Role of self-caught fish in total fish consumption rates for recreational fishermen: average consumption for some species exceeds allowable intake

Studies of fish consumption focus on recreational or subsistence fishing, on awareness and adherence to advisories, consumption patterns, and contaminants in fish. Yet the general public obtains their fish from commercial sources. In this paper I examine fish consumption patterns of recreational fishermen in New Jersey to determine: (1) consumption rates for self-caught fish and for other fish, (2) meals consumed per year, (3) average meal size, and average daily intake of mercury, and (4) variations in these parameters for commonly-consumed fish, and different methods of computing intake. Over 300 people were interviewed at fishing sites and fishing clubs along the New Jersey shore. Consumption patterns of anglers varied by species of fish. From 2 to 90% of the anglers ate the different fish species, and between 9 and 75% gave fish away to family or friends. Self-caught fish made up 7–92% of fish diets depending upon species. On average, self-caught fish were eaten for only 2–6?months of the year, whereas other fish (commercial or restaurant) were eaten up to 10?months a year. Anglers consumed from 5 to 36 meals of different fish a year, which resulted in intake of mercury ranging from 0.01 to 0.22?μg/kg/day. Average intake of Mako shark, swordfish, and tuna (sushi, canned tuna, self-caught tuna) exceeded the US Environmental Protection Agency’s oral, chronic reference dose for mercury of 0.1?μg/kg/day. However, computing intake using consumption for the highest month results in average mercury intake exceeding the reference dose for striped bass and bluefish as well. These data, and the variability in consumption patterns, have implications for risk assessors, risk managers, and health professionals.     

Fishing and consumption patterns of anglers adjacent to the Oak Ridge Reservation,Tennessee: higher income anglers ate more fish and are more at risk

The risks from consuming self‐caught fish are receiving international attention because of high levels of contaminants in some species. The ethnic, income, and educational differences in fishing and fish consumption patterns of 202 anglers fishing along the Clinch River arm of Watts Bar Reservoir adjacent to the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) or along Poplar Creek within ORR boundaries were analyzed to understand how to design a risk communication strategy. Because of elevated PCB concentrations in striped bass (Morone saxatilis), catfish (Ictalurus spp.), and sauger (Stizostedion canadense) due partly from contaminants released from the ORR in East Tennessee, the Clinch River arm of Watts Bar Reservoir is under a fish consumption advisory, while portions of Poplar Creek are under advisories because of mercury. Most studies find that a high proportion of anglers eat their catch, and people with lower incomes and less education generally eat more self‐caught fish than others fishing in the same region. Calculating fish consumption individually for each person indicated that a considerable number of people ate more fish from the study area than the amount used to calculate risks when developing fish consumption advisories, and people who ate fish more often usually ate larger portions. Unlike previous studies of fish consumption, this study indicated that a smaller proportion of anglers ate their fish, and those that ate the most were the high income anglers for this fishing population, rather than those with lower incomes. This suggests that risk communication strategies must include site‐specific information on the population at risk from fish consumption, and that targeting only low income, low education anglers will miss some people who are most at risk.     

Fish consumption: efficacy among fishermen of a brochure developed for pregnant women

The risk to human consumers from contaminants in fish is often dealt with by issuing consumption advisories, or in some cases, information brochures. Normally advisories and brochures are developed and tested with anglers. We examine the efficacy of a fish consumption brochure that was developed for pregnant women on people engaged in fishing in the Newark Bay Complex. The brochures were in English and Spanish, and subjects could read and be interviewed in either language. Of the 151 people interviewed, 32% were women, 58% spoke only English, 22% spoke mainly Spanish and the rest felt comfortable with both languages. There were no differences in the percent that were present as a function of preferred language. There were significant differences in the understanding of the brochure, depending upon preferred language (and the language of the brochure). In general, anglers preferring Spanish and who read the brochure in Spanish obtained fewer of the messages correctly than those who preferred English (seven of seven questions). There were also gender differences in efficacy of the brochures; a higher percentage of female anglers thought that the fish were not safe to eat from the port and thought that eating contaminated fish from the port could harm their baby. Although the correct message was obtained by 34–100% of the anglers, depending upon the question, and 60–75% of the anglers believed the pamphlet, only 16% (Spanish‐speaking) to 47% (Bilingual) planned on changing the species of fish they eat or the method of cooking. These data suggest that a pamphlet designed for pregnant women is useful for anglers, and they can obtain the ‘correct’ message from it. However, a relatively small percentage of subjects were persuaded to change their cooking or consumption behavior. In addition to television, subjects felt that the direct approach of distributing brochures face‐to‐face was an important method of communication of fish consumers.     

