美国“新经济”对传统经济学的挑战

美国经济以“两高两低”的运行动态势引起经济界的关注，理论界主伙这种“新经济”是对传统经济学的挑战，分析传统经济的工工具菲力浦斯曲线再次失效，本文通过分析菲力浦斯曲线的研究背景和分析框架，指出建立在全球化和信息化基础上的美国“新经济”，已对菲力浦斯曲线做了有效突破，美国“新经济”的运行态势显示全球经济有充分的张力与活力，相应的，当代经济学应具有新的突破与发展，以弥补传统经济学的“空白”。     

从理想到对策--金融科技视角下的“第二增长曲线”

金融科技助力金融机构“二次成长”商业银行近期引入了“第二曲线”的理念,探讨传统模式进化的可能性。按照该理念,如果金融机构能在“第一曲线”(即期初发展阶段)到达巅峰前,找到再次腾飞的“第二曲线”,机构将实现可持续增长截至2021年底,我国金融机构表内规模已达300万亿元,表外规模100万亿元其中商业银行表内规模近270万亿元,表外理财规模近30万亿元,传统业务规模增速放缓,息差下降的环境下,商业银行需要找到新抓手.实现自身的“二次成长”     

债券市场收益率曲线代表性的内涵——兼论收益率曲线的有效性

目前债券市场上的收益率曲线，市场参与者认为其有效性不高， 其中的原因并不是收益率曲线的构建方法存在问题，而是因为收益率曲线代表性不足，而收益率曲线代表程度低的原因主要有两个：一是样本本身不完整，二是债券市场功能不完善。     

菲利普斯曲线到总供给曲线的关系研究

研究菲利普斯曲线推导总供给曲线的推导具有重要的理论意义。菲利普斯曲线是关于失业率与通货膨胀率关系的函数,失业率与通货膨胀率具有反向的变化的关系。总供给曲线是关于商品价格和产出的函数关系,商品价格上升时,产出往往增加,两者具有正向关系。依靠奥肯定律和产品价格和成本之间的关系,本文根据菲利普斯曲线腿带总供给曲线。     

商业银行转型发展的第二曲线初探

“为了保持不变,一切都将改变①。”进入二十一世纪,技术的进步、科技的变革像加速引擎一样推动着时代的车轮滚滚向前,若以十年为一个时间段观察,每过十年,都将是对人们生活的一种颠覆。这期间,有的企业浴火重生,有的则瓦解消融,“对于一家企业来说,真正的难题不是拥有伟大的梦想,而是你在半夜一身冷汗地惊醒时发现,梦想变成了一场噩梦②。”甚至有时许多变革并非来自行业内部,而是来自于完全不同的领域。“毁灭你,与你有何相干③?”这种“降维打击④”式的冲击像是悬在所有企业家头上的“达摩克利斯之剑⑤”,令他们时刻如履薄冰,同时也激励着他们与时间赛跑,创造着一个又一个新的增长点,不断开启企业发展的第二曲线。     

探析中国基准收益率曲线的完善

经过30多年来的渐进式改革,我国利率市场化改革取得了巨大成就,利率管制基本放开,但构建完善的基准收益率曲线已成当务之急。本文在阐述我国基准收益率曲线发展现状的基础上,认为国债收益率曲线最适宜成为最主要的基准收益率曲线,并进一步探讨了我国国债收益率曲线存在的问题,分析了相应的完善措施。     

让创新成为工商银行的快速成长方式

台湾宏基电脑公司总裁施振荣的“微笑曲线”（Smiling Curve）概念，用一个开口向上的抛物线来描述个人电脑制造流程中各个环节的附加价值，其价值链中上游研究开发和原料零件以及下游营销售后服务等等利润相对较大，而中间的组装加工环节利润较小。由于曲线类似微笑的嘴形，因此被形象地称为“微笑曲线”。     

数字经济

2008年银行间市场国债收益率曲线变化情况 2008年，债券市场收益率曲线整体大幅下移。以银行间市场国债收益率曲线为例．大致可分为三个阶段：第一阶段为1—3月份，收益率曲线平行下移。3月末．国债各关键期限收益率较年初下降幅度均在30个基点以上。第二阶段为4-6月份．收益率曲线陡峭化上移。各期限国债收益率增加幅度在30-60个基点之间．其中30年期国债收益率增加最多，     

