房贷、房价与银行风险规避对策

20世纪90年代以来的很长一段时期,我国对于房地产市场一直施行从松的经济政策,目的在于快速推进房地产市场运行,长时间的政策惯性助长了房产投机活动的高回报预期,致使房价一涨再涨,诸多情况加大了银行资产的潜在风险：借贷双方信息不对称;假按揭铸成银行不良资产;同业竞争使银行变相从松放款条件。银行需要完善对策体系保障其资金安全：滚动更新客户分级分类系统;尝试金融产品创新;开发房贷保险分散抵押贷款风险;完善以政府为龙头的担保体系。     

房地产去库存政策对房价的影响机制简析

本文以虚拟资产和有限理性预期理论分析了2016年上半年房地产去库存政策对房价的影响机制,得出财政货币政策和房贷政策从需求侧影响房价;非理性预期因素,诸如人们对通货膨胀、政府维稳房价、人口增加等的预期间接促使房价上涨。     

我国商业银行是否面临着重大风险

近期,沪深股市银行股估值处于历史最低水平,资本市场是否在暗喻银行严重风险隐患?近年来,银行大量发放房地产贷款,房价高度泡沫与房贷大量投放的重叠,构成了房价泡沫对银行业的巨大风险;地方政府投资冲动以及高度依赖土地收入,存在投资规模失控或者土地收入低于预期的风险。     

浅析加拿大房贷政策

加拿大是一个高福利国家，房地产不是支柱产业，但近年来房价却一涨再涨。为了调控国内过热的房地产市场，加拿人联邦政府决定从2012年7月9日起实施新的房贷政策。新政策规定：房贷最长期限由原来的30年下降到25年；     

美国次级债危机剖析及其对中国的启示

2007年2月引发的美国次级债危机,对美国经济及全球股市影响巨大.这主要是由于次级债环境变化所致,包括信贷条件的放松、利率的波动、房价的波动及证券化市场的不规范等.我国应该从重视房贷风险、完善贷前审查、完善及推广抵押资产证券化和采取多种手段有效调控房地产市场等措施着手,防止类似次级债危机事件在中国的重演.     

对调控政策背景下县域房地产市场“价涨量增”的调查与思考

2011年,国家通过加息、控制二套房贷、增加保障性住房建设、提高房产税等手段控制房价过快增长和房地产市场的过度开发。但从实际效果看,相关调控政策并未达到预期目标,通过对赤峰市林西县房地产市场的调查,发现县域房地产市场仍呈现价格增长较快、开发总量较大的＂价涨量增＂的发展势头,出现与国家宏观调控政策不相协调、背离居民消费水平的现实问题,就此,我们对县域房地产市场＂价涨量增＂的现象进行了深入的分析与探讨。     

我国后危机时代的货币政策、房价走势与银行信贷风险

2008年金融危机以来,我国采取了积极的扩张的宏观政策,效果显著.但在刺激经济复苏的同时,造成了通胀预期甚至通胀风险为后危机时代紧缩政策的退出埋下了伏笔.一旦宏观政策由宽松转为从紧,不断上涨的房价,也将会因此受到极大影响.而我国的房价一旦下降,扩张政策形成的大量银行房贷有可能形成银行巨额坏账,在给银行带来巨大信贷风险的同时也完全有可能引发我国银行业的全面危机.本文主要通过向量自回归模型(VAR模型),结合数据进行实证研究,分析我国房地产价格与货币政策相关变量的关系,预期得到货币政策显著影响房价的结论.另外通过VaR模型与压力测试,分别从房地产开发贷款还款逾期、个人住房抵押贷款违约两方面,来分析房地产价格下降的幅度对银行净利润的影响,从而预测扩张性的货币政策的退出力度,最终通过阐述扩张性货币政策退出之后可能会形成系统性房贷风险甚至银行危机的机理,达到帮助银行规避系统性风险的目的.     

房贷新政策的特点分析与效应评价

2007年9月27日,中国人民银行和中国银监会联合发布了《关于加强商业性房地产信贷管理的通知》。该政策旨在合理引导个人住房消费行为,控制开发商囤积土地,打击房地产市场投机行为。从目前情况看,该政策在防范房贷风险,遏制房价虚高、维护经济平稳运行方面发挥了积极作用。最后,本文就进一步引导我国房地产市场健康发展提出要完善配套经济改革、改革土地供给制度、建立多层次住房供应体系等建议。     

房贷新政策的特点分析与效应评价

2007年9月27日,中国人民银行和中国银监会联合发布了《关于加强商业性房地产信贷管理的通知》。该政策旨在合理引导个人住房消费行为,控制开发商囤积土地,打击房地产市场投机行为。从目前情况看,该政策在防范房贷风险,遏制房价虚高、维护经济平稳运行方面发挥了积极作用。最后,本文就进一步引导我国房地产市场健康发展提出要完善配套经济改革、改革土地供给制度、建立多层次住房供应体系等建议。     

