有效预警上市公司违规的递延所得税异动指标和人工智能模型

2000-2017年,3434家A股上市公司样本中的47.79%至少有一次违规记录,每年平均有17%的公司违规,而监管机构平均需要2.7年查证并通告违规行为。我们用当年数据构建递延所得税异动指标,可有效预判违规,并发现监管机构未能识别这一指标的警示作用,实际激励了违规公司通过操纵递延所得税提高财务指标以规避稽查。进一步构建决策树模型,对违规事件实现样本外精准判别。本文揭示了A股公司大面积违规而稽查过程冗长迟缓这一重要现象,并分析了违规机制,指出了所得税数据在稽查违规中可以发挥的预警作用,为监管者和投资者提供有效预警上市公司违规行为的新指标和方法。     

CEO对董事会的影响力与上市公司违规犯罪北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文通过分析1999年至2012年所有A股上市公司的数据,研究了CEO对董事会的影响力对公司违规犯罪行为的影响。回归结果显示,CEO对董事会的影响力增加时,公司违规的可能性增加。在解决了CEO对董事会的影响力变量可能存在的内生性问题之后,该结论仍旧稳健。此外,本文还发现,公司所在地人与人之间信任程度越高,CEO对董事会的影响力对公司违规倾向的影响越弱;而所在地的风险偏好越高,这一影响则越强。最后,本文研究了CEO对董事会的影响力影响公司违规行为的一个潜在渠道——阻碍和延长稽查时间。本文的研究表明,作为重要的软性公司治理机制,上市公司、监察机构和投资者需对CEO对董事会的影响力给予重视。     

社会信用环境改善降低了企业违规吗?——来自“中国社会信用体系建设”的证据

以中国社会信用体系建设为准自然实验,本文采用2010—2020年沪深A股上市公司数据,考察了社会信用环境改善是否以及如何影响企业违规行为。实证发现:第一,社会信用环境改善显著抑制了企业违规行为;第二,社会信用环境改善显著降低了企业违规倾向和被稽查的可能性。同时,社会信用环境改善也显著降低了信息披露违规、经营违规和企业管理者违规;第三,这一抑制作用对于非国有企业、公司治理水平较差、内部控制质量较低以及营商环境较差地区的企业更为明显;第四,社会信用环境改善影响企业违规的机制包括降低代理成本、缓解融资约束以及提高信息透明度;第五,社会信用环境改善有效降低了企业经营风险和破产风险。     

近墨者黑:上市公司违规行为的“同群效应”

近年来,上市公司违规行为群发,本文利用2000-2016年沪深A股上市公司违规事件样本,从“同群效应”的角度探究违规行为的群体特征和影响因素。研究发现,上市公司违规行为存在显著的地区同群效应(“近墨者黑”),同地区其他上市公司的违规行为显著增加了该地区公司发生违规行为的概率;且信息披露型违规的同群效应更加明显。机制研究表明,企业违规决策的地区同群效应主要源于交流式学习和观察式学习的两种模仿作用机制。异质性分析表明,同一地区内,相同产权性质公司间的同群效应更明显。进一步研究显示,十八大之后违规行为的发生概率显著降低,地区同群效应显著减弱。本文研究揭示了违规行为的地源性特征,也从抑制违规传染视角实证支持了近年来的系列整治活动。     

卖空机制、双重治理与公司违规——基于市场化治理视角的实证检验

不同于以往基于制度监管或内部治理视角的研究,本文从市场化治理视角探讨了卖空机制对公司违规行为的影响效应.采用部分可观测Bivariable Probit模型和双重差分模型实证发现,卖空机制显著降低了标的公司的违规倾向,提升了违规稽查概率,且缩短了违规稽查时间.同时,标的公司违规发生年份的融券力度明显增加,这表明卖空者确实具有信息优势且对违规行为更为敏感.机制检验揭示,卖空机制通过治理效率和信息效率两条路径对违规行为发挥双重治理作用,即卖空机制强化了内部治理中大股东和独立董事对违规行为的监督干预,从而抑制了事前违规倾向;同时也增加了资本市场中的分析师关注及违规负面信息传播效率,进而提升了事后违规稽查概率.本文还发现,卖空机制的违规治理效果受到违规监管环境(法制监管、内部控制和行业违规)和标的公司个体特征(公司成长性、市值规模和股价波动性)的调节作用影响.     

上市公司会计违法违规行为与政府会计监管

本文对近年来由于会计违法违规行为而受到监管机构处分、处罚的上市公司进行研究,探寻其中的特征和规律,进而对那些"潜在"的违法违规公司的预警识别和监管防范提供有益的参考.文章还对上市公司实施新会计准则以后的主要变化和未来监管重点进行了分析,并对政府监管部门更有效地配置监管资源和提高监管效率提供了相关建议.     

