适度宽松货币政策退出时机及渠道研究

本文主要分析了2008年金融危机时期,不同国家应用的货币政策,我国面对人民币不断升值的压力,而应用的宽松货币政策,进一步研究了在目前的经济形势下,货币政策退出机制,内容有退出时机和退出方式,指出了退出时机的条件,以及各种不同情况的退出方式。     

美联储退出非传统货币政策的工具选择与影响

文章在提炼非传统货币政策定义和回顾美联储实践的基础上，分析了菲传统货币政策退出进程中的工具选择，强调退出的总体规划、时机、力度选择的重要性，进而分析退出非传统政策对美国、其他发达经济体、新兴经济体以及中国可能带来的风险。     

风险投资退出时机和退出方式选择研究

风险投资的高收益是通过风险投资成功的退出而实现的,可行的退出机制是风险投资成功的关键.只有风险投资顺利成功的退出才能够使风险投资这一动态过程循环往复,不断获取风险资本增值.风险资本家实施风险投资项目退出时必须对退出时机和退出方式进行选择.文章主要对风险资本选择最佳退出时机以及退出方式时应该考虑的因素进行了研究,认为最佳退出时机以及退出方式的选择遵循投资收益最大化的准则.     

投资退出机制:效应、时机与途径

拥有一套完整的投资退出机制,对一个企业的投资体系而言,扮演着动力机制和安全保障机制的双重作用。本文从阐述投资退出带来的效益开始,从把握投资退出时机、选择投资退出途径等方面说明了如何建立投资退出机制。     

衍生市场发展态势及其对货币政策的影响

本文认为衍生市场的蓬勃发展已对一国货币政策的实施与操作产生了重大而深远的影响,文章在分析衍生市场基本特点和市场发展态势的基础上,从两方面论述了其对货币政策的影响：一是对货币政策中介指标,包括数量型指标和价格型指标的影响;二是对货币政策传导机制,包括传导媒介和传导时滞的影响     

改善我国货币政策利率传导机制运行的研究

本文先介绍了货币政策利率传导机制,分析了货币政策利率传导机制受阻的原因,最后给出了相应对策和建议。     

新形势下基层货币政策传导机制研究

本文分析我国货币政策传导机制在基层受阻的原因,提出构建与货币政策相适应的多渠道、多层次的传导机制,以增强央行货币政策调控效果的具体思路。     

居民消费储蓄行为对货币政策影响分析

在扩大内需的背景下,消费乏力、居民储蓄居高不下,对我国货币政策的传导产生了很大的影响,直接弱化了货币政策效力。本文从消费储蓄行为的角度分析了居民行为的选择如何使货币政策传导受阻,弱化货币政策效应,就中国的实际情况做出分析,并对提高货币政策有效性提出建议。     

金融危机救助的十大问题初探

金融危机是现代市场经济运行不可避免的产物.各国产生金融危机的原因各不相同,但其基本原因都是:经济金融体系内的各种矛盾无法自行解决或妥协.既然危机难以避免,那么如何进行危机管理和救助必然成为急需解决的问题.本文将深入分析金融危机救助过程中面临的十个重要问题:救助对象选择、救助时机选择、救助主体选择、救助方式选择、救助力度把握、救助成本收益权衡、救助效果评价、财政货币政策协调、国际协调机制、救助措施的退出机制,并进行了初步的经验总结.     

居民消费储蓄行为对货币政策影响分析

在扩大内需的背景下,消费乏力、居民储蓄居高不下,对我国货币政策的传导产生了很大的影响,直接弱化了货币政策效力.本文从消费储蓄行为的角度分析了居民行为的选择如何使货币政策传导受阻,弱化货币政策效应,就中国的实际情况做出分析,并对提高货币政策有效性提出建议.     

危机以来全球主要发达经济体央行资产负债表变化概览

中央银行资产负债表是对中央银行职能及其各项政策执行情况的集中概括。危机以来,全球主要发达经济体中央银行为应对危机、救助金融体系和刺激实体经济,采取了大量非常规货币政策措施,这对其资产负债表产生了重要影响。文章比较分析了危机以来全球主要央行的资产负债表变化情况和特点,并简述了各主要央行资产负债表的发展趋势。     

各国央行非常规货币政策综述

美国次贷危机爆发以来,全球金融系统和实体经济遭遇了严重冲击,为了有效缓解负面冲击,各国央行纷纷推出各种宽松性货币政策,但在实际应用中,传统货币政策不能有效克制危机,美联储等央行纷纷求助于量化宽松等新型非常规货币政策。目前来看,非常规货币政策产生了积极影响,美国等经济体实现了就业的改善、金融系统的稳定和经济增长的复苏。为全面了解货币政策,本文系统归纳了美联储等央行采取的各类非常规货币政策,探讨了非常规货币政策的实施途径及效能得失,并总结了美联储采取非常规货币政策的主要经验。     

非常规货币政策退出：文献综述与研究展望

非常规货币政策是国际金融危机期间主要经济体中央银行缓解流动性压力、提振市场信心以及压低融资成本重振经济的重要举措。随着美联储开始逐步退出量化宽松政策。非常规货币政策退出成为各方关注的焦点。非常规货币政策退出会带来怎样的冲击？如何把握退出节奏？本文从非常规货币政策退出的内涵、原因、策略以及影响等角度对主要文献进行了总结．提出了进一步研究的几个方向。     

