人口结构变迁、老龄化与我国房地产价格变动研究——基于省际门限面板模型的实证分析

在我国人口老龄化的背景下,人口年龄结构的改变是影响房地产价格变动的关键性因素,本文运用门限面板模型研究了老龄化对房地产价格所产生的影响。实证结果表明,现阶段人口数量的增长确实是推动我国房地产价格上升的主要因素,人口增长率与我国房地产价格之间存在显著的门限效应,其影响程度在老龄化三个区间有显著差异,但我国的老龄化并未像其他发达国家那样对房地产市场产生强烈的负面作用,相反却表现为一定程度的正影响。本文的研究结论对我国房地产市场调控及人口政策调整具有一定的政策启示。     

家庭人口年龄结构、养老保险与家庭金融资产配置

在人口老龄化程度加深和金融市场快速发展的背景下,研究家庭人口年龄结构、家庭成员参加养老保险情况和家庭资产配置三者之间的关系有重要意义。通过运用中国家庭金融调查2011年数据,分析家庭人口年龄结构老化程度对家庭成员参加基本养老保险情况的影响,以及二者对家庭金融资产配置的影响。研究表明:家庭人口年龄结构老化程度越高,家庭成员参加养老保险的比例越高,该效应城市高于农村;家庭人口年龄结构老化程度越高,家庭持有金融资产的概率和比重越低;养老保险对家庭金融资产产生收入效应和替代效应,家庭收入较低时,替代效应较大。     

人口年龄结构、家庭资产结构与住房财富效应

本文基于中国省级年度面板数据,对住房财富效应与人口年龄结构、家庭资产结构之间的关系进行实证研究。结果发现:我国大部分地区存在正向住房财富效应,且人口年龄结构对各省市住房财富效应的边际影响为正,但老龄人口比重比少年人口比重的边际影响更大;住房资产占比对大部分省市住房财富效应的边际影响为负且影响程度较小;此外,随着老龄人口比重的增加其边际影响呈现下降趋势,而少儿人口比重的增加会导致其边际影响逐步上升,住房资产占比的提高会使其负向边际影响逐渐增大。     

人口老龄化、货币政策效果及传导渠道

我国已步入老龄化社会，人口年龄结构变化对宏观经济环境和经济政策将产生深远影响。在此背景下，研究人口老龄化对货币政策效果的影响机制具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文在理论分析的基础上，首先选取1990—2021年中国宏观时间序列数据，使用SVAR基准模型和IVAR拓展模型对人口年龄结构影响货币政策的总体效果进行实证分析，进而选取中国1994—2020年30个样本省市自治区的面板数据，将老年抚养比引入货币政策效果方程。时间序列和面板数据的实证结果均发现，人口老龄化削弱了数量型和价格型货币政策的有效性，同时面板数据证明了人口年龄结构是货币政策效果区域异质性产生的原因之一。最后本文进一步探索人口老龄化削弱货币政策效果的具体渠道，通过对沪深交易所部分A股上市公司和上市商业银行微观数据进行分析，发现人口老龄化可通过信贷渠道和利率渠道削弱货币政策效果。本文结论提示，在制定和执行货币政策时，有必要考虑人口因素。     

人口年龄结构与金融结构——宏观事实与微观机制

人口年龄结构是影响宏观经济的重要因素,不仅能够通过“人口红利”影响经济增长,也能通过金融资产需求作用于金融结构,进而影响经济增长。首先,本文基于宏观数据发现人口年龄结构与金融结构之间存在紧密联系,伴随老年人口占比的提高,金融结构更偏向间接融资,且以金融行为来衡量的风险偏好程度显著下降;其次,本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查数据,从微观主体对金融资产需求的角度研究人口年龄结构对金融结构的影响机制,分析家庭人口年龄结构对风险资产参与行为及风险态度的影响。实证结果表明,家庭老年人口占比越高,家庭参与股票或基金投资意愿及比重越低;对于已持有风险资产的家庭,老年人口占比提高,家庭风险资产持有比重会降低。此外,家庭人口年龄结构会影响风险态度,家庭老年人口占比提升会显著降低风险偏好程度,这是其影响家庭风险资产参与行为的重要渠道。     

内蒙古农户与牧户消费需求比较

本文利用2000-2002年内蒙古各地区农户与牧户消费的混合数据,采用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)比较了农户与牧户基本消费支出、边际消费倾向、边际预算份额、需求的价格弹性和收入弹性等方面的需求特征,发现内蒙农户与牧户在消费行为方面存在较大差异,在此基础上得出了本文的结论及由此受到的启示.     

