Financial development,government ownership of banks and firm innovation

Using a newly-available World Bank survey of over 28,000 firms from 46 countries, we examine how financial development affects firm innovation around the world. We find that while stock market development significantly enhances firm innovation, banking sector development has mixed effects. We show that the latter result can be explained by different levels of government ownership of banks. Specifically, in countries with lower government ownership of banks, banking sector development significantly enhances firm innovation; while in countries with higher government ownership of banks, banking sector development has no significant or sometimes even significantly negative effects on firm innovation. Such negative effects are significantly stronger for smaller firms. The results are robust to various controls such as firms’ human capital and ownership structure, to estimations using instrumental variable techniques and alternative measures of firm innovation.     

银行价格竞争、融资约束与企业研发投资——基于“中介效应”模型的实证研究

近年来我国利率市场化改革积极推进,实体经济发展积极向创新驱动转型,一个亟须研究厘清的关键问题是,银行业竞争如何驱动企业创新活动？本文关注银行价格竞争对企业创新的影响,以2013—2018年沪深两市的上市企业为样本,采用“中介效应”因果分析模型,实证检验了银行价格竞争对企业研发投资的影响,并识别出以融资约束为中介渠道的作用机制。研究发现,银行价格竞争不仅会提高银行的风险容忍度,直接增加R&D投资的信贷供给意愿,而且还会通过降低贷款价格和增加贷款可得性来缓解企业整体的融资约束,间接促进企业创新活动。这一机制在解除贷款利率管制之后以及在民营企业层面体现得更加明显。本文的研究结果对于深化金融市场化改革、改善金融服务实体经济效果以及实施经济创新驱动发展战略,具有明确的政策启示。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

中国银行业结构性全要素生产率增长研究

在深化银行业供给侧结构性改革背景下,如何科学评价银行业的结构性全要素生产率(TFP)增长具有重要意义。区别于早期针对个体样本的技术性TFP增长研究,本文通过构建并分解加总的Luenberger生产率指标对我国银行业以及不同类型银行的结构性TFP增长及来源进行有效评价。结果显示,研究期间,我国银行业的结构性TFP增长表现良好,其中,整体技术进步是主要驱动力;进一步分解发现,制度创新改善和加总的个体技术进步推动了银行业结构性TFP增长。在整体效率变化方面,加总的个体技术效率变化和结构效率变化都有待提高,其中,范围效率变化是抑制结构效率改善的主要因素。考虑不同类型银行,制度创新变化对所有类型银行的结构性TFP增长都影响显著,加总的个体技术变化对股份制和地区性银行的结构性TFP增长贡献更突出;加总的个体技术效率变化、结构效率变化、范围效率变化和规模效率变化对不同类型银行的结构性TFP增长作用有限。     

银行竞争提高了企业投资水平和资源配置效率吗？——基于分支机构空间分布的研究

银行贷款是我国企业融资的重要方式,在企业生产经营中发挥着举足轻重的作用。2006年和2009年,我国先后两次放松了商业银行分支机构市场准入规制,银行分支机构空间分布发生了较大变化,银行竞争水平和服务实体经济能力明显提升。本文利用2001-2012年国家统计局工业企业数据,以企业周边银行分支机构的数量衡量银行竞争水平,研究银行竞争对企业投资的影响。研究发现,银行分支机构数量的增加显著提高了企业投资水平和投资效率。进一步研究表明,银行分支机构数量增加对企业投资效率的提升作用主要表现在投资不足的企业和非国有企业中,企业融资约束降低和代理冲突减弱是银行竞争提高企业投资效率的主要原因。本研究拓展了银行竞争以及企业投资和资源配置效率的相关文献,对供给侧结构性改革和银行业高质量发展具有启示意义。     

Credit supply and corporate innovation

We present evidence that banking development plays a key role in technological progress. We focus on manufacturing firms' innovative performance, measured by patent-based metrics, and employ exogenous variations in banking development arising from the staggered deregulation of banking activities across US states during the 1980s and 1990s. We find that interstate banking deregulation had significant beneficial effects on the quantity and quality of innovation activities, especially for firms highly dependent on external capital and located closer to entering banks. Furthermore, we find that these results are strongly driven by a greater ability of deregulated banks to geographically diversify credit risk.     