Fish consumption advisories: knowledge,compliance and why people fish in an urban estuary

The risk to human consumers from contaminants in fish is often dealt with by issuing consumption advisories. The hypothesis that consumption rates vary as a function of knowledge about advisories was tested for 254 people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex, in the New York/New Jersey harbour estuary. Interviews were conducted in the complex throughout the fishing season. There were no ethnic differences in the percentage of people who fished, crabbed, or did both, Most people either fished or crabbed, but not both, which has implications for risk assessment and communication. Only 45% of the people interviewed had heard about advisories; American Indians had heard little about fish advisories, and Hispanics had heard little about crab advisories. There were ethnic differences in education, consumption patterns, and knowledge about advisories. Knowledge about consumption advisories and the amount of fish and crabs consumed are negatively correlated. Despite laws forbidding catching (and consuming) crabs from Newark Bay Complex, people continue to do so. A higher percentage of people who consume the most fish and crabs are aware of consumption advisories, compared to those at the low end of consumption, but people who consume no fish or crabs from the Newark Bay Complex have the highest level of knowledge. There are few differences in the ratings of the reasons for fishing between those who are, and are not, aware of advisories. Since people mainly fish and crab to be outdoors and with friends and family, relax, and commune with nature, risk assessors and communicators should acknowledge the social and aesthetic nature of the activity, and address consumption by separating the activity (fishing, crabbing) from the risk (pregnant women and children should limit consumption).     

Testing heterogeneous-agent models: an alternative aggregation approach

Starting from the cross-sectional aggregation of marginal utilities, rather than intertemporal marginal rates of substitution, this paper develops a new heterogeneous-agent pricing kernel. A closed-form version of the new kernel depends on changes in the cross-sectional variance of log consumption, rather than the variance of changes in log consumption, as in Constantinides and Duffie [1996. Asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers. Journal of Political Economy 104, 219-237]. We implement the new kernel on household consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). At monthly and quarterly horizons, the new kernel reconciles the premium on U.S. equities with the consumption of asset holders, for reasonable values of relative risk aversion. The new kernel also fares better than kernels based on the aggregation of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution in explaining the cross-sectional variation of risk premia on stocks and bonds. Portfolios mimicking changes in the cross-sectional variance of log consumption for asset holders command significant negative Sharpe ratios.     

Borrowing constraints,the cost of precautionary saving and unemployment insurance

When it is costly for individuals to save or to borrow, unemployment insurance (UI) provides an alternative source of liquidity that smooths consumption over time and leads individuals to spend longer unemployed searching for a suitable job. We show in a tractable life-cycle model how the optimal unemployment replacement ratio and the fall in consumption on job loss depend on the cost of self-insurance and the cost of borrowing. This implies that the value of UI depends on age at job loss, consumption needs (such as the presence of children), discount rates, the return on saving, access to credit and the presence of other social insurance programmes. Optimal replacement rates vary substantially with plausible variation in these factors (from less than 20 percent to almost 60 percent).     

Predictability in Consumption Growth and Equity Returns: A Bayesian Investigation

We use a Bayesian method to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring long-run risks. Although the model is generally consistent with consumption and dividend growth moments in annual data, the conditional mean of consumption growth (a latent process) is not persistent enough to satisfy the restriction that the price-dividend ratio be an affine function of the latent process. The model also requires relatively high intertemporal elasticity of substitution to match the low volatility of the risk-free return. These two restrictions lead to the equity volatility puzzle. The model accounts for only 50% of the total variation in asset returns.     

Mortality outcome of surgically treated atrial septal defects

Comparative mortality in this abstract shows that surgical repair of an atrial septal defect (ASD) confers a survival advantage beyond that expected for the study population. Determinates of expected mortality and mean q' include the table selected, zero-time age and annual age, and sex distribution of the cohort. Each has an independent effect on mortality ratios and excess death rates. Confounding variables such as participant selection within the study cohort affect the outcome. Despite the multiple, methodologic variables in this abstract, individuals having surgical repair of an ASD appear to have low mortality.     