人口年龄结构、房价对城镇居民消费的影响研究

依据我国2000-2018年的省际面板数据,运用中介效应模型和系统GMM模型,考量了人口年龄结构、房价和城镇居民消费三者之间的关系。结果表明：三者之间存在着显著的部分中介效应,即房价在人口年龄结构和城镇居民消费之间发挥着中介作用;少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和房价对城镇居民消费具有促进效应,但与房价的交互作用削弱了这种正向影响。鉴此,应积极推进宽松人口生育政策,开拓老年消费市场,完善住房信贷体系,健全社会保障体系。     

基于ELES模型的三明市农村居民消费结构研究

本文运用扩展线性支出系统（ELES）模型，通过研究三明市农村居民消费结构、边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性、需求价格弹性和最低生活保障金额等各项指标。作出关于三明市农村居民收入、消费意识和消费结构等方面的基本判断，为政府扩大内需、推动经济增长提供相关决策依据。     

年龄结构对家庭资产配置的影响及其区域差异北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文运用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,细致考察了生命周期、年龄结构对家庭资产配置和财富构成的影响及区域间影响差异。研究发现,老龄家庭对房产、银行储蓄的持有比重更大,而对股票、基金等风险资产的持有比重更小;家庭老龄人口比重的提高,会促进家庭银行储蓄和房产的投资,同时,会抑制家庭对股市、基金等金融市场的参与程度;人口学变量如家长性别、受教育程度、婚姻状况、家庭规模等和家庭财富、收入对家庭财富构成也都具有显著影响。进一步研究发现,年龄结构在中西部地区,对城镇居民家庭股票、基金投资行为的抑制效应要高于东部地区,而对家庭房产投资的边际影响要低于东部地区,同时,年龄及年龄结构可以通过降低家庭风险偏好和提高预防性储蓄进而影响家庭金融投资决策。     

人口结构对储蓄率的影响——基于分省面板数据的分析

根据生命周期消费理论,理性人会将工作阶段收入在终生进行平均,这会带来消费和储蓄的变化,推而广之,随着整个社会人口年龄结构的变化,储蓄率会相应变化,文章通过实证发现2000年来的储蓄率变化在很大程度上取决于少儿抚养比的下降,当整个社会工作年龄人口比重变大时储蓄率会上升,实证结果有利于厘清关于储蓄率变化的误解,也有助于我们正确认识中国的储蓄率变化并根据情况完善和调整相应政策。     

Wealth, Income, and Optimal Insurance

This article considers the decision to purchase insurance against possible losses of a property or wealth. The decision involves a standard economic trade‐off between the benefit of protection against loss and the cost of insurance premium. The premium is paid out of the income and decreases the consumption of other goods and services, rather than out of wealth and decreases the property or wealth. The demand for insurance depends mainly on the income and preferences. As a result, unlike in the standard model, a fair premium is neither necessary nor sufficient for the optimality of full coverage insurance. Rather, the individuals with higher incomes purchase full coverage insurance even at unfair prices of insurance while the individuals with lower income purchase partial coverage insurance at a fair price.     

收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究

已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。     

农村家庭消费需求调查分析——以辽宁省沈阳市为例

为了解当前沈阳市农村居民家庭的收支水平、收入来源结构、消费支出构成及其变化趋势,尤其关注价格变化对农村居民消费的影响程度,本文选取120户农村居民家庭进行了实地问卷调研。调研显示:样本家庭生活环境进一步改善,生活便利程度提高,收支盈余比例增加,收入同比基本持平;样本家庭支出同比持平,其中日常生活支出及农业生产支出占总支出比重增加;样本家庭大宗消费品普及,新型大宗消费品增加,农业生产资料价格对消费影响程度较大,计划消费的意愿低迷;农村金融服务水平明显提高,农民贷款需求基本得到满足,新型农村金融机构支持"三农"的作用尚未体现。     

Saving by buying ahead: stockpiling in response to lump-sum payments

By purchasing larger quantities of goods and saving them for future consumption households are able to reduce transaction costs and acquire goods at a lower price per unit, presuming they can manage the transportation and storage costs. This study uses variations in state income tax refunds over time to estimate consumption responses to lump-sum payments. Households purchase around 20 per cent more of easily stored toilet paper in the months in which tax refunds are issued, but do not increase purchases of perishables such as bread and eggs. In addition to purchasing more goods at a lower per-unit price, households also appear to increase the time until their next purchase, which implies that they are saving goods for consumption over time. These in-kind savings allow people to smooth their consumption over time, much like pecuniary savings. Government payments that provide lump-sum payments can benefit consumers by providing additional liquidity to buy and store goods at a lower cost.     