The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis

This paper assesses the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies by estimating a panel vector autoregression (VAR) with monthly data from eight advanced economies over a sample spanning the period since the onset of the global financial crisis. It finds that an exogenous increase in central bank balance sheets at the zero lower bound leads to a temporary rise in economic activity and consumer prices. The estimated output effects turn out to be qualitatively similar to the ones found in the literature on the effects of conventional monetary policy, while the impact on the price level is weaker and less persistent. Individual country results suggest that there are no major differences in the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies across countries, despite the heterogeneity of the measures that were taken.     

Currency crises and monetary policy: A study on advanced and emerging economies

The studies regarding the appropriate monetary policy response in defending the domestic currency following a currency crisis do not gather around a robust answer. This study tries to emphasize the notion that there is no single policy applicable for all currency crises happened and happening in the global world. The approach of the study is presenting empirical evidence by focusing separately on the advanced and emerging economies and proving that the monetary policy response for the emerging economies should be different from the advanced economies, depending mainly on the vulnerabilities of these economies preceding and during the crisis periods. The study includes twenty four economies, in which fifteen of them are emerging and nine of them are advanced, for the crisis periods between 1986 and 2009. The main finding of the study is that the tight monetary policy is effective in the advanced economies, and detrimental in the emerging economies faced financial turbulence. The monetary policy has no significance in recent crisis episodes both for advanced and emerging economies. Advanced economies besides having more independent central banking, lower country riskiness and almost no default history; mainly have second generation model weaknesses which cause the increased interest rates to be successful in stabilizing the exchange rates. For the emerging economies the third generation model weaknesses play a major role together with the first generation model vulnerabilities. Thus the major policy implication follows that the policy makers should take into account the economic fragilities during the crisis in implementing the monetary policy.     

Are global shocks leading indicators of currency crisis in Viet Nam?

This paper aims to identify leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam based on an early warning system for the period 1996–February 2016. This paper found that global financial shocks (e.g., regional and global financial crisis, unexpected changes in monetary policy of largest economies such as the United States and the People’s Republic of China), and domestic credit growth rate are leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam in all three models. Deficits in trade balance, international reserves, and overvaluation of the dong are also good indicators. In addition, a model in which a currency crisis or turbulence in the foreign exchange market is defined based on the exchange market pressure and parallel market premium, with window length of 2 months, outperformed for predicting a currency crisis in Viet Nam. Empirical results suggested that probability of predicting a true currency crisis was 77.5%.     

Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?

We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies (EMEs) since 2002. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such flows to interest rate differentials since the crisis. Third, capital controls introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio net inflows. Finally, we find positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary policy on EME inflows, especially portfolio inflows. Even so, U.S. unconventional policy is one among several important factors influencing flows.     

次贷危机后美联储非常规货币政策及退出机制分析——基于美联储资产负债表的视角

次贷危机发生后,很多国家中央银行都采取了大量的非常规货币政策来确保金融系统的稳定和促进经济增长,尤其以美联储的非常规货币政策最具代表性。虽然非常规货币政策复杂多变,但是通常在央行资产负债表中清晰记录。借助于美联储资产负债表,能够全面梳理次贷危机后美联储的非常规货币政策,有助于深入理解非常规货币政策的实施和退出机制。     

International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks

This study examines the effects of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the major central banks, namely the Bank of England (BOE), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), on the international financial markets, taking global spillovers and monetary policy interaction into account. To this end, we applied the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model to 35 countries/economies and one region for the period from March 2009 to July 2019. In addition, we accommodated the smooth transition to the GVAR to consider possible structural changes in the effects of UMPs and monetary policy interaction. Our results indicate the importance of capturing structural changes, showing the remarkable difference between the beginning and end of the sample. For example, we found clear evidence of monetary policy coordination after the global financial crisis and less evidence of policy interaction in the recent period. Also, our results suggest that generally, the UMPs of the major central banks had stronger effects on both domestic and international bond markets in the earlier period. In contrast, the global equity markets responded more positively to the UMPs in the recent period, although there was no noticeable difference in the responses of domestic equity markets throughout the sample.     

The impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate

Understanding the effects and transmission of international spillovers is key to ensuring that the best possible decisions are reached by central banks – particularly those of small open economies. This paper analyses the impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate, and examines the response of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to these phenomena. In doing so, the paper compares the recent crisis period starting in mid-2008 with earlier decades. While the exchange rate absorbed a sizeable share of global inflationary pressure before the crisis, spillover effects transmitted through the exchange rate have been the principal cause of the significant decline in Swiss inflation since 2008. The SNB has therefore repeatedly adjusted its monetary policy – and resorted to some unconventional measures – in order to contain these spillover effects. These actions have so far kept the adverse effects of international spillovers on Swiss inflation at bay. However, as Switzerland's experience since the onset of the financial crisis shows, controlling inflation may occasionally become more difficult for small open economies.