关于我国银行房贷业务的探讨

房地产行业作为我国国民经济发展的支柱产业,对我国经济的发展作用重大,而目前银行的房贷业务已经成为房地产行业的条件和基本动力。然而,过渡的房贷投放会导致房地产行业引发经济危机的风险。针对国外曾发生的次贷危机与资产泡沫,我国应该从中吸取经验,加强对中国银行房贷业务的管理。应该从规模、利率、期限、首付四个维度,切实加强对房贷业务的调控监管;同时,政府还要加强对房市的宏观调控,控制房价盲目增长;要加快房贷证券化的进程;还要做好进一步的金融监管力度。     

怎样搞好房屋拆迁评估——从事拆迁评估工作的一点体会

房屋拆迁评估因涉及到被被拆迁房屋环境、面积、新旧程度、补偿标准及住户心理等多方面问题,在评估中会遇到很多实际问题.本文通过笔者对新的<城市房屋拆迁管理条例>(以下简称新<条例>)的理解并结合实际经验谈谈如何搞好房屋拆迁评估.     

Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions

This paper develops a utility indifference model for evaluating various prices associated with forward transactions in the housing market, based on the equivalent principle of expected wealth utility derived from the forward and spot real estate markets. Our model results show that forward transactions in the housing market are probably not due to house sellers?? and buyers?? heterogeneity, but to their demand for hedging against house price risk. When the imperfections of real estate markets and the risk preferences of market participants are taken into consideration, we are able to show that the idiosyncratic risk premium, which mainly depends on the participants?? risk preferences and the correlation between the traded asset and the real estate, is a remarkable determinant of house sellers?? and buyers?? forward reservation prices. In addition, we also find that the market clearing forward price usually will not converge toward the expected risk-neutral forward price. The sellers?? or buyers?? risk aversion degrees and market powers are also identified to play crucial roles in determining the clearing forward price.     

Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

House Prices and Economic Growth

Using quarterly data for all 379 metropolitan statistic areas (MSAs) in the U.S. from 1980:1 to 2008:2, this paper empirically studies the effect of house prices on local Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). We compare the effects of predictable and unpredictable house price changes, which we use to capture the collateral and wealth effects of house prices respectively. We further analyze the relationship between the effects and household borrowing constraints, as well as the temporal pattern of the effects. Our analysis provides the following findings. First, house price changes have significant effects on GMP growth, and the effect of predictable changes (the collateral effect) is about three times stronger than the effect of unpredictable changes (the wealth effect). Second, the persistent component of predictable changes has a stronger collateral effect than the novel component. Third, when households are more financially constrained, the collateral effect is stronger, the wealth effect is weaker, and the total effect remains unchanged. Finally, the effects last for eight quarters, and peak on the fourth quarter after house price changes take place.     

我家的阳台

我家的阳台，有三平米，落地式的，内置两把藤椅、一把躺椅，那是我们一家三口或与亲朋好友闲聊时用的；一个藤几，藤几的底层，放着纸和笔，那是我用于记录偶尔涌现在脑海里的“灵感”，或记下报刊中的亮丽章句；还有，青花瓷花盆里栽植一株棕榈，     

Anisotropic Autocorrelation in House Prices

This article examines anisotropic spatial autocorrelation in single-family house prices and in hedonic house-price equation residuals using a spherical semivariogram and transactions data for one county in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, MSA. Isotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of the distance separating properties in space. Anisotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of both the distance and the direction separating observations in space. The goals of this article are (1) to determine whether there is spatial autocorrelation in hedonic house-price equation residuals and (2) to empirically examine the validity of the isotropy assumption. We estimate the parameters of spherical semivariograms for house prices and for hedonic house-price equation residuals for 21 housing submarkets within Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. These housing submarkets are constructed by dividing the county into 21 groupings of economically similar adjacent census tracts. Census tracts are grouped according to 1990 census tract median house prices and according to characteristics of the housing stock. We fit the residuals of each submarket hedonic house price equation to both isotropic and anisotropic spherical semivariograms. We find evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals in spite of a very elaborate hedonic specification. Additionally, we have determined that, in some submarkets, the spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals is anisotropic rather than isotropic. The empirical results suggest that the spatial autocorrelation in Montgomery County single-family house-price equation residuals is anisotropic in submarkets where residents typically commute to a regional or local central business district.     

House prices and risk sharing

Homeowners in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are able to maintain a high level of consumption following job loss (or disability) in periods of rising local house prices while the consumption drop for homeowners who lose their job in times of lower house prices is substantial. These results are consistent with homeowners being able to access wealth gains when housing appreciates as witnessed by their ability to smooth consumption more than renters. A calibrated model of endogenous homeownership and consumption is able to reproduce the patterns in the data quite well and provides an interpretation of the empirical results.     

全球房价飙升

Crude oil prices remain a key determinant of global economic prospects. Higher prices affect the global economy through a variety of channels.In the case of advanced countries,this supply-side effect, which was sizable during the 1970s, has fallen in the …     

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

We model liquidity in housing markets. The model provides a simple characterization for the joint process of prices, sales, and inventory. We compare the implications of the model to certain properties of housing markets. The model can generate the large price changes and the positive correlation between prices and sales that we see in the data. Unlike the data, prices are negatively autocorrelated and high inventory predicts price appreciation. We investigate several amendments to the model. Informational frictions show promise.