Fuzzy logic and financial risk. A proposed classification of financial risk to the cooperative sector

Applying fuzzy logic to financial indicators is not a well disseminated proposal in the accounting field. This methodology allows observing the results of financial ratios with a broader perspective, showing neither completely true nor completely false results, since they can take an undetermined truthfulness value within a set of values, applying the fuzzy logic theory. The objective of this work is to introduce the reader to the application of fuzzy logic on financial risk indicators, using the ratios of one of the sector one cooperatives of Ecuador, and thus validate the level of relevance of this indicator when compared to the standardized objective of the CAMEL model and its risk rating. To apply this theory, linguistic variables were used, the ranges of which were evaluated in 0–1 scales. It was determined that the fuzzy methodology, applied to financial risks, presents a greater level of relevance toward a good credit rating, ensuring a low level of risk and a very good solvency. However, in periods of low economic activity it would stagnate in this level due to the increased risk.     

Lógica difusa y el riesgo financiero. Una propuesta de clasificación de riesgo financiero al sector cooperativo

Apply fuzzy logic in financial indicators is a proposal not widespread in the accounting field. This methodology allows us to observe the results of financial ratios with a broader perspective, showing not completely true nor completely false results, because they can take an indeterminate truth value within a set of values, applying the theory of fuzzy logic. The aim of this paper is to present the reader with the application of fuzzy logic in indicators of financial risk, using ratios of the cooperatives segment each Ecuador, and thus validate the level of relevance that has this indicator to compared with the standard meta model and CAMEL ratings. To apply these theory linguistic variables were used, which were valued at scales ranges from 0 to 1. It is determined that the diffuse methodologist applied to financial risks presented a higher level of membership to good credit rating by ensuring a level of low risk and very good solvency. However, in periods of low economic activity it would stagnate at this level for the increased risk.     

协同创新项目中动态的利益冲突及应对策略研究

针对当前协同创新项目利益冲突研究中静态评价的不足,提出一种基于二元语义-QFD技术的多阶段动态利益冲突评价模型。首先利用模糊层次分析方法计算协同创新项目成功各指标权重,并运用二元语义模型得出利益冲突的严重程度,最后建立QFD模型得到利益冲突应对策略的重要程度,从而明确协同创新项目不同阶段的最严重利益冲突及最优应对策略。实证研究表明：不同利益冲突的严重程度在协同创新项目的各阶段呈现出不同排序,使得各阶段利益冲突应对策略的优先级产生显著差异。     

Ranking Journals Using Social Science Research Network Downloads

I use a new approach to rank journals, namely the number and percent frequency of articles a journal publishes that are heavily downloaded from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). I rank 18 accounting and finance journals, and I identify five journals not considered by the two most recent major published ranking studies of publications by accounting faculty, namely (in rank order): Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Accounting Studies, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Journal of Corporate Finance, and Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting. I show that financial accounting faculties are more likely to post their working papers to SSRN, and papers posted by financial faculties generate more downloads. I mitigate this bias in favor of the financial area by providing separate rankings based on authors in the financial versus non-financial areas.     

财政科技创新项目绩效审计评价指标设计及应用

财政项目支出绩效审计是政府绩效审计的重要内容,如何构建合理的绩效审计评价指标并运用科学的评价方法是获得客观的审计结论的重要前提。本文分析了绩效审计评价指标体系的构建原则,在此基础上构建了一项财政科技创新项目的绩效审计评价指标,并采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对该项目进行绩效审计评价,将定性评价的指标演算为量化的评价结论。最后,在结论部分,对模糊层次分析法在绩效审计评价中的运用进行了总结。     

区域金融生态评估方法比较研究

评估方法的运用极大地影响着金融生态评估结果的科学性和有效性。本文针对常用的正态标准化、专家法、标准差加权、因子分析以及层次分析法、模糊综合评价等方法进行比较研究,深入分析各种方法的优势和不足,为开展评估提供参考。     