递延所得税资产会计信息的价值相关性研究

本文采用我国A股上市公司2012至2014年数据,对递延所得税资产会计信息的价值相关性进行了实证检验。结果表明:所得税会计准则下,递延所得税资产的增加会导致企业价值的增加,递延所得税资产与企业价值显著正相关。同时也说明采用资产负债表债务法提高了所得税的会计信息质量,可以向外部提供决策有用性更高的所得税信息。     

产品市场竞争与上市公司违规

本文以2006-2013年沪深两地上市公司为研究样本,采用部分可观测Bivariate Probit模型来考察产品市场竞争对公司违规(含违规倾向和违规稽查)的影响。实证结果表明:产品市场竞争对公司违规行为具有"诱发"效果,即公司所处行业的产品市场竞争程度越高,则公司的违规倾向越高,其违规行为被稽查的可能性却越低;产品市场竞争对公司违规的"诱发"效果在经营违规中表现得更加明显。进一步的研究发现,市场监管环境的改进对上述的"诱发"效果存在着一定的积极调节作用,但是整体上还有较大改进空间。本文的研究结论对于有效治理公司违规行为具有一定的政策借鉴意义。     

高管连锁、同业监督与公司违规

本文选取2011—2018年度A股上市公司为研究样本,以具有竞争关系的同业公司间的高管连锁作为同业监督的渠道,检验了同业监督对目标公司违规的影响。研究发现:(1)同业监督能有效抑制目标公司违规倾向,且这一影响当且仅当连锁公司是同业公司时存在;(2)同业竞争是同业监督的基础,在行业集中度低和行业增长率低的行业中,同业监督对目标公司违规的抑制作用更强;(3)目标公司的政治关联会瓦解同业监督对公司违规的抑制作用;(4)区分违规行为类型后发现,同业监督对经营违规的抑制作用最强,对信息披露违规次之,对领导人违规几乎没有效果。本研究丰富了公司违规监督机制的内容,也提供了辩证看待高管同业兼任的新视角。     

信息披露监管的外部性——同行信息传递与市场学习

本文使用2001—2008年中国A股上市公司为样本,以信息披露违规公司的处罚公告为切入点,从信息披露监管外部性的角度,研究信息披露监管的有效性。实证结果表明,同行竞争者对处罚公告产生显著的信息传递效应,并且信息传递效应的程度与公司会计信息质量显著正相关,这说明监管当局对违规公司查处的信息披露监管产生了显著的外部性,并且这种外部性与会计信息质量显著正相关。同时,本文还发现会计信息质量的改进与同行公司对处罚公告的市场反应显著负相关,说明信息披露监管的外部性对公司信息披露行为有显著影响,使同行公司管理者在这一过程中产生了显著的市场学习行为。本文丰富了信息披露监管及其外部性的相关理论,并对上市公司信息披露监管具有重要的参考价值。     

Fraudulent financial reporting in China: Evidence from corporate renaming

Using a sample of listed Chinese companies during 2010–2019, we examine whether corporate renaming is associated with fraudulent financial reporting. We find that companies that change their corporate names without making underlying changes to business fundamentals are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud. The positive association between corporate renaming and financial reporting fraud is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises and companies with a lower ownership concentration. There is further evidence that corporate renaming is more likely to be associated with disclosure-related fraud (e.g., failure to disclose or delayed disclosure) and that the likelihood of fraudulent behavior increases with the frequency of corporate renaming. Overall, the findings of this study provide evidence of a new red flag for regulators and investors investigating financial fraud. This study is timely and has policy implications for market regulators hoping to establish and improve emerging capital markets in which the information environment is generally considered weak and opaque.     

非处罚性监管与公司税收规避——基于财务报告问询函的证据

本文基于税收规避视角研究中国制度背景下问询函性质非处罚性监管的经济后果。实证结果发现:财务报告问询函可以抑制公司税收规避行为,且财务报告问询函总数越多、针对同一财务报告问询次数越多、财务报告问询函问题数量越多,意味着问询函监管强度越高,公司税收规避降低幅度越大。同时,从细分特征来看,当财务报告问询函涉及税收或研发相关内容时,公司税收规避程度更低。进一步地,在融资约束程度较低和税收征管强度较高的公司中,税收规避程度较低,问询函的监管效果较好。     

海外上市中国概念股危机分析及启示

中国海外上市公司因财务舞弊、信息披露不透明、公司治理水平低下等问题引起市场参与者的广泛关注。本文介绍了2010年以来监管部门、市场研究机构以及评级公司的多份报告,针对其中揭示的问题进行了简要的分析和评述,认为应正确认识监管部门、研究机构和评级公司的报告,为我国上市公司和证券市场的健康发展提供借鉴和改进。     

