A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks

In this paper we develop a multicriteria decision aid model, to investigate whether it is possible to replicate the credit ratings of Fitch on Asian banks using publicly available data. The model is developed with the Multi-group Hierarchical DIScrimination (MHDIS) approach, following a tenfold cross validation procedure. Five financial variables are selected from a list of nineteen ones through factor analysis. An additional set of five non-financial variables covering ownership, corporate governance, auditing, strength of bank’s franchise and its banking environment is also being used. The results show that equity/customer and short term funding, net interest margin and return on average equity are the most important financial variables. The number of shareholders, the number of subsidiaries and the banking environment of the country in which the banks operate are the most important non-financial ones. In terms of classification accuracies, the results show that the MHDIS model can replicate the credit ratings of Fitch with a satisfactory accuracy and is more efficient than discriminant analysis and ordered logistic regression that are used for comparison purposes.      

商业信用、融资约束与公司价值

以我国 A 股非金融类上市公司为样本,就商业信用变动对公司价值的影响进行分析,并以投资效率损失作为融资约束程度分类标准,对融资约束程度不同公司的商业信用变动的边际价值进行对比分析。研究发现：商业信用有利于提高公司价值;融资约束公司的商业信用变动的边际价值小于非融资约束公司;对于融资约束类公司,商业信用变动的边际价值会随着商业信用存量的增加而增加;而对于非融资约束类公司,商业信用变动的边际价值会随着商业信用存量的增加而减小。     

我国商业银行中小企业信贷风险评估体系的构建

开展中小企业贷款业务是商业银行优化信贷资产结构的重要措施,快速、准确评估其信贷风险是商业银行亟须解决的技术问题.经过长期实地调研,本文建立了适用于我国的中小企业信贷风险评估体系,其中,所建非财务指标体系,从行业环境、企业经营管理水平、经营者经验与素质、信用品质四方面进行评估;财务指标体系包括现金流流动负债比、净资产总资产比、息税前利润流动负债比、总资产周转速度、流动比率、现金流贷款比六个指标.以Logit统计回归模型为基础建立的评估模型,在分别评估非财务指标信息和财务指标信息后,加权相加两方面结果得到综合评估结果.实证检验证明,该评估体系的评估正确率达到95%以上.     

Japan’s banking crisis: An event-study perspective

We calculate abnormal stock returns for Japanese non-financial companies around major events associated with the banking crisis (1995–2000), and find that not all companies were equally sensitive to the malaise of the banking sector: the most affected were small, leveraged, low-tech companies with low credit ratings and low market to book ratios. This is consistent with “credit crunch” theories (companies with limited access to financial markets are sensitive to changes in bank lending) and with claims that innovation is rarely financed by bank debt. We do not find much evidence on the alleged misallocation of loans to support ailing bank clients.     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

信用评级变动能反映企业真实财务信息吗?——基于财务重述的视角

本文以2007-2018年拥有主体信用评级的A股上市公司为研究对象,利用企业财务错报在未来被重述这一场景,检验主体信用评级变动能否反映企业真实财务信息。研究发现,评级机构在发债企业财务错报年显著下调了主体信用评级,而在重述公告发布年没有上述现象,这表明主体信用评级下调反映了企业的真实财务信息。在控制内生性影响后,结论仍然成立。进一步研究发现,发债企业当期财务错报涉及盈余时,主体信用评级被下调的幅度更大,说明评级机构更加关注与盈余相关的财务信息。机制分析表明,评级机构维护自身声誉是主体信用评级变动能够反映企业真实财务信息的主要机制。此外,主体信用评级被下调还导致了资本市场投资者的负面反应。本文的研究结果为主体信用评级变动反映企业真实财务信息提供了直接的证据支持,揭示了主体信用评级的信息含量,也对理解中国情境下评级机构调整主体信用评级的行为动机提供参考。     

A two-stage credit scoring model based on random forest: Evidence from Chinese small firms

Small firms are major contributors to most economies, often supported by government policies. However, the credit scoring of small firms is complicated and costly, making it a challenging field of research. Using loan data from 3045 small firms in China, we design a two-stage expert system for default prediction that quantifies the variables and thresholds that have a key impact. Firstly, we use SMOTE to deal with the imbalanced data and secondly, we employ random forest to build predictive credit features. Dominance analysis shows that, when making default assessments on Chinese small firms, it is important to consider not only financial factors, but also non-financial and macroeconomic factors. In particular, the net cash profit, the firm's legal disputes and the per capita disposable income of urban residents are key factors in credit scoring. Robustness tests show that our proposed methodology performs better than other machine learning models, and this result is robust with observations from other countries.     