On the nonlinear relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions within an EKC framework: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression in the MENA region

This paper proposes a new approach for analyzing the dynamic relationships between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, energy use, and income for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Our study implements a class of regime-switching models, namely a nonlinear panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework. Two kinds of estimates for carbon emissions are provided. On the one hand, we measure the impact of energy consumption on CO₂ concerning the level of income per capita, as countries with a similar energy usage level would have different levels of energy intensity. On the other hand, we estimate the impact of output growth on emissions concerning energy usage variation, as a higher economic growth does not necessarily mean energy-intensive activities. Our empirical findings support these intuitions as they indicate that pollutant emissions respond nonlinearly to energy consumption and GDP growth. We find an inverted U-shaped pattern for the impact of energy on CO₂, in the sense that environmental degradation is declining beyond a given income threshold, which is estimated endogenously within the PSTR model. Also, our results underscore that GDP growth significantly impacts carbon emissions only for higher energy consumption growth.     

Current consumption and future income growth: Synthetic panel evidence

Using group means computed from 20 years of high quality survey data, I show a strong and robust relation between households’ consumption growth and subsequent realizations of their income growth, including realizations as distant as six years later. The relation appears in multiple types of variation in income growth: in variation across cohort-education groups, in variation over the life cycle, and in variation over the business cycle. While other explanations are explored, the results are likely due to forward-looking households altering their current consumption in response to information they receive about their income years into the future, information that turns out to be accurate.     

Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross-section of equity returns?

We propose a multivariate test of the capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns in which we compare cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with stochastic discount factors. We use a multivariate generalized heteroskedasticity in mean model to estimate 25 portfolios that are formed on size and the book-to-market ratio. Each portfolio is allowed to have its own no-arbitrage condition. We find that although the conditional covariances of returns with consumption exhibit negative variation across size, they do not vary across the book-to-market ratio. Thus, C-CAPM can capture the size effect, but not the value effect. The fit is, however, improved by allowing the coefficients on the consumption covariances to be different. The value effect appears to be associated with the book-to-market ratio as well as size. On its own the book-to-market ratio does not generate additional information about average returns to C-CAPM. A possible explanation for these findings is that both small and low book-to-market ratio firms are expected to have higher rates of growth.     

An equilibrium model of wealth distribution

I present an explicitly solved equilibrium model for the distribution of wealth and income in an incomplete-markets economy. I first propose a self-insurance model with an inter-temporally dependent preference [Uzawa, H. 1968. Time preference, the consumption function, and optimal asset holdings. In: Wolfe, J.N. (Ed.), Value, Capital, and Growth: Papers in Honour of Sir John Hicks. Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, pp. 485-504]. I then derive an analytical consumption rule which captures stochastic precautionary saving motive and generates stationary wealth accumulation. Finally, I provide a complete characterization for the equilibrium cross-sectional distribution of wealth and income in closed form by developing a recursive formulation for the moments of the distribution of wealth and income. Using this recursive formulation, I show that income persistence and the degree of wealth mean reversion are the main determinants of wealth-income correlation and relative dispersions of wealth to income, such as skewness and kurtosis ratios between wealth and income.     

Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross-Section of Corporate Capital Structure

We find that the majority of variation in leverage ratios is driven by an unobserved time-invariant effect that generates surprisingly stable capital structures: High (low) levered firms tend to remain as such for over two decades. This feature of leverage is largely unexplained by previously identified determinants, is robust to firm exit, and is present prior to the IPO, suggesting that variation in capital structures is primarily determined by factors that remain stable for long periods of time. We then show that these results have important implications for empirical analysis attempting to understand capital structure heterogeneity.     

Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize the Probability of Lifetime Ruin

Abstract

I study the problem of how individuals should invest their wealth in a risky financial market to minimize the probability that they outlive their wealth, also known as the probability of lifetime ruin. Specifically, I determine the optimal investment strategy of an individual who targets a given rate of consumption and seeks to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. Two forms of the consumption function are considered: (1) The individual consumes at a constant (real) dollar rate, and (2) the individual consumes a constant proportion of his or her wealth. The first is arguably more realistic, but the second has a close connection with optimal consumption in Merton’s model of optimal consumption and investment under power utility.