用普惠金融业务开启银行业第二发展曲线

受国内外金融经济环境影响,经济结构调整步伐逐步加快,作为典型的"亲周期"行业,银行业正面临着资本约束趋紧、利差空间收窄、利率市场化进程加快的现状,传统的规模扩张式发展已难以为继,创新驱动与转型发展成为银行业变革的关键。打破"规模银行"固有盈利模式,发展普惠金融业务是现代商业银行适应外部经济环境变化,在传统第一发展曲线之外积极探寻和构建第二发展曲线的重要抓手之一。本文将以中小企业普惠金融业务为例,详述普惠金融业务在银行业寻找新的发展模式和利润增长点中的作用。     

基准利率和基准收益率曲线的内涵及关系探讨

我国相继推出基准利率SHIBOR和银行间国债收益率曲线、央行票据收益率曲线与政策性金融债收益率曲线等三条基准收益率曲线,备受瞩目。那么,基准利率和基准收益率曲线的内涵有什么不同?二者之间是怎样的关系?搞清楚这些问题,对引导我国基准利率的选择和培育及完善基准收益率曲线的构建,提高货币当局宏观调控效率和促进我国金融市场的发展,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文对这些问题进行了深入探讨。     

掉期曲线变动加剧,波动率期限结构扁平化——2019年人民币外汇衍生品市场回顾与展望

2019年人民币外汇掉期曲线形态变动非常之大,大方向上保持震荡上行,中美利差的变化是核心影响因素;而人民币期权波动率走势主要受中美贸易战影响,期限结构扁平化。展望2020年,由于中美利差有望震荡走低,但波幅及方向性将明显减弱,掉期市场可能会陷入窄幅盘整;随着中美贸易争端缓解,人民币期权波动率或于上半年底部震荡、下半年上扬。     

How (un) ethical are you?

Answer true or false: "I am an ethical manager." If you answered "true," here's an Uncomfortable fact: You're probably wrong. Most of us believe we can objectively size up a job candidate or a venture deal and reach a fair and rational conclusion that's in our, and our organization's, best interests. But more than two decades of psychological research indicates that most of us harbor unconscious biases that are often at odds with our consciously held beliefs. The flawed judgments arising from these biases are ethically problematic and undermine managers' fundamental work--to recruit and retain superior talent, boost individual and team performance, and collaborate effectively with partners. This article explores four related sources of unintentional unethical decision making. If you're surprised that a female colleague has poor people skills, you are displaying implicit bias--judging according to unconscious stereotypes rather than merit. Companies that give bonuses to employees who recommend their friends for open positions are encouraging ingroup bias--favoring people in their own circles. If you think you're better than the average worker in your company (and who doesn't?), you may be displaying the common tendency to overclaim credit. And although many conflicts of interest are overt, many more are subtle. Who knows, for instance, whether the promise of quick and certain payment figures into an attorney's recommendation to settle a winnable case rather than go to trial? How can you counter these biases if they're unconscious? Traditional ethics training is not enough. But by gathering better data, ridding the work environment of stereotypical cues, and broadening your mind-set when you make decisions, you can go a long way toward bringing your unconscious biases to light and submitting them to your conscious will.     

关于电子商务及员工管理一席谈

最近CA公司董事长兼首席执行官王嘉廉先生在清华大学就电子商务的发展及CA公司的人力资源管理等问题向清华师生发表了演讲,其中不乏较新颖的观点本刊整理如下,以供读者品评。     

Failing by design

It's hardly news that business leaders work in increasingly uncertain environments, where failures are bound to be more common than successes. Yet if you ask executives how well, on a scale of one to 10, their organizations learn from failure, you'll often get a sheepish "Two-or maybe three" in response. Such organizations are missing a big opportunity: Failure may be inevitable but, if managed well, can be very useful. A certain amount of failure can help you keep your options open, find out what doesn't work, create the conditions to attract resources and attention, make room for new leaders, and develop intuition and skill. The key to reaping these benefits is to foster "intelligent failure" throughout your organization. McGrath describes several principles that can help you put intelligent failure to work. You should decide what success and failure would look like before you start a project. Document your initial assumptions, test and revise them as you go, and convert them into knowledge. Fail fast-the longer something takes, the less you'll learn-and fail cheaply, to contain your downside risk. Limit the number of uncertainties in new projects, and build a culture that tolerates, and sometimes even celebrates, failure. Finally, codify and share what you learn. These principles won't give you a means of avoiding all failures down the road-that's simply not realistic. They will help you use small losses to attain bigger wins over time.     