银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响——来自工业企业的经验证据

本文在充分考虑中国信贷市场本地竞争特征的基础上,利用手工收集的商业银行分支机构独特数据构造了城市层面的银行业市场结构指标,并将其与2002-2007年中国工业企业数据库进行合并构造基础数据库,考察了银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响。研究发现:首先,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构显著提高了企业生产率,这支持了银行业市场结构的“市场力量假说”;其次,从影响机制来看,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构更有利于缓解企业面临的融资约束;最后,银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响在那些面临更多融资约束的企业中更为显著,小企业、非国有企业、新企业和高技术行业的企业从银行业竞争中获益更大。     

银行业竞争、融资约束与企业创新——中国工业企业的经验证据

本文将1998-2007年中国工业企业数据、专利申请数据与银监会公布的金融许可证数据相匹配,考察银行业竞争影响企业创新的内在机制。结果发现,竞争的加剧通过缓解企业面临的融资约束,从而提升其创新能力。在弱化内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验后,上述结果仍然稳健。进一步研究发现,外部融资依赖度较高的企业,中小、民营企业,以及位于市场化水平高和法治环境好的地区的企业,银行业竞争通过缓解融资约束促进其创新的效应更加明显。此外,本文还发现股份制银行和城商行的竞争能更好地推动企业创新。因此,建立健全多层次、多元化的金融体系,能有效缓解企业创新的融资困境,激发创新活力。     

赶超战略与大银行垄断——基于新结构经济学的视角

改革开放初期,中国有很多资本高度密集的大型国有企业,需要大量资金维持生产运营,若无法获得足够的银行贷款以致资金链断裂而破产倒闭,极易引发动荡。本文研究发现,在当时中国资本稀缺的要素禀赋结构下,为确保“重要而不能倒”的国有企业获得足够的银行贷款而不破产倒闭,不适合采用放开银行准入以促使银行竞争的方式,反而应限制银行准入,控制银行数量。原因在于,放开银行准入增加的仅是中小银行,其资金动员能力有限,与国有企业的规模特性不相匹配,更重要的是,大量中小银行进入会分流大银行的存款,降低大银行的资金动员及服务国有企业的能力,导致国有企业的贷款成本和破产风险因此而上升。本文指出,一个国家的银行业结构内生于该国的经济发展战略。限制银行准入的政策安排通过在金融方面支持国有企业,在改革初期起到了维护国防安全、保障国计民生和维持社会经济稳定的作用,为平稳推动改革创造了条件。     

The bright side of market power in Asian banking: Implications of bank capitalization and financial freedom

Using a sample of listed banks in the Asia-Pacific region from 2000 to 2016, this paper documents that higher market power reduces risk taking but increases loan growth and performance in banking. This highlights the "bright side" of bank market power in general. However, the positive effect of market power on bank stability is more pronounced for well-capitalized banks, although their performance tends to decline, and loan growth is unaffected by market power. Hence, bank capitalization plays an important role in strengthening financial stability due to an increase in bank market power. Moreover, banks with higher market power located in countries with a lower degree of financial freedom exhibit lower riskiness, higher loan growth, and better performance. Greater control by authorities in the financial sector is essential, not only to enhance financial stability, but also to boost financial intermediation and bank performance following an increase in bank market power.     

Inside the black box: Bank credit allocation in China’s private sector

This study examines how the Chinese state-owned banks allocate loans to private firms. We find that the banks extend loans to financially healthier and better-governed firms, which implies that the banks use commercial judgments in this segment of the market. We also find that having the state as a minority owner helps firms obtain bank loans and this suggests that political connections play a role in gaining access to bank finance. In addition, we find that commercial judgments are important determinants of the lending decisions for manufacturing firms, large firms, and firms located in regions with a more developed banking sector; political connections are important for firms in service industries, large firms, and firms located in areas with a less developed banking sector.     

Financial networks and systemic risk vulnerabilities: A tale of Indian banks

This study identifies the nature and direction of unprecedented upheavals in the Indian banking sector which is linked to credit market asymmetry. A tail-driven network approach with a mixed sample of banks and firms exhibits the characteristics of the twin-balance-sheet syndrome. We construct the networks with a degree of interconnectedness at different quantiles and identify major systemic risk emitters and receivers. Furthermore, we find a spillover of the riskiness of deep-in-debt firms to banks. Smaller banking institutions evince a greater connection to banks and firms than larger ones. Our results are valuable for policymakers formulating financial stabilization policies and investors considering Indian markets for various opportunities.     

