制造业企业房地产投资与企业杠杆率

摘 要：21世纪以来,中国制造业企业进行房地产投资是其“多元化”投资战略的主 要形式之一。本文利用2010-2020年中国 A 股上市制造业企业数据,研究了制造业企业 房地产投资对企业杠杆率的影响,发现制造业企业房地产投资能够提升企业杠杆率。机 制分析表明,制造业企业房地产投资通过发挥挤压效应和抵押效应进而提高企业杠杆率。 制造业企业房地产投资对企业杠杆率的提升作用在非国有企业和小企业中更显著。在区 分长期杠杆率和短期杠杆率后,制造业企业房地产投资对企业杠杆率的提升作用表现在 长期杠杆率方面,同时该提升作用显著提高了企业的财务风险。本文提出企业应当加大 研发创新,促进自身高质量发展;政府监管部门完善系列政策避免制造业企业盲目进行房地产投资而导致“企业空心化”。     

金融资产投资、杠杆率与企业风险承担——基于非金融企业的视角

本文以2007~2018年我国A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,运用动态面板系统广义矩估计法,研究杠杆率在金融资产投资与企业风险承担之间的中介效应影响,分析金融资产投资、杠杆率、企业风险承担三者之间的传导链条。研究发现:杠杆率在金融资产投资与企业风险承担水平之间发挥了部分中介效应;金融资产投资增加会直接导致企业风险承担水平上升,同时也会通过提高杠杆率间接地提升企业风险承担水平。本研究丰富了实体企业金融投资后果的相关文献,为实体企业的投资决策以及风险管理提供了参考,也为监管部门去杠杆防风险提供了经验证据。     

供给侧改革背景下非金融企业杠杆率与金融风险关系研究

山东省非金融企业杠杆率已超国际认定警戒线,并且由于统计口径不完备,山东省实际杠杆率水平高于当前计算结果,已无加杠杆空间。从当前可计算的杠杆率分结构看,山东省非金融企业杠杆率高企主要集中在第二产业、基建行业及国有企业。通过对山东省内2009年以来17地市的杠杆率与不良贷款率进行实证研究发现,不良贷款率与杠杆率变动之间存在稳定的反向关系,杠杆的加速变动会加大金融风险的暴露。建议应在稳步去杠杆的基础上推进金融供给侧改革,使非金融企业与区域金融体系实现平稳健康发展。     

杠杆率、企业规模与企业创新

选取2010-2015年沪深A股上市公司的面板数据,借助门槛模型研究企业杠杆率与企业创新的关系。结果显示：杠杆率对企业创新有显著影响,存在既能促进创新同时降低风险的企业最优杠杆率区间,即当杠杆率处于9.3%~37.1%的范围时,杠杆率的提升能够最大地促进创新投入与创新产出,同时降低创新风险;但当前我国大部分企业并未达到增加创新产出与降低创新风险的最优均衡。同时,不同规模企业杠杆率与创新的关系具有差异性,大型企业促进创新且可规避风险的最优杠杆率的区间为杠杆率低于67.0%,中型企业为杠杆率低于22.5%,小型企业则是7.8%~17.0%的区间范围。应正确理解中央“去杠杆”政策,推进结构性去杠杆,力求在“降杠杆”和“促创新”之间达成最优平衡。     

科技金融发展对企业绿色创新的影响研究

基于2007-2019年我国A股上市公司数据,运用多元线性回归模型,考察科技金融发展对企业绿色创新水平的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明：科技金融发展通过减少企业融资约束与缩短财务违约距离,有效激发战略新兴产业等企业开展绿色创新研发活动的积极性,同时科技金融发展有效降低了企业发展战略选择时的风险厌恶程度,进而提升企业绿色创新的投资效率。此外,外部监管力量与地区金融发展水平的提高能够显著提升科技金融赋能企业绿色创新的工作效能。     

数字金融对企业结构性去杠杆的影响研究

摘要：结构性去杠杆要求在精准识别企业杠杆率和经营状况的基础上分类施策,有针对性地去杠杆、稳杠杆和加杠杆,而数字金融可以缓解信息不对称,有助于政府和金融机构准确识别企业杠杆率和经营状况,为企业结构性去杠杆提供可行思路。本文根据修正MM理论和权衡理论,利用中国数字普惠金融发展指数和2011－2018年上市企业数据,研究数字金融对企业结构性去杠杆的影响。研究发现,数字金融对企业具有加杠杆效应;进一步研究表明,数字金融对优质企业具有加杠杆效应,对普通企业具有稳杠杆效应,而对劣质企业具有去杠杆作用。政府应充分利用数字金融,强化数字金融监管,稳步推动企业结构性去杠杆;企业应提高发展质量,保持合理的杠杆率水平。     