For constant force of mortality, I determine (a) the probability that individuals outlive their wealth if they follow the optimal investment strategy; (b) the corresponding optimal investment rule that tells individuals how much money to invest in the risky asset for a given wealth level; (c) comparative statics for the functions in (a) and (b); (d) the distribution of the time of lifetime ruin, given that ruin occurs; and (e) the distribution of bequest, given that ruin does not occur. I also include numerical examples to illustrate how the formulas developed in this paper might be applied.     

Glamour among value: P/E ratios and value investor attention

The trailing-four-quarter price–earnings (P/E) ratio is the most popular fundamental value proxy. This article is the first to examine the P/E ratio as the preeminent measure of value investor attention. Trailing-four-quarter P/E ratios predict significantly greater cross-sectional variation in stock returns than lagged P/E ratios or current price-to-book (P/B) ratios. P/E strategy returns are robust to variables that proxy for fundamental risk, variables mechanically related to P/E ratios, relative trading volume, and liquidity. The role of attention is evident in return patterns across long and short portfolios, day of the week, and time since formation. Stocks with low P/E ratios exhibit an increase in total trading volume driven by small trades, an improvement in liquidity, and lower idiosyncratic volatility. These patterns are consistent with the typical trading activity of individual investors, who have the strongest attention constraints.     

Risk,uncertainty, and asset prices

We identify the relative importance of changes in the conditional variance of fundamentals (which we call “uncertainty”) and changes in risk aversion in the determination of the term structure, equity prices, and risk premiums. Theoretically, we introduce persistent time-varying uncertainty about the fundamentals in an external habit model. The model matches the dynamics of dividend and consumption growth, including their volatility dynamics and many salient asset market phenomena. While the variation in price–dividend ratios and the equity risk premium is primarily driven by risk aversion, uncertainty plays a large role in the term structure and is the driver of countercyclical volatility of asset returns.     

Dealing with consumer default: Bankruptcy vs garnishment

What are the positive and normative implications of eliminating bankruptcy protection for indebted individuals? Without bankruptcy protection, creditors can collect on defaulted debt to the extent permitted by wage garnishment laws. The elimination lowers the default premium on unsecured debt and permits low-net-worth individuals suffering bad earnings shocks to smooth consumption by borrowing. There is a large increase in consumer debt financed essentially by super-wealthy individuals, a modest drop in capital per worker, and a higher frequency of consumer default. Average welfare rises by 1% of consumption in perpetuity, with about 90% of households favoring the change.     

Reward-to-Risk Ratios in the Treasury-Bill Market

We estimate the ex‐ante reward per unit of spot‐rate volatility (the reward‐to‐risk ratio) for U.S. Treasury bills on a monthly basis and find that these ratios vary predictably over time. Reward‐to‐risk ratios are positively autocorrelated; month‐to‐month changes in these ratios are negatively autocorrelated. Variation in these ratios contributes at least as much variation to ex‐ante excess returns as does variation in interest‐rate volatility. Because ex‐ante volatility and the rewards to volatility vary independently, variation in ex‐ante premiums is greater than the variation attributable to changing volatility alone.     

Consumption-based CAPM models: International evidence

We examine the performance of several types of the consumption-based CAPM (C-CAPM) models to explore if consumption factors matter for determining excess returns across 17 MSCI country indexes. While the classic world C-CAPM does exhibit some power in explaining cross-sectional variations of expected excess returns, the model seems to require an implausibly large coefficient of risk aversion. The more sophisticated models including the heterogeneous C-CAPM, the world surplus consumption and the habit-formation models provide more reasonable estimates and add substantial explanatory power for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. Our results suggest that country-specific consumption risk is not fully diversified thus implying that stock returns are related to idiosyncratic consumption risk.     

Labor income dynamics at business-cycle frequencies: Implications for portfolio choice

Young agents with low wealth-income ratios counter factually hold more stock than young, rich agents and old agents using the standard portfolio choice model with i.i.d. stock returns and labor income. This paper matches the countercyclical volatility and procyclical mean of U.S. labor income and finds that, consistent with U.S. data, young, poor agents now hold less stock than both young, rich agents and old agents, and no stock a large fraction of the time. Our results suggest that the predictability of labor income growth at a business-cycle frequency, particularly the countercyclical variation in volatility, plays an important role in a young agent's decision making about her portfolio's stock holding.