanges and selected agricultural policies in India. It exploreshow changes in food prices, rural wages, and farm profits associatedwith the Green Revolution period affected income distributionbetween net buyers and sellers of food. The model shows thatincome gains from the Green Revolution initially accrued tothe wealthier rural groups but that after 1972–73 theywere transferred to urban consumers and that by 1980–81the per capita incomes of poor and wealthier rural groups alikewere barely above their respective 1960–61 levels. Themodel is also used in counterfactual analysis of the impactof changes in technological, demographic, investment, taxation,and income redistribution variables. Its findings indicate theimportance of trade policies for the nature of the equity outcomesfrom agricultural growth and suggest that a reduction in populationgrowth and an increase in nonagricultural employment and incomeare required to convert agricultural growth into reduced ruralpoverty.     

劳动力转移对农户消费和投资水平的影响

劳动力转移会显著提高农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平,但对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出没有产生显著影响。通过劳动力就地转移方式和异地转移方式的比较发现,就地转移会使农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平得以提高,但异地转移却对农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出没有产生显著影响,同时,两种转移方式对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出均没有产生显著影响。     

农村贫困地区支付环境建设中存在的问题及建议--以吉林省长岭县为例

长岭县位于吉林省西部,国土面积5728.4平方公里。长岭全年平均风速每秒3.5米以上,是吉林省有名的贫困地区。2015年,长岭县生产总值实现300亿元,全口径财政收入实现8.2亿元,地方级财政收入实现5.6亿元;完成固定资产投资224亿元;规模以上工业总产值实现374万元,增加值实现11%。新增规模以上工业企业没有;社会消费品零售总额实现115.7亿元;城镇居民人均支配收入达到2.2万元;农民人均纯收入达到1.1万元。全县乡级行政区22个,全县村级行政区232个,农村地区人口数量53.69万人,农村地区银行网点数量60个。     

Can Africa's Saving Collapse Be Reversed?

Private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from more than11 percent of disposable income in the 1970s to less than 8percent in the 1980s and only partially recovered (to less than9 percent) in the 1990s. This article analyzes the determinantsof private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa, seeking to explainthe region's dismal performance and identify policies that couldhelp to reverse the region's decline in saving. The analysisshows that in Sub-Saharan Africa causality runs from growthto investment (and perhaps to private saving), whereas a risein the saving rate Granger-causes an increase in investment.Foreign aid Granger-causes a reduction in both saving and investment,and investment also Granger-causes an increase in foreign aid.The empirical analysis of private saving in Sub-Saharan Africaand other regions over 1970–95 suggests that private savingin Africa can be explained by standard behavioral models. Accordingto these models private saving in Africa lags behind that inother regions (most notably, the high performing Asian economies)because of the region's lower per capita income, high young-agedependency ratio, and high dependence on aid. The combined effectsof these factors substantially outweigh Africa's advantage fromits lower public saving and higher government consumption. Finally,analysis of the experiences of Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Botswanaprovides further insight into the saving process in Sub-SaharanAfrica.     

安徽省城乡居民收入差距影响因素的灰色关联分析

本文在安徽省1995—2012年城乡居民收入差距现状进行分析的基础上,运用灰色关联分析方法,分析了就业结构、二元对比系数、城乡全社会固定资产投资差距、以人均国内生产总值为代表的经济发展阶段和外贸依存度对城乡居民收入差距的影响,得出结论：二元对比系数、城乡全社会固定资产投资差距对城乡居民收入差距影响最大,就业结构、外贸依存度对城乡居民收入差距影响较低,并根据分析结果提出缩小安徽省城乡居民收入差距的相关政策建议。     

银行体系、技术冲击与中国宏观经济波动

本文运用新凯恩斯的DSGE模型研究金融效率、经济结构变化对技术冲击效应的影响。研究结果印证了传统经济周期理论的核心观点,即技术进步不仅可以刺激产出、消费和投资,还可以降低社会总体价格水平,而金融中介效率、资本收入份额和折旧率的高低都不会影响技术冲击的传导路径。同时,本文的研究还显示,作为金融中介的银行体系效率越高,技术冲击对宏观经济波动的影响越小。该结论意味着,在当前阶段我国应着力提高国内金融体系的效率,以保证宏观经济的平稳健康运行。     

养老基金个人投资选择权的理论阐释与实践发展

国外养老基金个人投资选择权的理论阐释与实践发展表明,职工并不能作为"理性人"在养老基金投资运营中实现收益最大化,并进而揭示出养老基金个人投资选择权的两个主要发展趋势,即"管理机构选择权"模式中个人在投资机构问的转移率与该国人均收入水平负相关,以及"投资基金选择权"模式中个人参与率下降趋势明显.因此,如果我国企业年金设置...     

On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles

This paper proposes a new channel of on‐the‐job learning to explain the positive comovement between consumption and employment following good news about future productivity. The new recruits can generate an additional stream of output production in all future periods, and the firm's labor demand is thus characterized by the forward‐looking property. Therefore, the firm is motivated to hire more new recruits in advance in response to good news about future productivity. Once the increase in labor demand is greater than the decrease in labor supply caused by the income effect, the coincident rise in consumption and employment can be driven by the news shock. When such a channel is paired with investment adjustment costs and the endogenous capacity utilization rate, this paper provides a plausible explanation for simultaneous booms in current consumption, investment, output, and employment to match the empirical evidence under the news shock.     

农村居民健康支出与人均纯收入的相关性分析——以吉林省为例

农村人力资本的投资与农民收入的关系一直是学术界研究的重点,本文以农村居民健康支出为例,截取吉林省2000-2009年农村居民健康支出与农民人均收入的数据,对两者进行了一元线性归回分析,证明两者存在正向相关性,即农村居民家庭健康支出对农民人均纯收入有显著正向相关性影响,即在一定程度上,增加农村居民家庭健康支出,会较大程度的促进农民人均纯收入的增长。     

Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.     

