美联储应对金融危机的货币政策效果评估

美国爆发次贷危机后,为应对危机,美联储实施了以＂信贷宽松＂为特征的货币政策,并创新了一系列政策工具。审视2007年至2009年美联储的货币政策实际效果,应该说是成功的。美国金融市场已经趋于稳定,美国经济正在走出衰退,美联储已开始酝酿宽松货币政策的退出战略。     

浅议量化宽松货币政策及其退出对中央银行资产负债表的影响

2008年金融危机以来,以美联储、日本央行、英格兰银行为代表的发达经济体中央银行纷纷启用量化宽松货币政策,通过购买国债等中长期证券来刺激经济复苏。在本次量化宽松货币政策的实施过程中,灵活主动的资产负债表管理成为各主要经济体央行重要的货币政策工具。本文对美联储、日本央行和英格兰银行所实施的量化宽松货币政策进行了梳理和回顾,简单总结了量化宽松货币政策对央行资产负债表产生的影响,并对退出量化宽松货币政策对央行资产负债表的影响进行了探索性分析,以期为人民银行进一步加强资产负债表的主动管理,前瞻性地做好应对措施提供有益参考。     

两轮美元货币政策正常化周期的比较研究

与上轮美国在2014-2019年经历的货币政策正常化周期相比,本轮周期美联储的紧缩操作表现得更加迅猛和急迫。文章从目前美联储资产负债表、美国财政刺激政策、美联储货币政策工具及美联储官员风格四个方面比较两轮美元货币政策周期的差异,为投资者在新一轮货币政策正常化周期中的决策提供参考。     

危机状态下美联储货币政策的变化

2007年9月以来,美联储在应对金融危机和经济衰退中采取了一系列政策措施,其中有些是定制的创新工具,有些是对传统工具的应用范围进行了扩展。这段时间中,美联储货币政策工具组合总体特征为:针对性、超常规和高度宽松。随着美国金融和经济在2009年进入复苏周期,市场越来越关注这些政策工具的实施效果以及美联储超常规、高度宽松政策的退出时机。     

次贷危机后美联储资产负债表的变动及原因分析

金融危机后,全球都在关注美国的经济复苏,希望其能带动全球经济的复苏。美联储也运用了一系列的救市措施,以此来刺激经济的复苏。而美联储的一系列货币政策的实施引起了美联储银行资产负债表的巨大变化。为了深刻地了解美联储货币政策的运用,对美联储资产负债表的结构以及规模的变化进行了分析。从分析中我们可以了解美联储政策实施的细节,能够为我国央行实施货币政策提供借鉴。     

美联储匠运筹“退出策略”

<正> 近日,美联储发布最近一次货币政策决策会议记录。在这份文件中,美联储的决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发表了对一些货币政策工具的实施意见,从一个侧面显示了美联储在退出策略上匠心独运,运筹审嗅。瞻前顾后厦谋划退出是从进入开始,剖析美联储的退出策略要从救市政策入手。2008年9月美国金融危机大有"黑云压城城欲摧"之势,     

金融危机爆发后美国的货币政策创新及其启示

2007年9月,美联储进入降息周期,截至2008年10月,美联储连续10个月降低基准利率和贴现率。2008年12月17日,基准利率降至0～0.25%区间,标志美国进入零利率时代。在金融危机期间,美联储采取了新型货币政策工具,这些工具对美联储资产负债表的规模和结构产生较大影响。本文分析金融危机爆发后美国采取的新型货币政策工具及其对资产负债表的影响,并得出相关启示。     

各国央行非常规货币政策综述

美国次贷危机爆发以来,全球金融系统和实体经济遭遇了严重冲击,为了有效缓解负面冲击,各国央行纷纷推出各种宽松性货币政策,但在实际应用中,传统货币政策不能有效克制危机,美联储等央行纷纷求助于量化宽松等新型非常规货币政策。目前来看,非常规货币政策产生了积极影响,美国等经济体实现了就业的改善、金融系统的稳定和经济增长的复苏。为全面了解货币政策,本文系统归纳了美联储等央行采取的各类非常规货币政策,探讨了非常规货币政策的实施途径及效能得失,并总结了美联储采取非常规货币政策的主要经验。     