Digital finance and corporate financial fraud

Corporate financial fraud harms the interests of investors and affects the healthy development of the capital market. Understanding corporate financial fraud has important academic value and practical significance. Digital finance been rapidly developing over the past few years and scholars are investigating strategies for using digital finance as a tool to curb corporate financial fraud. This paper empirically examines the direct effect, intrinsic mechanism, and heterogeneous effect of digital finance on corporate financial fraud based on panel data of A-share listed corporations in China from 2011 to 2020. Results show that digital finance significantly inhibits corporate financial fraud. The breadth of coverage and depth of usage within digital finance show inhibitory effects on corporate financial fraud. This suggests that a combination of coverage and depth is needed to improve the success of digital finance on corporate financial fraud. The internal mechanisms suggest that digital finance inhibits corporate financial fraud by alleviating financing constraints, reducing corporate leverage, and decreasing agency costs. The heterogeneity analysis shows digital finance has a greater inhibitory effect for large-scale corporates, state-owned corporates, and corporates in areas with low degree of marketization. Our findings can provide reference for financial institutions, investors, analysts, and regulators to improve the quality of decision-making.     

基于案例推理的财务报告舞弊识别研究

上市公司财务报告舞弊对资本市场建设和投资者利益保护掣肘已久。以2003~2012年我国沪深 A 股财务报告舞弊公司及其配对公司为样本,依据“舞弊钻石”理论和现有文献提取舞弊识别指标,基于案例推理思想构建财务报告舞弊识别模型。研究发现,较之于非舞弊公司,舞弊公司通常面临更大的盈利压力和偿债压力,成长能力更弱,事务所变更现象更为普遍,被出具非标准审计意见的概率更高。基于仿兰氏距离的案例推理模型对测试集样本的识别总正确率为66.7%。     

新所得税准则对上市公司盈利能力影响分析

新所得税准则要求企业运用资产负债表债务法进行所得税核算。资产负债表债务法通过比较资产负债的计税基础计算出应纳税暂时性差异和可抵扣暂时性差异,进而确认当期递延所得税,调整当期的所得税费用,所得税费用的调整会影响企业当期的净利润,进而影响股东的每股收益。因此,暂时性差异会影响企业的盈利能力。本文采用统计分析方法,分析新所得税准则对上市公司盈利能力的影响。     

Quality of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure and Cost of Equity Capital: Lessons from China

This article explores the relationship between the quality of corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure and the cost of equity capital by analyzing the financial data and CSR reports of A-share listed firms in China from 2008 to 2014. The quality of the CSR disclosure is shown to be negatively related to the cost of equity capital of the listed firms. This negative correlation proves to be more prominent among firms of environmentally sensitive industries. Taking the ownership of the listed firms into consideration, it is further confirmed that the negative relationship between the CSR disclosure and the cost of equity capital is of higher significance for state-owned enterprises. Our findings also empirically demonstrate that the quality of CSR disclosure is more negatively related to the cost of equity capital among the large listed firms than the smaller ones.     

Governança corporativa: uma análise de sua relação com o desempenho econômico-financeiro de empresas cotadas no Brasil nos anos de 2010–2012

The objective of this research is to examine whether there is a relationship between corporate governance and financial performance in Brazilian companies listed on BM & FBOVESPA, considering years 2010–2012. Therefore, data were collected from the Divext –system of disclosure of the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM) and Net Software Enterprises –and also the CVM. Regression was used with panel data to analyze the relationship. The result showed a direct relationship between perceived market value of firms and level of disclosure. This result illustrated that the higher the disclosure of information, the higher the market value of companies. Besides the significant relationship between market value and corporate governance, a relationship was found between Corporate Governance Index and two variables: Tobin's q and Return On Assets.     

Tax Aggressiveness and Accounting Fraud

There are competing arguments and mixed prior evidence on whether firms that are aggressive in their financial reporting exhibit more or less tax aggressiveness. Our research contributes to resolving this issue by examining the association between aggressive tax reporting and the incidence of alleged accounting fraud. Relying on several proxies for tax aggressiveness to triangulate our evidence, we generally find that tax aggressive U.S. public firms are less likely to commit accounting fraud. However, we caution that our results are sensitive to how tax aggressiveness is measured. More specifically, four (two) of the five (three) proxies for firms’ effective tax rates (book‐tax differences) load positively (negatively) during the 1981–2001 period, implying that fraud firms are less tax aggressiveness. Our inferences persist when we isolate the 1995–2001 period in which accounting impropriety steeply rose and corporate tax compliance steeply fell. Moreover, we continue to find that tax aggressive firms are less apt to fraudulently manipulate their financial statements when we apply factor analysis to identify tax avoidance with a common factor extracted from the underlying proxies and match on propensity scores to ensure that the fraud and nonfraud samples have very similar nontax characteristics.