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即期利率和远期利率曲线是金融行业中最为基本和重要的工具。在对利率期限结构参数模型中被广泛运用的NS模型和Svensson模型进行比较分析的基础上,估计了我国国债市场的即期利率和远期利率曲线。实证研究表明,Svensson模型在以最小化收益率误差的估计方法下,能够较理想地构造中国国债市场的即期利率曲线和远期利率曲线。 相似文献
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在利用NS模型估计出市场即期利率的基础上,采用卡尔曼滤波方法对多因子Vasieck和CIR模型进行参数估计,最后运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对交易所国债价格进行模拟,并与实际价格进行比较,进而确定了符合我们国债市场的最优多因子仿射利率期限结构模型。研究结果表明:多因子CIR模型对数据的拟合效果及对国债价格模拟效果要明显优于多因子Vasicek模型;对于多因子CIR模型而言,因子个数增加并没有提高模型的价格模拟效果;两因子CIR模型具有最优的国债价格模拟效果。 相似文献
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国债收益率曲线即描述各种到期时间的国债收益率的图形,其研究思路为:首先设计一个能够在形式上符合我国利率期限结构特征的研究模型,然后根据商业银行存款利率,得出商业银行存款利率期限结构模型,之后研究回购利率的期限结构特征,并恰当地建模,最后利用商业银行存款利率模型和回购利率模型,结合国债定价,得到交易所国债的利率期限结构. 相似文献
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国债市场中隐含的实际利率和通胀预期的信息对于指导我国的货币政策和投资者决策具有重要的参考价值。本文通过采用简约型无套利宏观金融模型,第一次从中国银行间国债收益率曲线中分解出债券市场实际利率和通胀预期的整个期限结构。本文模型推断结果发现在2005年1月到2012年4月的样本时间内银行间国债市场的实际利率长期处于负值,反映出近年来货币政策偏于宽松和利率市场化机制未完善的问题。通过对本文分解的通胀预期和其它同类通胀预期指标比较分析,发现通过本文方法获得的通胀预期很好地反映了债券市场通胀预期的水平和变化趋势,也吻合通货膨胀的周期变化。同时因本文方法能够推断不同期限的通胀预期,相比已有的单一期限通胀预期指标,能够为政策制定者和市场投资者提供更为丰富的决策信息。 相似文献
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本文着眼于国债利率曲线的理论模型构造和具体实现,通过编程实现了债券利率模型中经典的Nelson-Siegel、Svensson模型以及现阶段国外大型金融机构广泛采用的VRP模型,针对万德数据库给出的债券价格,通过处理后输入模型得到即期利率曲线和远期利率模型,并通过事后筛选过程剔除异常样本进行调整,得到精确的国债利率曲线。从拟合程度和曲线的光滑性、稳定性、灵活性对三种模型进行了分析,认为VRP模型对国债利率期限结构拟合是最合适的,选用VRP模型。 相似文献
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本文着眼于国债利率曲线的理论模型构造和具体实现,通过编程实现了债券利率模型中经典的Nelson-Siegel、Svensson模型以及现阶段国外大型金融机构广泛采用的VRP模型,针对万德数据库给出的债券价格,通过处理后输入模型得到即期利率曲线和远期利率模型,并通过事后筛选过程剔除异常样本进行调整,得到精确的国债利率曲线.从拟合程度和曲线的光滑性、稳定性、灵活性对三种模型进行了分析,认为VRP模型对国债利率期限结构拟合是最合适的,选用VRP模型. 相似文献
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We test whether the Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model is arbitrage-free. Theoretically, the Nelson-Siegel model does not ensure the absence of arbitrage opportunities, as shown by Bjork and Christensen (1999) and Filipovic (1999). Still, central banks and wealth managers rely heavily on it. Using zero-coupon yield curve data from the US market, we find that the no-arbitrage parameters are not statistically different from those obtained from the Nelson-Siegel model. We therefore conclude that the Nelson-Siegel yield curve model is compatible with the no-arbitrage constraints on the US market. To corroborate this result, we also show that the Nelson-Siegel model performs as well as its no-arbitrage counterpart in an out-of-sample forecasting experiment. 相似文献
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We analyze the co-movement between the Credit Default Index (CDX) curve and the S&P 500 index's option volatility surface. We connect the reduced-form no-arbitrage model with the Nelson-Siegel (N-S) model on hazard rate implied from the CDX curve, and identify the levels, slopes, and curvatures from these two markets via the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). We find that the changes in the level, slope, and curvature in the CDX curve and those in the volatility surface are correlated due to the bridge of the S&P 500 index return. Finally, the co-movement between the CDX curve and S&P 500 index's volatility surface become stronger after the late 2000s global financial crisis. 相似文献
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Emmanouil Platanakis 《European Journal of Finance》2017,23(4):324-352
This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique – robust optimization – that is well suited to solving the asset–liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximize the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components – active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme's projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes–Stein and Black–Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144-month out-of-sample period, robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks. 相似文献