金融危机中美联储的货币政策工具创新及启示

2007年8月美国次贷危机爆发以来,美联储针对金融动荡、信贷收缩和经济减速在常规货币政策的基础上采用了一系列诸如TAF、PDCF、TSLF、AMLF等货币政策工具创新,向金融市场注入流动性。这些货币政策工具的创新和应用对提供额外流动性,稳定市场信心,改善金融市场功能起到了一定的作用,也给其他国家中央银行实施货币政策、进行货币政策工具创新提供了借鉴。     

我眼中的银行卡业务创新

创新乃发展动力之源。创新活动已经通过银行卡业务渗透到人们生活的各个方面。 创新有时是从遵循规则管理的需求中创造出来的，有时却是从处理危机的过程中创造出来的。比如在美国次贷危机中，为应急救市，美联储推出了短期标售工具（TAF）、定期证券借贷工具（TSLF）、初级交易商信贷工具（PDCF）和定期回购协议等新货币政策工具，为美联储在未来持续监管并盘活市场提供了有力的帮助。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: American Monetary Policy, 1928–1941. By Lester V. Chandler . Essays on Interest Rates, Volume II. Edited by Jack M. Guttentag . The Postwar Quality of State and Local Debt. By George H. Hempel . Money and Monetary Policy in Communist China. By Katharine Huang Hsiao . The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920–67. By Philip A. Klein . Institutional Holdings of Common Stock 1900–2000 (Michigan Business Studies, Volume XVIII, Number 3). By Robert M. Soldofsky . The International Corporation: A Symposium. Edited by Charles P. Kindleberger . Studies in International Economics (Monash Conference Papers). Edited by I. A. Mc Dougall and R. H. Snape . External Financing for Latin American Development. By the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States . Money, Trade and International Relations. By Lord Robbins . American Financing of World War I. By Charles Gilbert . Budget Innovation in the States. By Allen Schick .     

UK policy coordination: the importance of institutional design

This paper considers the principles that underpin the design of the UK's macroeconomic framework, with particular emphasis on the importance of good institutional design in ensuring effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy when an independent Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has operational responsibility for setting interest rates. The theoretical literature on policy coordination finds that the cost of central bank independence is less monetary‐fiscal coordination. We argue that once account is taken of the institutional arrangements, this conclusion does not hold for the UK. In fact, the UK macroeconomic policy framework represents a significant improvement in policy coordination through mechanisms that allow for greater transparency and accountability in policy‐making. Among the measures discussed in the paper is the role of the Treasury Representative on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: MONETARY ECONOMICS: Monetary Theory and the Demand for Money. By DOUGLAS FISHER. Micro-Economic Effects of Monetary Policy: The Fall-Out of Severe Monetary Restraint. The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in the United States. FINANCIAL MARKETS: The Financial System by J. O. Light and William L. White. Money, Financial Flows, and Credit in the Soviet Union. By George Garvy. The Banking and Credit Systems of the USSR. By O. Kuschpeta. The Money Market: Myth, Reality and Practice, by Marcia Stigum. Multinational Business Finance. By David K. Eiteman & Arthur I. Stonehill. Klaus-Walter Reichel, Economic Effects of Exchange-Rate Changes     

非常规货币政策退出：文献综述与研究展望

非常规货币政策是国际金融危机期间主要经济体中央银行缓解流动性压力、提振市场信心以及压低融资成本重振经济的重要举措。随着美联储开始逐步退出量化宽松政策。非常规货币政策退出成为各方关注的焦点。非常规货币政策退出会带来怎样的冲击？如何把握退出节奏？本文从非常规货币政策退出的内涵、原因、策略以及影响等角度对主要文献进行了总结．提出了进一步研究的几个方向。     

Systemic and Idiosyncratic Risk in EU-15 Sovereign Yield Spreads after Seven Years of Monetary Union