An exploratory study of relative and incremental information content of two non-financial performance measures: Field study evidence on absence frequency and on-time delivery

In this exploratory field study, I test the relative and incremental information content of two non-financial performance measures compared to financial performance measures for future financial performance. The proprietary database used is from the contracts of the managers of 27 responsibility centers of a large Dutch service firm. Three years of monthly observations are used for the analysis.The accounting literature is ambiguous about whether non-financial measures have relative or incremental information content, or both, beyond lagged financial measures for future financial performance. Although it is often stated that non-financial performance measures are better indicators for future financial performance than lagged financial performance, the empirical accounting research evaluates the incremental contribution of non-financial measures beyond lagged financial measures.I find that in my research context the two non-financial measures absence frequency and on-time delivery do not have more relative information content than lagged financial measures. However, the non-financial measures have incremental information content beyond the lagged financial measures for both future costs and future revenues. In addition, the individual non-financial measures have different lags for costs and revenues.     

寿险公司理赔经理业绩评价模型研究

如何对理赔经理的业绩进行客观的评价目前越来越引起各寿险公司的关注,本文针对寿险公司理赔经理业绩评价运用客户关系图建立相应的KPI评价指标体系,并应用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,尝试将360度业绩评价法与模糊综合评价法相结合构建360度模糊综合评价模型。该模型有利于寿险公司更加客观地对理赔经理进行业绩评价。     

我国商业银行中小企业信贷风险评估体系的构建

开展中小企业贷款业务是商业银行优化信贷资产结构的重要措施,快速、准确评估其信贷风险是商业银行亟须解决的技术问题.经过长期实地调研,本文建立了适用于我国的中小企业信贷风险评估体系,其中,所建非财务指标体系,从行业环境、企业经营管理水平、经营者经验与素质、信用品质四方面进行评估;财务指标体系包括现金流流动负债比、净资产总资产比、息税前利润流动负债比、总资产周转速度、流动比率、现金流贷款比六个指标.以Logit统计回归模型为基础建立的评估模型,在分别评估非财务指标信息和财务指标信息后,加权相加两方面结果得到综合评估结果.实证检验证明,该评估体系的评估正确率达到95%以上.     

Audit committees’ social capital and financial reporting quality

We draw on social capital theory to examine the relationship between audit committee (AC) members’ social capital and financial reporting quality. Using US data for the period 2001–2010, our results suggest that non-AC directors’ social capital does not appear to be relevant to financial reporting quality. As far as AC members are concerned, our findings show a negative relationship between their social capital and financial reporting quality, suggesting a ‘dark side’ to social capital. Specifically, we find that sitting in multiple ACs (centrality) has a negative impact on reporting quality only for those AC members designated as financial experts. When other proxies for social capital are considered (connectedness, brokerage position and strong ties), our results show that the quality of financial reporting significantly decreases with the social capital of non-financial experts sitting in the AC. We contribute to prior research by: (i) relying on social capital theory, which is widely neglected in accounting research, (ii) using multiple metrics to capture the complex dimensions of social capital, and (iii) discriminating between the effects of financial and non-financial experts’ social capital on reporting quality. Our results suggest policy-makers might wish to limit financial experts’ multiple directorships as well as assess the actual contribution of non-financial experts to AC effectiveness.     

Waste Is Our Business,Inc.: The importance of non-financial information in the audit planning process

The objectives of this case are: (a) to alert students to the importance of non-financial information in the audit process; (b) to develop students’ ability to search for relevant financial and non-financial information in the audit planning process; and (c) to emphasize the importance of resisting the natural tendency to over-rely on financial information when conducting the financial statement audit. Students are asked to consider both financial and non-financial information when evaluating a client’s account balances. The client is in the waste business where there are a number of market, regulatory, and political factors that may affect the valuation of different accounts. Students are also directed to consider the importance of non-financial information in the integrated audit mandated by PCAOB Standard 5 and in fraud detection. The case can help students learn to explicitly consider non-financial information and understand the significance of integrating such information with financial data. The case is suitable for use in undergraduate or graduate auditing and assurance courses.     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