领取绿色通行证进军国际绿色市场--谈国际绿色贸易壁垒中的环境标志问题

贴有环境标志的绿色产品将成为21世纪国际市场消费的主导，意味着国际间的绿色营销、绿色贸易大潮的到来。实行环境标志是当今国际贸易的潮流，因而，持有绿色标志，就意味着领取了进入国际绿色市场的通行证，就意味着打破了国际绿色贸易壁垒。     

傅格礼 引航中欧产业直通车

海外私募股权投资基金在华"淘金"者众多。作为目前中国规模最大的欧元基金,曼达林基金创始人博格礼十分看好中国潜力。     

Developing Students' Technical Knowledge and Case‐Based Reasoning Skills: Three Short Cases in Financial Accounting

The following three cases require you to identify and evaluate alternative accounting methods that can be applied to independent case scenarios. In the first scenario, you will evaluate alternative accounting methods relating to revenue recognition for a theatrical production. In the second scenario, you will evaluate alternative accounting methods relating to capitalizing or expensing costs associated with renovations at a golf course. In the third scenario, you will evaluate alternative accounting methods relating to capitalizing or expensing the cost of a signing bonus paid to a professional athlete.     

Managing for creativity

A company's most important asset isn't raw materials, transportation systems, or political influence. It's creative capital--simply put, an arsenal of creative thinkers whose ideas can be turned into valuable products and services. Creative employees pioneer new technologies, birth new industries, and power economic growth. If you want your company to succeed, these are the people you entrust it to. But how do you accommodate the complex and chaotic nature of the creative process while increasing efficiency, improving quality, and raising productivity? Most businesses haven't figured this out. A notable exception is SAS Institute, the world's largest privately held software company. SAS makes Fortune's 100 Best Companies to Work For list every year. The company has enjoyed low employee turnover, high customer satisfaction, and 28 straight years of revenue growth. What's the secret to all this success? The authors, an academic and a CEO, approach this question differently, but they've come to the same conclusion: SAS has learned how to harness the creative energies of all its stakeholders, including its customers, software developers, managers, and support staff. Its framework for managing creativity rests on three guiding principles. First, help employees do their best work by keeping them intellectually engaged and by removing distractions. Second, make managers responsible for sparking creativity and eliminate arbitrary distinctions between "suits" and "creatives". And third, engage customers as creative partners so you can deliver superior products. Underlying all three principles is a mandate to foster interaction--not just to collect individuals' ideas. By nurturing relationships among developers, salespeople, and customers, SAS is investing in its future creative capital. Within a management framework like SAS's, creativity and productivity flourish, flexibility and profitability go hand in hand, and work/life balance and hard work aren't mutually exclusive.     

养老金制度变迁的一个新解释——基于博弈论的视角

从制度安排上,养老金制度经历了两次重大的历史转变:非正式的制度安排与正式的制度安排。本文从博弈理论的视角出发,通过构建养老金制度变迁的博弈模型,对正式的养老金制度安排的历史变迁进行了研究,解释了养老金制度在基金积累制与现收现付制之间转变的逻辑结构,进一步解释了养老金制度由单支柱向多支柱转变的内在动力。     

The enemies of trust

Researchers have established that trust is critical to organizational effectiveness. Being trustworthy yourself, however, does not guarantee that you are capable of building trust in an organization. That takes old-fashioned managerial virtues like consistency, clear communication, and a willingness to tackle awkward questions. It also requires a good defense: You must protect trust from its enemies. Any act of bad management erodes trust, so the list of potential enemies is endless. Among the most common enemies of trust, though, are inconsistent messages from top management, inconsistent standards, a willingness to tolerate incompetence or bad behavior, dishonest feedback, a failure to trust others to do good work, a tendency to ignore painful or politically charged situations, consistent corporate underperformance, and rumors. Fending off these enemies must be at the top of every chief executive's agenda. But even with constant vigilance, an organization and its leaders will sometimes lose people's trust. During a crisis, managers should enlist the help of an objective third party--chances are you won't be thinking clearly--and be available physically and emotionally. If you "go dark" in the face of a crisis, employees will worry about the company's survival, about their own capacity to cope, and about your abilities as a leader. And if trust has broken down so badly that your only choice is to start over, you can do so by figuring out exactly how the breach of trust happened, ascertaining the depth and breadth of the loss, owning up to the loss instead of downplaying it, and identifying as precisely as possible the specific changes you must make to rebuild trust.