融资约束与中国企业的进口行为

本文采用贸易四元边际的分析框架,实证分析了融资约束对企业进口行为的影响,并对比了非金融危机、金融危机背景下融资约束对企业进口行为影响的差异性。主要发现:(1)融资约束对企业进口决策存在显著的抑制作用,融资约束会显著抑制企业的进口行为,包括进口规模、进口来源国数量、进口产品种类。(2)相对于外资企业,内资企业的进口行为更容易受融资约束的影响;相对于一般贸易,企业的加工贸易进口更容易受融资约束的影响;相对于只进口的企业,同时具有进口和出口行为的企业更容易受到融资约束的影响。另外,不同行业的企业、不同地区的企业受融资约束的影响也具有较大的差异。(3)不同的外部金融环境导致融资约束对企业进口行为的影响存在显著差异。金融危机导致企业的进口行为对融资约束表现出更强的敏感性,高融资约束企业与低融资约束企业在进口四元边际上的差距被进一步拉大。     

进口与企业员工收入——以中国制造业企业为例

进口企业的职工工资直接关系到企业员工的民生福祉和劳动力市场的就业稳定性。本文基于中国制造业微观企业数据,就进口贸易对企业职工收入的影响进行深入考察,结果表明:(1)进口有利于提高企业职工的平均工资水平,不过这种正向的“工资提升”效应在长期不具有持续性。(2)中介效应检验表明,进口通过竞争效应和激励效应作用于企业的工资水平。进一步使用倍差法、工具变量法等的估计结果也证实了上述结论的稳健性。(3)进口对企业工资水平的影响因企业所有制、是否出口、进口产品类型以及进口来源国的不同而具有显著的异质性。(4)引入劳动收入份额的分析表明,进口显著降低了企业的劳动收入份额。具体地,进口的“生产率提升效应”影响超过了“工资提升效应”影响。     

进口与企业员工收入——以中国制造业企业为例

进口企业的职工工资直接关系到企业员工的民生福祉和劳动力市场的就业稳定性。本文基于中国制造业微观企业数据,就进口贸易对企业职工收入的影响进行深入考察,结果表明:(1)进口有利于提高企业职工的平均工资水平,不过这种正向的“工资提升”效应在长期不具有持续性。(2)中介效应检验表明,进口通过竞争效应和激励效应作用于企业的工资水平。进一步使用倍差法、工具变量法等的估计结果也证实了上述结论的稳健性。(3)进口对企业工资水平的影响因企业所有制、是否出口、进口产品类型以及进口来源国的不同而具有显著的异质性。(4)引入劳动收入份额的分析表明,进口显著降低了企业的劳动收入份额。具体地,进口的“生产率提升效应”影响超过了“工资提升效应”影响。     

The optimal currency basket under vertical trade

This paper explores the theory of optimal currency basket in a small open economy general equilibrium model with sticky prices. In contrast to existing literature, we focus on an economy with vertical trade, where the currencies in the basket may play different roles in invoicing trade flow. In a simple two-currency basket, one currency is used to invoice imported intermediate goods and is called “import currency”, while the other currency is used to invoice exported finished goods and is called “export currency”. We find that the optimal weights of the import currency and the export currency depends critically on the structure of vertical trade. Moreover, if a country decides to choose a single-currency peg, the choice of pegging currency also depends on how other competing economies respond to external exchange rate fluctuations.     

An Institutional Analysis of the Design and Sequence of Trade and Investment Policy Reform

Countries vary in their political commitment to change and inthe capability of their bureaucracies. Policies vary in theirorganizational and political demands. These institutional variationscan be incorporated into the design of trade and investmentpolicy reform. In virtually all countries the presumption shouldbe for reforms to dismantle—not reconfigure—restrictiveentry rules and dysfunctional discretionary investment incentives.But there is no single approach, common across countries, throughwhich trade policy reform should proceed. Countries with weakadministrative capabilities should push import liberalizationto the limits. But politically constrained countries with astronger administrative capability might consider roundaboutreforms that secure outward orientation without full-scale,prior import liberalization.     

Trade Liberalization and China’s Exports of Renewable Energy Products: Evidence from Product Level Data

Using a large panel dataset that covers 116 countries and 62 renewable energy products over the period 2000–2012, this study evaluates the effects of trade liberalization on the export expansion of China’s renewable energy products. The results reveal that trade liberalization plays a crucial role in encouraging the exports of renewable energy products. Specifically, tariff reduction, in general, not only encourages the entry into new export markets, but also induces an increase in the volume of renewable energy products already traded. In addition, the positive effects of trade liberalization are more pronounced for foreign-owned exporters than for state-owned or privately-owned exporters. Also, the ways in which trade liberalization promotes exports of renewable energy products differ by the type, destination or origin of the renewable goods being exported.     

Access to Institutional Finance and the Use of Trade Credit

I develop a conceptual framework for analyzing the effect of the availability of institutional loans on firms' demand for supplier (trade) finance. I test for the existence of credit constraints and their effect on corporate financing policies. My empirical results support the hypothesis that trade credit is taken up by firms as a substitute for institutional finance at the margin when they are credit constrained. Further, in line with studies on the credit channel of monetary policy transmission, I find an increased reliance on trade credit by financially constrained firms during periods of tight money.     

Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization

The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization overthe last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slowsmultilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empiricalevidence indicates that this is the case even for unilateralpreferences that developed countries provide to small and poorcountries, but there is no estimate of the resulting welfarecosts. This stumbling block effect can be avoided by replacingthe unilateral preferences with a fixed import subsidy, whichgenerates a Pareto improvement. More importantly, this paperpresents the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferentialliberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization.Recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferenceswith data for 170 countries and more than 5,000 products areused to calculate the welfare effects of the European Union,Japan, and the United States switching from unilateral preferencesfor least developed countries to an import subsidy scheme. Ina model with no dynamic gains to trade, the switch producesan annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries that adds about10 percent to the estimated trade liberalization gains in theDoha Round. It also generates gains for each group: the EuropeanUnion, Japan, and the United States ($2,934 million), leastdeveloped countries ($520 million), and the rest of the world($900 million).     

Effects of Macroeconomic Policies on Sectoral Prices

The effect of macroeconomic policies on the relative pricesof internationally traded and domestic goods has been the subjectof extensive study. Analysis of the way in which these policiesthen affect prices at the sectoral level is complicated by theheterogeneity of sectoral production: even the prices of singleproducts usually are determined by both domestic and tradedcomponents. We present a framework which first traces the influenceof macropolicy on the relative prices of exports, imports, andhome goods. It then accounts for each sector's degree of "tradability,"which is based on the importance of trade in sectoral income,and the influence of macroeconomic policy on sectoral prices.To illustrate the use of this approach, it is applied to a simulationof trade liberalization in Argentina. Our results suggest thateconomywide policies had substantial negative effects on boththe real exchange rate and the incentives to agricultural exports.     

Exchange Rate Pass‐Through,Domestic Competition,and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi

Import competition from China is pervasive in the sense that for many good categories, the competitive environment that U.S. firms face in these markets is strongly driven by the prices of Chinese imports, and so is their pricing decision. This paper quantifies the effect of the government‐controlled appreciation of the Chinese renminbi vis‐à‐vis the USD from 2005 to 2008 on the prices charged by U.S. domestic producers. In a panel spanning the period from 1994 to 2010 and including up to 519 manufacturing sectors, import price changes of Chinese goods pass into U.S. producer prices at an average rate of 0.7, while import price changes that can be traced back to exchange rate movements of other trade partners only have mild effects on U.S. prices. Further analysis points to the importance of trade integration, variable markups, and demand complementarities on the one side, and to the importance of imported intermediate goods on the other side as drivers of these patterns. Simulations incorporating these microeconomic findings reveal that a substantial revaluation of the renminbi would result in a pronounced increase in aggregate U.S. producer price inflation.     

Market liberalization within a country

China's B-share market, which used to be restricted to foreign investors, was partially opened up in February 2001 to Chinese local investors. We take this as a controlled experiment in cross-border trading on a small scale. We find mild but positive effects on the B-share market, with higher volumes, lower levels of volatility, lower bid–ask spreads and more liquidity after liberalization. Between A- and B-shares, price disparities narrowed; the correlation and the co-integration relationships became stronger; and the flow of information became more balanced. More new individual investors entered into the B-share market without crowding out existing institutional investors. Even though the liberalization measure is partial and one-way, it has helped to improve the quality of the B-share market, and our results lend no support to the popular claim that liberalization does nothing but help the existing foreign shareholders to cash out.     

The effect of a common currency on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade

This paper studies the effects of the European monetary unification on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade. First, we highlight empirical novel facts about the effects of monetary unification. We build country-level measures of the extensive margin of intra-EMU exports and describe how their volatilities evolved over time. We show that the adoption of a common currency has been associated with an increase of the volatility of the extensive margin of exports for most countries, and a decrease in the volatility of the extensive margin of exports for Germany. Second, we address this question theoretically and build a two-country version of the model of Ghironi and Melitz (2005) with endogenous entry, heterogenous firms, endogenous tradability, endogenous labor supply and sticky prices. We compare the volatility of the extensive margin of trade under fixed exchange rates and in a monetary union. Monetary unification does imply an increase in the volatility of the extensive margin of trade for pre-EMU followers (such as France or the Netherlands) and a decrease in the volatility of the extensive margin of trade for the leader (Germany). This pattern is qualitatively consistent with the data but arises only if monetary policy responds moderately to output.     