Bank-based versus market-based financial systems: A growth-theoretic analysis

We study bank-based and market-based financial systems in an endogenous growth model. Lending to firms is fraught with moral hazard as owner-managers may reduce investment profitability to enjoy private benefits. Bank monitoring partially resolves the agency problem, while market-finance is more ‘hands-off’. A bank-based or market-based system emerges from firm-financing choices. Neither system is unequivocally better for growth, which crucially depends on the efficiency of financial and legal institutions. But a bank-based system outperforms a market-based one along other dimensions. Investment and per capita income are higher, and income inequality lower, under a bank-based system. Bank-based systems are also more conducive for broad-based industrialization.     

Optimal taxation and redistribution in an OLG model with unemployment

This paper concerns redistribution via nonlinear income taxation in an overlapping generations model with two ability-types. We assume that the wage rates are determined by bargaining between unions and firms, meaning that the equilibrium is characterized by involuntary unemployment. We show that the policy instruments that are used to calculate the marginal labor income tax rate for each ability-type give rise to intertemporal tax base effects. In addition, since the relationship between the employment and the capital stock implies intertemporal production inefficiency at the second best optimum, imperfect competition in the labor market may itself justify capital income taxation.      

Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel

This paper analyzes the effect of terror on the economy. Terror endangers life such that the value of the future relative to the present is reduced. Hence, due to a rise in terror activity, investment goes down, and in the long run income and consumption go down as well. Governments can offset terror by putting tax revenues into the production of security. Facing a tide in terror, a government that acts optimally increases the proportion of output spent on defense, but does not fully offset the tide. Thus, when terror peaks the long run equilibrium with an optimizing government is of lower output and welfare. Next, we show that this theory of terror and the economy, helps to understand changes in trend and business cycle of the Israeli economy. The estimates show that terror has a large impact on the aggregate economy. Continued terror, at the level of the death toll by about the same size as due to car accidents, is expected to decrease annual consumption per capita by about 5% in 2004. Had Israel not suffered from terror during the last 3 years, we estimate that the output per capita would have been 10% higher than it is today.     

International investment patterns: Evidence using a new dataset

This paper examines the bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across a set of countries using International Monetary Fund's new dataset on international equity holdings at the end of 1997, 2001 and 2002.The paper finds that the bilateral equity investment is strongly correlated with the underlying patterns of trade in goods and services. The information asymmetries and cultural-institutional proximity are important for bilateral equity investment. The size of domestic stock market is the key correlate of aggregate foreign portfolio equity asset and liability holdings. The scale of aggregate foreign equity asset holdings is larger for countries having high income per capita.     

地方财政支出调节城乡收入差距的效率评价——基于三阶段DEA模型的实证分析

通过三阶段 DEA 模型对我国2010~2013年地方财政支出调节城乡收入差距的效率进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国地方财政支出调节城乡收入差距的效率受环境因素的影响较大,城镇化率、对外贸易依赖程度是调节效率提高的有利因素,人均 GDP、人口密度是调节效率提高的不利因素;总体地方财政支出调节城乡收入差距的综合效率较低;东、西部地区的平均综合效率始终高于中部地区,效率分布与地区间经济发展水平不一致。     

Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries

Life insurance has become an increasingly important part ofthe financial sector over the past 40 years, providing a rangeof financial services for consumers and becoming a major sourceof investment in the capital market. But what drives the largevariation in life insurance consumption across countries remainsunclear. Using a panel with data aggregated at different frequenciesfor 68 economies in 1961–2000, this article finds thateconomic indicators—such as inflation, income per capita,and banking sector development—and religious and institutionalindicators are the most robust predictors of the use of lifeinsurance. Education, life expectancy, the young dependencyratio, and the size of the social security system appear tohave no robust association with life insurance consumption.The results highlight the importance of price stability andbanking sector development in fully realizing the savings andinvestment functions of life insurance in an economy.     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

The simple dynamics of a debt crisis

Optimal growth path of an ‘impatient’, neoclassical economy is studied, when creditors impose a credit ceiling to prevent debt repudiation. The ceiling becomes binding in finite time. When the credit-constrained regime begins, foreign capital inflows and domestic investment fall abruptly. Output per-capita, consumption, and real wages gradually decline, while the real interest rate rises. These results show that debt crises, in which high external debt is associated to low growth, can occur even in the absence of unanticipated shocks, policy mistakes, or ‘debt overhang’ effects. If distortionary policies cause ‘impatient’ behavior, the model is consistent with chronic capital flight in the debtor country. (JEL F34, F32)     

Accounting for development through investment prices

Cross-country income gaps are large in the data. Can observed investment prices account for these gaps? Our model adds an extensive margin to the neoclassical growth model by allowing for entry of firms. When combined with a “returns to variety” effect, our model provides an amplification mechanism from investment prices to output. Using cross-country data on relative investment prices, the model can explain up to 5 to 6-fold income differences between the richest and poorest countries in our sample while simultaneously reducing the implied cross-country TFP differences.     

湖南省服务业发展影响因素分析

论文以湖南省服务业为研究对象,分析了经济发展水平、城市化水平、服务业固定资产投资、城镇居民收入水平、工业化水平、服务业就业人数对湖南省服务业发展的影响,利用2001年─2015年相关数据,运用灰色关联度模型进行实证分析。结果表明城镇居民人均可支配收入、地区生产总值、第二产业增加值、服务业固定资产投资的影响最为显著。并据此提出相应的发展对策。