上市公司财务状况分类研究

如何对众多上市公司的财务状况进行合理分类 ,判别公司的财务处境 ,进而指导公司的财务行为 ,对于公司财务政策的制定具有重要意义。本文突破以往文献将企业财务状况仅仅基于“好”与“坏”标准进行简单分类、即财务困境企业和非财务困境企业的界限 ,在理论上首次将公司的财务状况分为五类 ,即财务闲置、财务充盈、财务均衡、财务困境和财务破产。实证研究表明 ,我国上市公司确存在五种财务状况 ,支持理论假设 ,进一步 ,我们发现 ,中国上市公司普遍存在财务状况不佳的现象 ,隐性财务破产的上市公司多于证券市场上实际披露的数目。     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

Applications of Fuzzy Regression in Actuarial Analysis

In this article, we propose several applications of fuzzy regression techniques for actuarial problems. Our main analysis is motivated, on the one hand, by the fact that several articles in the financial and actuarial literature suggest using fuzzy numbers to model interest rate uncertainty but do not explain how to quantify these rates with fuzzy numbers. Likewise, actuarial literature has recently focused some of its attention in analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR) because this is a key instrument for pricing insurance contracts. With these two ideas in mind, we show that fuzzy regression is suitable for adjusting the TSIR and discuss how to apply a fuzzy TSIR when pricing life insurance contracts and property‐liability policies. Finally, we reflect on other actuarial applications of fuzzy regression and develop with this technique the London Chain Ladder Method for obtaining Incurred But Not Reported Reserves.     

Does the financial analysts' usage of non-financial information influence the analysts' forecast accuracy? Some evidence from the Belgian sell-side financial analyst

This paper examines whether the use of non-financial information by sell-side financial analysts influences the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. The research findings, based on a survey of Belgian financial analysts, suggest that financial analysts who use more forward-looking information and more internal-structure information offer more accurate forecasts. Furthermore, the listed Belgian firms examined in this study have improved their non-financial information reporting over time. However, neither the frequency nor the quantity of non-financial information mentioned by financial analysts in their reports appears to have increased over time.     

The complementary relationship between financial and non-financial information in the biotechnology industry and the degree of investor sophistication

We examine whether financial and non-financial variables, separately and in tandem, are value relevant in explaining market returns, equity values and the degree of investment by sophisticated investors for a sample of drug development companies. Patent counts, number of collaborations and probability-adjusted portfolios of drugs under development are the non-financial information metrics used in this study. Earnings are the main financial information variable. We show that news about these non-financial measures is significantly associated with abnormal returns. We also find that earnings are value relevant in explaining cumulative abnormal returns and equity prices around earnings announcement dates despite the fact that R&D expenditures are large and usually expensed as incurred. We further show that non-financial information is value relevant in explaining annual returns, equity prices and degree of investment by (long-horizon) sophisticated investors. Moreover, non-financial variables are value relevant after controlling for financial variables suggesting that the two types of variables are complements.     

金融资产投资、杠杆率与企业风险承担——基于非金融企业的视角

本文以2007~2018年我国A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,运用动态面板系统广义矩估计法,研究杠杆率在金融资产投资与企业风险承担之间的中介效应影响,分析金融资产投资、杠杆率、企业风险承担三者之间的传导链条。研究发现:杠杆率在金融资产投资与企业风险承担水平之间发挥了部分中介效应;金融资产投资增加会直接导致企业风险承担水平上升,同时也会通过提高杠杆率间接地提升企业风险承担水平。本研究丰富了实体企业金融投资后果的相关文献,为实体企业的投资决策以及风险管理提供了参考,也为监管部门去杠杆防风险提供了经验证据。