金融发展对中国企业ODI的影响路径分析

论文从生产率路径、融资约束路径和风险降低路径来论述金融发展对企业对外直接投资的影响。生产率路径主要表现为金融发展能够促进企业增加研发投入,能够帮助企业选择潜在收益最大项目进行投资,能够分散科技投资的风险从而提升企业生产率;融资约束路径主要表现为金融发展能够通过金融规模扩张、金融结构调整、金融效率提升来降低企业的融资约束;风险降低路径表现为金融发展能够通过市场深化与风险识别来降低企业对外直接投资的风险。     

加速折旧企业所得税政策与实体企业金融化——基于2014年固定资产加速折旧政策的准自然实验

本文选择2011-2017年我国沪深上市实体企业的样本数据,以2014年固定资产加速折旧所得税政策的出台为准自然实验,采用双重差分法实证检验了固定资产加速折旧政策对实体企业金融化行为的影响。研究发现,固定资产加速折旧政策出台带来的所得税抵税收益在提升实体企业固定资产和无形资产等实业投资的同时,会提升实体企业金融化水平。进一步研究发现,固定资产加速折旧政策的出台仅对现金流较贫乏、非国有企业、成长性较高以及规模较小的实体企业的金融化水平具有显著促进作用。研究结论不仅能够丰富企业金融化的理论研究,还有助于税务监管部门进一步调整优化固定资产加速折旧政策及相关配套税收政策,以便更好地防范、化解脱实向虚风险,促进实体企业高质量发展。     

高质量发展背景下去杠杆的路径及效果研究——以方大特钢为例

文章以方大特钢科技股份有限公司（以下简称方大特钢）为例,分析其去杠杆的路径选择,并从杠杆率水平、财务风险、财务绩效三个方面评判去杠杆成效,总结案例,为钢铁行业其他企业去杠杆提出建议。     

经济周期、信贷周期叠加贸易摩擦下的去杠杆路径

当前我国宏观杠杆率总体趋稳,去杠杆取得了一定成效,去杠杆的重点仍是地方政府和国企部门以及房地产、产能过剩领域。宏观杠杆率与促进经济增长之间存在着某种稳态关系,稳杠杆应着力于合理把控债务增速与GDP增速的关系。企业杠杆率的下降有赖于产权比率的降低、 ROE的提升和总负债增速的下降,通过提升创利水平来降杠杆是可取之道。信贷周期和金融周期均受经济周期波动影响,经济下行期叠加贸易摩擦背景下,宽泛的去杠杆会加大经济下行压力。去杠杆应注重杠杆资源优化配置,纠正杠杆错配,鼓励和支持好的合理的杠杆,降低落后的、过剩的、低效的杠杆,从而提高杠杆资源利用效率;去杠杆还应注重与监管周期协调,疏通货币政策传导机制,深化利率市场化改革,并发挥信贷政策导向作用,增强金融服务实体经济的意愿和效能。     

Capital Structure, Information Acquisition and Investment Decisions in an Industry Framework

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm's capital structure and its information acquisition prior to capital budgeting decisions. It is found that low-growth industries can sustain a large number of levered firms. In these industries, leverage is negatively related to a firm's incentive to acquire information during the capital budgeting process. In contrast, high-growth industries only sustain a small number of levered firms. In these industries, levered firms acquire more information than all-equity financed firms. The model yields empirical predictions regarding the effects of leverage on the expected amount and the volatility of corporate investment. While leverage does not affect firm value, highly levered firms generate a more volatile cash flow than firms with low debt levels.     

Cash holdings and real asset liquidity

This paper examines the relationship between the ability of a firm to sell its real assets and its cash holdings behavior. A substitution effect exists between the size of cash balances and the liquidity of a firm’s real assets when access to external capital markets is limited. Among financially constrained firms, higher asset liquidity is related to lower cash holdings. Additionally for financially constrained firms, the market value of cash is lower for firms with higher asset liquidity.     

Information Asymmetry and Corporate Liquidity Management: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

We examine the impact of information asymmetry on a firm??s choice between cash and credit lines for corporate liquidity management using a panel data set from real estate investment trusts (REITs). Information asymmetry, as measured by analyst forecast error and dispersion, is negatively related to the use of lines of credit. Specifically, firms with more severe information asymmetry are less likely to have access to bank credit lines. Concurrently, more transparent firms are more likely to utilize bank credit lines as opposed to cash for liquidity management. The results are robust to alternative information asymmetry proxies and specifications. These findings suggest that information asymmetry plays an important role in corporate liquidity management.     

Financial Crisis and Corporate Liquidity: Implications for Emerging Markets

The present study investigates corporate liquidity (cash holdings) in emerging markets from 1990 to 2006. During the Asian financial crisis, firms in the majority of emerging markets examined in the present study held more cash. In addition, such an increase in cash holdings was the result of the strengthened propensity of firms to retain cash from earnings. The firms also hoarded cash to take advantage of greater growth opportunities and to meet higher investment demands after the crisis. Furthermore, the results indicated that cash added to firm value. The end of the crisis guaranteed the value-enhancing effect of cash for the majority of the economies in the current study.     