非金融企业杠杆率与银行信用风险关系研究

本文立足于重庆市非金融企业杠杆率的测算,采用描述性统计分析、变异系数法、向量自回归模型分析等分析方法,重点分析了重庆市非金融企业杠杆率的发展情况及非金融企业杠杆率与商业银行信用风险之间的关系。研究结果表明：重庆市非金融企业杠杆率总体稳定可控,但部分行业风险不容忽视;去杠杆短期内会增加商业银行信用风险,长期有助于化解金融风险;去杠杆对商业银行不良率攀升的影响较为显著。据此,根据研究结论提出了相应的对策建议。     

The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades

We analyze the effect of business and financial market cycles on credit ratings using a sample of firms from the Russell 3000 index that are rated by Standard and Poor's over the period 1986–2012. We also examine investor reaction to credit rating actions in different stages of business and financial market cycles. We document that credit rating agencies are influenced by business and financial market cycles; they assign lower credit ratings during downturns of business and financial market cycles and higher ratings during upturns. Our study is the first to find strong evidence of pro‐cyclicality in credit ratings using a long window. We also document stronger investor reaction to negative credit rating actions during downturns. Our results confirm theoretical predictions and inform regulators.     

Modelling credit in the transmission mechanism of the United Kingdom

Studies have focused heavily on money in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. In this article we explore the empirical importance of credit. The paper provides a framework in which to analyse the balance sheets of, and financial flows between, different sectors of the UK economy, and an econometric model of the interactions between non-financial firms, households and credit offered by banks and non-bank financial intermediaries. The paper also provides a dynamic structural model of bank and building society credit, money and decisions to consume and invest and then adds credit from non-bank financial intermediaries. Our bottom line is that credit is an important part of the transmission process of UK monetary policy.     

Waste Is Our Business,Inc.: The importance of non-financial information in the audit planning process

The objectives of this case are: (a) to alert students to the importance of non-financial information in the audit process; (b) to develop students’ ability to search for relevant financial and non-financial information in the audit planning process; and (c) to emphasize the importance of resisting the natural tendency to over-rely on financial information when conducting the financial statement audit. Students are asked to consider both financial and non-financial information when evaluating a client’s account balances. The client is in the waste business where there are a number of market, regulatory, and political factors that may affect the valuation of different accounts. Students are also directed to consider the importance of non-financial information in the integrated audit mandated by PCAOB Standard 5 and in fraud detection. The case can help students learn to explicitly consider non-financial information and understand the significance of integrating such information with financial data. The case is suitable for use in undergraduate or graduate auditing and assurance courses.     

Is sovereign risk related to the banking sector?

We examine whether the banking sector within a nation is related to sovereign risk. We hypothesize that more competitive and sophisticated financial systems are less prone to panics or bank runs, and consequently will be associated with superior sovereign credit ratings. Using Ordered Probit with Aggregate Time Effects methodology, our results show that banking sector characteristics such as concentration in the banking system, liquidity of bank assets, and size of financial system are significantly related to sovereign credit ratings. Since the use of these sovereign ratings is ubiquitous in international finance in varied applications such as determination of the cost of international borrowing by governments, international cost of capital for FDI, and others, the relationships identified in this paper have important public policy implications.     

Credit Ratings and Bank Affiliation to Financial Holding Companies: Effects of Government Ownership and Financial Crisis

This study compares credit ratings between FHC affiliated banks and independent banks using Taiwan bank and FHC data. The results show banks that join Insurance- or Security-FHCs obtain better ratings than those that join Bank-FHCs. Second, banks that join FHCs with higher activity diversification can obtain better credit ratings. Third, joining government-owned FHCs enhances bank credit ratings and mitigates bank default risk compared to joining non-government-owned FHCs. Fourth, prior to the financial crisis, banks joining FHCs can obtain better credit ratings and reduce the cost of debt. However, during the financial crisis, rating agencies stopped regarding banks joining privately owned bank-based FHCs as risk diversification and assigning better credit ratings on this basis.     