The market capitalisation of international bond markets is much larger than that of international equity markets. However, compared to the large body of literature on international equity market linkages, there are far fewer empirical studies of bond systemic risk or international bond market co-movements. The extent of international bond market linkages merits investigation, as it may have important implications for the cost of financing fiscal deficit, monetary policymaking independence, modelling and forecasting long-term interest rates, and bond portfolio diversification. In this paper, we investigate the relative influence of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on yield spreads over 10-year German government securities during the seven years after the beginning of Monetary Integration. We estimate both panel regressions for the two groups of EU-15 countries (EMU and non-EMU) and specific-country regressions for the nine countries in the EMU group and the three countries in the non-EMU group. All estimations include both domestic (differences in market liquidity and credit risk) and international risk factors. The results present clear evidence that it was mostly idiosyncratic rather than systemic risk factors that drove the evolution of 10-year yield spread differentials over Germany in all EMU countries during the seven years after the beginning of Monetary Integration. Conversely, in the case of non-EMU countries, adjusted yield spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange factor) are influenced more by systemic risk factors. The fact that these countries do not share a common Monetary Policy might explain these results, which may show that government bonds from EMU countries have a better safe-haven status that those of non-EMU countries.     

On money and output: Is money redundant?

There is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions. Rudebusch and Svensson [1999, Policy Rules and Inflation Targeting. In Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 203-246; 2002, Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data. European Economic Review 46, 417-442] provide some empirical support for this view. We reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant. More specifically, there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap, even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for. We also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap.     

Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”

This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968a) article “The Role of Monetary Policy,” via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are as follows: (i) “The Role of Monetary Policy” was Friedman's first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (ii) The Friedman–Phelps Phillips curve was already present in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (iii) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (iv) Friedman's (1968a) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History’s version. (v) Friedman (1968a) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (vi) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (vii) Friedman's (1968a) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman's (1968a) analysis.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: Aggregate Theory and Policy; The New Inflation: Causes, Effects, Cures. By G. L. Bach . Aggregate Theory and Policy; The Theory of Macroeconomic Policy. By Nancy S. Barrett . Aggregate Theory and Policy; Some Cambridge Controversies in The Theory of Capital. By G. C. Harcourt . Aggregate Theory and Policy; Business Finance and Investments; Methodology in Finance—Investments. Edited by James L. Bicksler Aggregate Theory and Policy; The Measurement of Portfolio Risk Exposure. By Frank B. Campanella . Aggregate Theory and Policy; Modern Developments in Investment Management: A Book of Readings. Edited by James Lorie and Richard Brealey Aggregate Theory and Policy; Theory of Financial Markets. By Jan Mossin . Financial Institutions and Markets; Economics and Insurance: An Introduction to the Economic Aspects of Insurance By R. L. Carter . Financial Institutions and Markets; Inflation and Economic Development in Brazil 1946–1963. By Raouf Kahil . Financial Institutions and Markets; Socialist Banking and Monetary Control: The Experience of Poland. By T. M. Podolski . International Finance; Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire. By Michael Hudson . Public Finance; The Payroll Tax for Social Security. By John A. Brittain . Public Finance; Public Expenditure Analysis: Selected Readings. Edited by Balbir S. Sahni .     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
Asset Accumulation and Economic Activity: Reflections on Contemporary Macroeconomic Theory James Tobin.
Monetary Policy and Practice: A View from the Federal Reserve Board Henry C. Wallich.
Mergers and Acquisitions, Current Problems in Perspective Michael Keenan and Lawrence J. White, editors.     

货币政策成本和中央银行利润

本文以中央银行资产负债表数据为基础,测算中央银行实施宏观货币政策的财务成本,并计算其中的外汇对冲和准财政职能成本,纳入收入后形成中央银行2003年以来的利润表。结果表明,中央银行实施宏观货币政策调控付出了巨额成本,但外汇储备收入的增加使其营业利润为正,政策实施效果良好。然而,考虑外汇储备资产自身的损益后,中央银行出现亏损,这与长期以来被动的外汇干预政策有着直接联系,根本原因来自于中国货币供给的内生性。