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Formal portfolio optimization methodologies describe the dynamics of financial instruments price with Gaussian Copula (GC). Without considering the skewness and kurtosis of assets return rate, optimization with GC underestimate the optimal CVaR of portfolio. In the present paper, we develop the approach for portfolio optimization by introducing Lévy processes. It focuses on describing the dynamics of assets’ log price with Variance Gamma copula (VGC) rather than GC. A case study for three Indexes of Chinese Stock Market is performed. On application purpose, we calculate the best hedge positions of Shanghai Index (SHI), Shenzhen Index (SZI) and Small Cap Index (SCI) with the performance function CVaR under VG model. It can be combined with Monte Carlo Simulation and nonlinear programming techniques. This framework is suitable for any investment companies. 相似文献
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寿险公司销售人力的资源配置是涉及多个阶段的决策行为。而动态规划是解决多阶段决策问题较为有效的数学方法,它可以将某个系统的运行过程分为若干个阶段,利用最优化原理建立基本方程,使目标函数达到最优,并求出最优解。利用动态规划相关理论建立模型,可以解决寿险公司销售人力分配中的最优化问题。 相似文献
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The Markowitz portfolio optimization model, popularly known as the Mean-Variance model, assumes that stockreturns follow normal distribution. But when stock returns do not follow normal distribution, this model wouldbe inadequate as it would prescribe sub-optimal portfolios. Stock market literature often deliberates that stock returns are non-normal. In such context the Markowitz model would not be sufficient to estimate the portfolio risks. The purpose of this paper is to expand the original Markowitz portfolio theory (mean-variance) via adding the higher order moments like skewness (third moment about the mean) and kurtosis (fourth moment about the mean) in the return characteristics. The research paper investigates the impact of including higher moments using multi-objective programming model for portfolio stock selection and optimization. The empirical results indicate that the inclusion of higher moments had a considerable impact in estimating the returns behavior of portfolios. The portfolios optimized using all the four moments, generated higher returns for the given level of risk in comparison to the returns of the Markowitz model during the study period 2000–2011. The results of this study would be immensely useful to fund managers, portfolio managers and investors as it would help them in understanding the Indian stock market behavior better and also in selecting alternative portfolio selection models. 相似文献
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综合国债市场的利率期限结构信息以及不同频率的宏观信息,本文构建混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型,在对不同期限债券进行一致性定价理论约束下,提取了中国通货膨胀预期的期限结构并对其进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明,本文模型提取的通胀预期期限丰富、结果稳健,具有较好的参考价值。通胀预期水平和变动响应主要受货币增长率、通胀率及全球食品价格变动等国内外相关宏观变量的影响,与国债收益率因子之间的关系不显著;国债收益率因子对中长期通胀预期的方差波动具有较强解释力,表明国债定价反映了未来通胀的不确定性。本文研究有助于充分利用我国宏观与金融市场信息条件,有效发现和锚定通胀预期,一方面,研究结果可为政策制定者和市场投资者提供科学的决策参考,另一方面,研究方法对丰富宏观金融领域的分析框架具有参考价值。 相似文献
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金融风险财政化、财政风险金融化与经济增长 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
金融风险财政化和财政风险金融化,虽然在短期内可以抑制金融风险和财政风险,但是,在长期内这些风险还是会以更加猛烈的方式释放出来,向上提升宏观经济风险,威胁一国经济安全,并最终抑制经济增长。这个推断,不仅在一个最优化的模型中得到证明,而且也为基于中国经济数据的协整检验所部分证实。 相似文献
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本文通过分析效率评价和信息披露对上市公司内部控制体系建设的重要性,同时考虑目前内部控制效率评价体系中存在的局限性和信息披露工作中的不合理性,分别就效率评价和信息披露两方面提出了改进的综合评价模型和优化方向,以期达到促进上市公司内控体系建设的根本目的。 相似文献
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综合国债市场的利率期限结构信息以及不同频率的宏观信息,本文构建混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型,在对不同期限债券进行一致性定价理论约束下,提取了中国通货膨胀预期的期限结构并对其进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明,本文模型提取的通胀预期期限丰富、结果稳健,具有较好的参考价值。通胀预期水平和变动响应主要受货币增长率、通胀率及全球食品价格变动等国内外相关宏观变量的影响,与国债收益率因子之间的关系不显著;国债收益率因子对中长期通胀预期的方差波动具有较强解释力,表明国债定价反映了未来通胀的不确定性。本文研究有助于充分利用我国宏观与金融市场信息条件,有效发现和锚定通胀预期,一方面,研究结果可为政策制定者和市场投资者提供科学的决策参考,另一方面,研究方法对丰富宏观金融领域的分析框架具有参考价值。 相似文献