美国货币政策推升了新兴市场国家非金融企业杠杆率吗？

全球金融危机后,美国量化宽松货币政策的实施导致全球流动性异常充裕,对新兴市场国家非金融企业外部融资环境造成显著影响。本文运用28个新兴市场国家2003-2015年非金融类上市企业财务数据和美国影子利率数据对美国货币政策调整与新兴市场国家非金融企业杠杆率变动之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,美国影子利率与新兴市场国家非金融企业杠杆率变动之间存在显著负相关关系,即美国影子利率的降低会促使新兴市场国家非金融企业杠杆率出现更大幅度的上涨。进一步地,这一影响在融资约束程度较高的企业、外部融资依赖度较高的行业以及资本账户开放程度较高但汇率弹性僵化的国家表现得更为显著。上述发现意味着新兴市场国家在调控企业部门杠杆率的过程中,除要考虑国内因素外,也应高度重视美国货币政策的变化。     

Do Solicitations Matter in Bank Credit Ratings? Results from a Study of 72 Countries

Would the credit ratings of unsolicited banks be higher if they were solicited? Alternatively, would the credit ratings of solicited banks would be lower if they were unsolicited? To answer these questions, we use an endogenous regime-switching model and data from 460 commercial banks in 72 countries, excluding the United States, for the period 1998–2003. The answer to both questions is yes. Our results show that the observed differences between solicited and unsolicited ratings can be explained by both the solicitation status and financial profile of the banks. This finding is a new contribution to the literature.     

Trade Credit, Corporate Groups, and the Financing of Belgian Firms

We investigate the role of trade credit as a source of financing. Using a sample of 661 large non-financial Belgian firms for the 1989–1991 period, we find that the amount of trade credit a buyer takes is determined by his need for funds and the internally available funds. Trade credit is primarily used to finance short-term assets. As such, it seems to be an important alternative not only for short-term bank debt but also for long-term financial debt, including intragroup debt. We find no evidence that the amount of trade credit taken is influenced by affiliation with the supplier.     

Director Networks and Credit Ratings

We explore the effect of director social capital, directors with large and influential networks, on credit ratings. Using a sample of 11,172 firm‐year observations from 1999 to 2011, we find that larger board networks are associated with higher credit ratings than both firm financial data and probabilities of default predict. Near‐investment grade firms improve their forward‐looking ratings when their board is more connected. Last, we find that larger director networks are more beneficial during recessions, and times of increased financial uncertainty. Our results are robust to controls for endogeneity. Tests confirm that causality runs from connected boards to credit ratings.     

Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating

This study proposes an information asymmetry hypothesis to examine why bank credit ratings vary among countries even when bank financial ratios remain constant. Countries are divided among those with low and high information asymmetry. The former include high-income countries, those in North America and West Europe regions, and those with strong institutional environment quality, whereas the latter group possess the opposite characteristics. This study hypothesizes that the influences of financial ratios on ratings are enhanced in low information asymmetry countries but reduced in countries with high information asymmetry. The sample includes the long-term credit ratings issued by Standard and Poor's from 86 countries during 2002-2008. The estimated results show that the effects of financial ratios on ratings are significantly affected by information asymmetries. Countries wishing to improve the credit ratings of their banks thus should reduce information asymmetry.     

政策连续性、非金融企业影子银行化与社会责任承担

基于2006-2017年非金融类A股上市公司数据,本文考察了非金融企业影子银行化对社会责任承担的影响,并进一步研究了政策连续性对非金融企业影子银行化与社会责任承担之间关系的影响。研究发现,非金融企业影子银行化会抑制社会责任承担行为,且这种效应在市场套利动机强、公司治理水平较低、外部融资能力弱的企业中更为明显。政策连续性程度提高会减弱非金融企业影子银行化与社会责任承担之间的负向关系。因此,本文提出抑制经济“脱实向虚”,增强政策稳定性和连续性,促进实体经济平稳发展的政策建议。