经营风险与企业杠杆率

本文从理论和实证两方面考察企业经营风险将如何影响其杠杆率。其中,企业面临的经营风险被定义为在企业所属“年份×城市×二位行业”层面内除自身外其他所有企业资产收益率(ROA)的分布标准差。整体而言,当企业经营风险上升时,其投资和负债决策将更加保守,表现为资产负债表收缩和杠杆率下降。分债务期限来看,杠杆率的变化又可分为“规模效应”和“结构效应”,前者指向投资、负债决策的整体收缩,后者指向债务结构中短期负债占比的下降。经营风险上升时,杠杆率下降主要体现为短期债务的缩减;分所有制来看,非国有企业对经营风险的敏感度较强,国有企业对经营风险的敏感度较小,这与两类企业的融资难易程度相符。     

我们为什么需要绿色金融?——从全球经验事实到基于经济增长框架的理论解释

当前,绿色金融备受关注,然而该领域的基础理论尚需进一步强化。根据经济学的一般原理,由于污染的外部性问题,环保的主要力量应当是公共部门而非金融系统。然而为何越来越多国家选择发展绿色金融?其背后的经济学原理是什么?深入探讨这些问题是有效制定政策、构建绿色金融理论体系的基础。本文基于跨国面板数据的分析表明,绿色金融对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,表现出与公共部门环保投入的显著差异。在此基础上,本文构建基于经济增长框架的绿色金融理论模型,对经验事实给出理论解释。模型证明:绿色金融的成本分摊与风险分担功能使其具有独特的长期增长效应,是经济发展必然选择;绿色金融政策与绿色财政政策的协调配合是实现高质量发展的有效手段。本文从理论层面回答了“为什么需要绿色金融”这一问题,为绿色金融的经济学理论发展和政策分析提供了可借鉴的框架。     

Corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Switzerland

This paper investigates the determinants of cash holdings for a comprehensive sample of Swiss non-financial firms between 1995 and 2004. The median Swiss firm holds almost twice as much cash and cash equivalents as the median US or UK firm. Our results indicate that asset tangibility and firm size are both negatively related to corporate cash holdings, and that there is a non-linear relationship between the leverage ratio and liquidity. Dividend payments and operating cash flows are positively related to cash reserves, but we cannot detect a significant relationship between growth opportunities and cash holdings. Most of these empirical findings, but not all of them, can be explained by the transaction costs motive and/or the precautionary motive. Analyzing the corporate governance structures of Swiss firms, we document a non-linear relationship between managerial ownership and cash holdings, indicating an incentive alignment effect and an opposing effect related to increasing risk aversion. Finally, our results suggest that firms in which the CEO simultaneously serves as the COB hold significantly more cash.

Predicting corporate policies using downside risk: A machine learning approach

This paper develops a text-based downside risk measure using corporate annual reports and assesses its ability to forecast future corporate policies. The forward-looking measure dynamically captures adverse firm conditions evolving from economic fundamentals. When the measure is below its sample average, leverage, investment, R&D, employment, and dividends consistently fall. When the measure rises, firms increase cash holdings. The proposed measure also delivers robust and persistent forecasts based on in-sample and out-of-sample LASSO regressions.     

Asset liquidity,corporate investment,and endogenous financing costs

We analyze how the liquidity of real and financial assets affects corporate investment. The trade-off between liquidation costs and underinvestment costs implies that low-liquidity firms exhibit negative investment sensitivities to liquid funds, whereas high-liquidity firms have positive sensitivities. If real assets are not divisible in liquidation, firms with high financial liquidity optimally avoid external financing and instead cut new investment. If real assets are divisible, firms use external financing, which implies a lower sensitivity. In addition, asset redeployability decreases the investment sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate that asset liquidity is an important determinant of corporate investment.     

TOWARD A MORE COMPLETE MODEL OF OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Most corporate finance practitioners understand the trade-off involved in making effective use of debt capacity while safeguarding the firm's ability to execute its business strategy without disruption. But quantifying that trade-off to arrive at an optimal level of debt can be a complicated and challenging task. This paper develops a simulation model of capital structure that starts by generating multiple estimates of market rates (LIBOR, currency rates) and corresponding company operating cash flows. To arrive at an optimal capital structure, the model then incorporates the shareholder value effects of alternative financing decisions by directly measuring the costs of financial distress, including the costs of missed investment opportunities and higher working capital requirements.
The model generates both a target credit rating and a lower fallback rating that permits a higher level of debt to maintain investments and dividends when operating cash flows are weak. As the model shows, companies with volatile cash flows and significant investment opportunities can add substantial shareholder value by establishing a fallback credit rating that is one or two notches below the target rating. The model also optimizes the mix of fixed versus floating debt, the maturity structure, and the currency composition. Another distinctive feature of the model is its ability to estimate the expected cost of alternative liability structures that can provide the liquidity insurance necessary to sustain the firm through periods of severe stress. This cost turns out to be quite small relative to the total market capitalization of the average firm.