Pricing to market with trade liberalization: The role of market heterogeneity and product differentiation in India’s exports

This paper studies the links between pricing to market (PTM) and trade liberalization using data for India’s exports (at the 4-digit level of classification) during the economic reforms period (1992–2005). We estimate a PTM model for exports to the G3 and three other emerging markets (Brazil, China and South Africa), distinguishing homogeneous from differentiated goods and correcting for changes in the level of protection faced by India’s exporters (import tariffs in destination markets), inflation and openness in the export destination market, a macroeconomic policy index partly reflecting changes in exporter’s costs, the share of the exporter in the destination market and the share of the product in the exporter’s total exports. We find that market heterogeneity changes the level of PTM, but PTM does not significantly differ between homogeneous and differentiated products. Indian exporters practice PTM by absorbing exchange rate changes into their mark-up in G3 markets, where they face tougher competition, but fully pass-through exchange rate changes in emerging markets. On the contrary, Indian exporters seem to be taking advantage of trade liberalisation in destination markets by marginally increasing exporter currency prices into emerging markets but not into the G3. However, in the case of differentiated goods, we find this effect of trade liberalisation for both G3 and emerging markets.     

贸易自由化对制造业企业现金储蓄的影响——预防性动机还是投资挤压?

随着加入世界贸易组织,中国企业的出口及投资机会增多,但与此同时面临的进口竞争压力也与日俱增。本文基于1998-2007年中国工业企业数据和行业进口关税数据,以中国2001年加入世界贸易组织为准自然实验,采用双重差分法(DID)模型,首次系统地考察了贸易自由化对制造业企业现金储蓄的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)中国贸易自由化不仅没有提高国内制造业企业的现金储蓄率,反而通过投资挤压显著降低了企业的现金储蓄率,这与发达国家的相关研究结果大相径庭。(2)贸易自由化对企业现金储蓄的作用依赖于市场竞争程度,即关税减让会显著降低竞争性行业以及高集聚区域内企业的现金储蓄率。(3)高关税行业的关税降低后,进口竞争会侵蚀纯内销企业的投资机会,尤其是小规模企业,进而降低其现金储蓄。经过一系列检验后,结论依然成立。     

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements

International financial liberalization may alter saving–investment imbalances and patterns of capital flows across countries. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1990–1996, I examine how the liberalization of capital movements and financial services trade affects net private capital flows. Capital inflows tend to fall (rise) with the liberalization of commercial presence in banking and securities (insurance) services, possibly reflecting an increase (decrease) in saving. I find that capital account liberalization stimulates capital inflows, suggesting that better access to external financing helps sustain larger current account deficits. When cross-border trade is liberalized, capital inflows change insignificantly.     

Trade costs and multimarket collusion

Contrary to conventional wisdom, this article argues that trade liberalization may facilitate collusion and reduce welfare. With the help of a duopoly model in which firms interact repeatedly in multiple markets, we first show that, if trade costs (i.e., tariffs/transport costs) and discount factors are not too high, efficient cartel agreements necessitate the cross‐hauling of goods, as that entails lower deviation incentives. In this setting, we then demonstrate that reciprocal trade liberalization always raises total output when trade costs are within a range whose lower bound exceeds a threshold level, but may reduce total output (and thus be pro‐collusive) when trade costs are below that threshold level.     

China's Imported Inflation and Global Commodity Prices

In this paper, we outline China's imported inflation via global commodity prices. We show that the prices of China's imported commodities are strongly related to global commodity prices. Meanwhile, the final goods prices from upstream industries are strongly influenced by global commodity prices. However, this effect is partially offset by the production process—that is, the final goods prices in downstream industries are generally less affected by global prices. This indicates that China's commodity market has a close link with global commodity markets. Therefore, high global commodity prices generally squeeze profits in China's downstream industries; upstream industries generally benefit from high global commodity prices.     

政治冲突与国际贸易:韩国萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响分析

运用双重差分模型,依据中韩两国产品贸易数据,考量萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响。结果表明：萨德事件引发的中国消费者抵制运动使得韩国向中国的出口损失幅度达到近30%,受影响的产品主要集中在替代性较高的日常生活消费品领域,韩国对华电子产品贸易并未受到萨德事件冲突的影响,侧面说明了中国官方表现出相对理性与克制的态度,韩国向中国出口的后果更多地来自民间自发性消费抵制;冲突带来的进口替代效应使得第三方出口国如日本、美国、德国等国家从萨德事件中受益,这些国家扩大了对华出口,但是这种进口替代效应具有短期性,随着时间的推延逐渐消失。     

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

We exploit differences across U.S. states' exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity. Across states, trade-weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports, reduced state unemployment, and higher state hours worked. The effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack. A multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows, calibrated to match state-level trade data and migration flows, replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. The high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross-sectional patterns in later years. We use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the United States. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.     

中美贸易冲突的贸易后果 ——基于中美贸易细分产品数据的研究

基于双重差分模型,依据2014-2019年的中美贸易细分产品月度数据,考量中美贸易冲突对中美两国贸易的影响.结果显示:贸易冲突对中国从美国进口负向影响显著,且在样本期内具有平稳性与持续性;对中国对美出口负向效应显著,且在样本期内呈"倒U型"趋势.事件前期和中期,在"抢出口"效应作用下,贸易冲突对中国对美出口具有短期促进作用;事件后期,对中国对美出口的破坏影响显现.细分产品层面,贸易冲突对中国从美国资本品和消费品的进口负向影响显著,表明国家和个体层面都对贸易有所限制.出口方面,中国消费品出口所受的负向影响较强.同时,中美贸易冲突对于第三国贸易转移效应显著.