内蒙古地区城镇居民肉类消费需求研究

本文以具有典型内陆消费特点的内蒙古地区为例,通过构建修正的AIDS模型即LA/AIDS模型和扩展的LES模型即ELES模型,利用2000年到2011年内蒙古城镇居民肉类消费的时间序列数据,对该地区城镇居民消费结构的变化趋势进行了实证分析。结果表明：当收入增加时,人们会更多的消费羊肉和牛肉,在考虑价格因素后,猪、牛、羊、鸡四种主要肉类消费支出份额趋于平衡;牛羊肉自价格弹性绝对值较大,但四种肉类都属于生活必需品。     

The effects of population aging on optimal redistributive taxes in an overlapping generations model

The impact of population aging on the steady-state solution to an Ordover and Phelps (J. Public Econ. 12:1?C26, 1979) overlapping generations optimal nonlinear income tax problem with two types of worker and quasilinear-in-leisure preferences is investigated. A decrease in the rate of population growth, which leads to an aging population, increases the relative price of consumption per person in retirement, which tends to decrease optimal consumption for retirees of both skill types. Nevertheless, it is also shown that the optimal marginal income tax rates are independent of the rate of population growth. In addition, the steady-state interest rate unambiguously declines when the rate of population growth declines. Resulting adjustments in production plans have an ambiguous effect on the aggregate wage rate. This article identifies factors contributing to an increase in the aggregate wage when the population ages, namely normality of consumption in retirement, complementarity between capital and labor in production, and a large capital deepening effect relative to the increase in dependency owing to demographic change. Depending on the sign of this wage effect, ambiguities may arise in the direction of change in the optimal steady-state consumption and production plans. However, when the dependency effect is sufficiently strong, it is possible to sign the direction of change in all production and consumption plans. Moreover, regardless of the direction of change in optimal consumption plans, the absolute value of the changes in consumption plans are smaller for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled when utility is time-separable and preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion. Adopting, instead, a quasilinear-in-consumption specification of preferences sharpens the comparative statics of consumption allocations, but introduces ambiguity into the effect of the rate of population growth on the optimal marginal income tax rate.     

Price Stability in Economies with Habit Persistence

This paper shows that the divine‐coincidence does not hold in a sticky price model with external habit if a time‐varying tax rate on labor income is not implemented to fully eliminate the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market. The required labor income tax rate is inversely related to the risk‐free real interest rate and the markup in the goods market, but it is proportional to the degree of external habit. Under this circumstance, the optimal monetary policy commands a countercyclical interest rate, having a perfect negative correlation with tax rate in the sticky price model with external habit. If a time‐invariant tax is the only fiscal instrument, then the degree of external habit entails a gap between the private marginal rate of substitution between consumption and labor and the social marginal rate of substitution, generating an endogenous trade‐off between the stabilization of welfare‐relevant output gap and inflation. Under this circumstance, price stability is not the optimal policy. The monetary policy authority should optimally try to undo the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market by deviating from price stability.     

A fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades

In this paper we construct a two-country search model to determine the nominal exchange rate between two fiat monies. Our model allows agents to use any currency to trade for goods in all countries. However, search frictions restrict agents’ opportunities for instantaneous arbitrage, and hence make the nominal exchange rate determinate. The nominal exchange rate depends on the two countries’ economic fundamentals, including the stocks and growth rates of the two monies. Direct exchanges between currencies are essential and they imply a nominal exchange rate that is different from the relative price between the two currencies in the goods markets. There are persistent violations of the law of one price and purchasing power parity in equilibrium, despite the fact that prices are perfectly flexible and all goods are tradeable between countries. Nominal and real exchange rates can move together in the steady state in response to money growth shocks.     

Did the National Minimum Wage Affect UK Prices?*

One potential channel through which the effects of the minimum wage could be directed is that firms that employ minimum‐wage workers could have passed on any higher labour costs resulting from the minimum wage in the form of higher prices. This study looks at the effects of the minimum wage on the prices of UK goods and services by comparing prices of goods and services produced by industries in which UK minimum‐wage workers make up a substantial share of total costs with prices of goods and services that make less use of minimum‐wage labour. Using sectoral‐level price data matched to Labour Force Survey data on the share of minimum‐wage workers in each sector, it is hard to find much evidence of significant price changes in the months that correspond immediately to the uprating of the national minimum wage. However, over the longer term, prices in several minimum‐wage sectors – notably, take‐away food, canteen meals, hotel services and domestic services – do appear to have risen significantly faster than prices in non‐minimum‐wage sectors. These effects were particularly significant in the four years immediately after the introduction of the minimum wage.     

Time varying consumption covariance and dynamics of the equity premium: Evidence from the G7 countries

We examine implications of time-varying correlation and covariance between excess equity returns and consumption growth for the equity premium of the G7 countries. We find that the correlation and covariance are higher when there is a negative shock to labor income and a positive shock to returns. The combined effect is that the correlation and covariance are countercyclical and so is the equity premium. We test asset pricing models with time-varying consumption risk and find that the conditional price of risk is generally positive. These results survive several robustness checks. Our results highlight the importance of labor income for understanding dynamics of the equity premium.