加强监管人员培训应对WTO挑战

我国加入WTO后,金融业将走向全球化、国际化,金融服务贸易的开放在给中国带来机遇的同时,也会带来严峻的挑战:由于网络信息技术的快速发展,金融业竞争加剧,人才流失严重,中央银行宏观调控及金融监管的难度加大.在这一形势下,作为最先感受政策变革的中央银行,尤其是基层央行如何做好金融业监管工作,提高央行监管水平愈显重要.而央行监管水平的高低,取决于监管人员的整体业务素质.为此,央行应加大力度,全面培训干部特别是培训现有的监管人员.对此,笔者特提出几点建议.……     

探索完善“2345”工作法 提升新行员队伍建设水平——以牡丹江市中支为例

基层央行新行员是经人民银行统一招录考试进入分支机构工作的人员，是分支机构事业发展的储备力量和兴旺所在。加强新行员的培养和管理，促进新行员顺利成长成才，是基层央行的一项重要课题。本文介绍了基层央行在新行员队伍建设工作的探索路径及取得的成效，并结合工作实际提出了意见建议。     

央行县级支行监督机构派驻制的实践与完善

中央银行县级机构的监督工作实行派驻制,是一种探索与尝试.从2006年9月开始,赣州中支对县(市)支行的监督工作实行了派驻制.运行近一年的实践看,对解决"上级监督太远、同级监督太浅、下级监督太软、法律监督太晚"的问题起到了积极作用.但由于运行时间短,派驻制的效用还未充分发挥.     

基层央行监管方式的评价和创新

银行监管的目的是保证银行体系的安全稳健以及防止金融系统的动荡。本文拟从基层人民银行监管员的视角对现行的监管制度和行为方式进行分析,探讨基层央行金融监管行为方式变革的可行性,探索作为监管创新方式的责任监管的操作模式和特征，并提出改进传统监管方式的若干政策建议。     

提高基层央行金融监管有效性的思考

中国加入 ＷＴＯ，大量外资银行机构的涌入，将给基层中央银行监管带来巨大 的挑战，而目前基层央行由于受多种因素的制约，并未做好这方面的准备。本文通过对基层央行监管现状的分析，从深化央行监管体制改革、更新监管理念、调整监管方式、完善监管法律等多个方面，对如何开展金融监管创新、提高基层央行的监管有效性提出了相 应的对策建议。     

提高央行监管有效性的几个问题

1.央行体制缺陷，从我国现行的央行体制看，有两个问题比较突出：一是独立性和权威性相对不足，1999年央行进行了管理体制改革，撤销省级分行，设立大区分行，但这一改革对基层人民银行来讲，效果不大，独立性没有明显增强，因为地（市）级以人民银行的管理体制未变，机构仍是按行政区域设置，地方政府仍将其作为属地机构对待，受地方政府不合理干预的体制因素并未得到根本消除，有些地方政府和党政领导在观念上也没有充分认识到人民银行作为中央银行的地位和独立行使金融监管职责的重要性，有的甚至认为人民银行是地方政府的职能部门，给人民银行独立开展工作带来许多困难。一些基层人民银行在处理与地方政府的关系上也存在误区，对央行的生产关系性缺乏足够的认识，自觉不自觉地扮演了地方政府职能部门的角色，二是监管体制不顺，设立央行大区分行的目的是增强独立性，并没有充分考虑监管的有效性和合理性，加之央行体制与商业银行体制改革脱节，监管得与被监管者之间存在体制偏差，导致监管错位和监管权责不一。在现行体制下，根据监管职责划分，四家国有商业银行省级分行的监管职权属于大区分行，耐 根据属地监管原则应该由省会中心城市的央行履行监管职责，这种矛盾影响了监管的针对性，增加了监管成本，降低了监管效率，实际上削弱了监管的作用，同时，作为大区分行派驻机构的监管办事处，其职责很难正确定位，容易出现偏差，在实际运作过程中不可避免地引发与各中心支行工作上的冲突和重复检查，此外，央行管理体制改革后出现了监管权限上收和监管责任下放的倾向，这样，既挫伤基层央行的积极性，又影响了监管的有效性。     

基层央行国债监管工作的难点及其对策

基层央行处于国债监管的前线,担负着防范、化解国债资金风险以及维护金融业务安全稳健运行的重要任务。但由于种种原因,目前基层央行的国债监管工作还存在一些问题,直接影响到基层央行监管职能的充分发挥。如何解决这些问题,提高基层央行国债监管工作的质量和效率,是一个要认真探讨的问题。     

增强"四种意识"和提升"四种能力"是有效推进基层央行廉政及反腐工作的保证

随着我国基层人民银行(也称"基层央行")职能的调整和经济金融形势的发展,基层央行的很多工作内容都发生了显著的变化,这就对加强基层央行的党风廉政建设和反腐败工作提出了新的更高的要求.如何面对新形势和新变化,切实推进基层央行党风廉政建设和反腐败工作,这就要求各级领导干部必须增强"四种意识",提升"四种能力",这是有效推进基层央行廉政建设及反腐败工作的保证.     

提高基层行金融监管有效性的思考

中国加入WTO，大量外资银行机构的涌入，将给基层中央银行监管带来巨大的挑战，而目前基层央行由于受多种因素的制约，并未做好这方面的准备。本通过对基层央行监管现状的分析，从深化央行监管体制改革，更新监管理念，调整监管方式，完善监管法律等多个方面，对如何开展金融监管创新，提高基层央行的监管有效性提出了相应的对策建议。     

构建基层央行内部“大监督”体系的探讨

人民银行内部监管工作是保证各级人行正确行使央行职能的关键性工作,本文对新时期如何整合基层央行各类监督资源、构建基层央行内部"大监督"体系进行了探讨。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。     

人行县支行备份路由的解决方案

目前江苏省内人民银行各县(市)支行与其市中心支行的网络互联是通过专线经中国电信的x.25分组交换网实现的,没有其它备份线路,一旦线路或路由器出现故障,电子联行、银行信贷登记咨询、货币发行管理等业务系统就不能与中心支行的业务系统实现正常通信,这不仅会影响本行业务工作的正常进行,甚至可能会影响上级行业务系统的正常运行.针对这一问题我们首先想到的解决方法是,购买一个路由器作为备份路由器,再租用一条其它方式的远程连接线路作为备份线路,这样的备份设备费用至少15万～2万元.如果采用Windows 2000 Server(或者Windows NT Server 4.0),使用其免费提供的请求拨号路由服务,就能实现临时应急备份路由.下面对Windows2000的请求拨号路由及其安装配置做一详细说明.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.