The real effect of banking crises: Finance or asset allocation effects? Some international evidence

This paper analyzes whether the decline in economic growth that follows a banking crisis occurs because of a reduction in the amount of credit available (finance effect) or a worsening in the allocation of investable resources (asset allocation effect). We use a sample of more than 2500 industrial firms in 18 developed and developing countries that experienced 19 systemic banking crises between 1989 and 2007. The results indicate that banking crises negatively affect firms’ intangible investments, which intensifies the economic downturn. The negative growth effect produced by the worsening of the investment allocation is stronger in countries with highly developed financial systems and institutions.     

Bank supervision and corruption in lending

Which commercial bank supervisory policies ease—or intensify—the degree to which bank corruption is an obstacle to firms raising external finance? Based on new data from more than 2500 firms across 37 countries, this paper provides the first empirical assessment of the impact of different bank supervisory policies on firms’ financing obstacles. We find that the traditional approach to bank supervision, which involves empowering official supervisory agencies to monitor, discipline, and influence banks directly, does not improve the integrity of bank lending. Rather, we find that a supervisory strategy that focuses on empowering private monitoring of banks by forcing banks to disclose accurate information to the private sector tends to lower the degree to which corruption of bank officials is an obstacle to firms raising external finance. In extensions, we find that regulations that empower private monitoring exert a particularly beneficial effect on the integrity of bank lending in countries with sound legal institutions.     

Systemic Bank Risk in Brazil: A Comprehensive Simulation of Correlated Market, Credit, Sovereign and Inter-Bank Risks

In this study we present a comprehensive forward‐looking portfolio simulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, private sector and Sovereign credit risk, and inter‐bank default risk. In order to produce better integrated risk assessment for banks and systemic risk assessments for financial systems, we argue that reasonably detailed modeling of bank asset and liability structures, loan portfolio credit quality, and loan concentrations by sector, region and type, as well as a number of financial and economic environment risk drivers, is required. Sovereign and inter‐bank default risks are increasingly important in the current economic environment and their inclusion is an important model extension. This extended model is demonstrated through an application to both individual Brazilian banks (i.e., 28 of the largest banks) and groups of banks (i.e., the Brazilian banking system) as of December 2004. When omitting Sovereign risk, our analysis indicates that none of the banks face significant default risk over a 1‐year horizon. This low default risk stems primarily from the large amount of government securities held by Brazilian banks, but also reflects the banks' adequate capitalizations and extraordinarily high interest rate spreads. We note that none of the banks which we modeled failed during the very stressful 2007‐2008 period, consistent with our results. Our results also show that a commonly used approach of aggregating all banks into one single bank, for purposes of undertaking a systemic banking system risk assessment, results in a misestimate of both the probability and the cost of systemic banking system failures. Once Sovereign risk is considered and losses in the market value of government securities reach 10% (or higher), we find that several banks could fail during the same time period. These results demonstrate the well known risk of concentrated lending to a borrower, or type of borrower, which has a non‐zero probability of default (e.g., the Government of Brazil). Our analysis also indicates that, in the event of a Sovereign default, the Government of Brazil would face constrained debt management alternatives. To the best of our knowledge no one else has put forward a systematic methodology for assessing bank asset, liability, loan portfolio structure and correlated market and credit (private sector, Sovereign, and inter‐bank) default risk for banks and banking systems. We conclude that such forward‐looking risk assessment methodologies for assessing multiple correlated risks, combined with the targeted collection of specific types of data on bank portfolios, have the potential to better quantify overall bank and banking system risk levels, which can assist bank management, bank regulators, Sovereigns, rating agencies, and investors to make better informed and proactive risk management and investment decisions.     

Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies

This paper discusses important features of financial dollarization and its implications for the macro economy and financial sector deepening. Despite the need to slow down the rate of inflation and keep exchange rates under control, to achieve growth and economic development, monetary policies may permit increases in the base money to keep pace with real GDP growth. In heavily dollarized economies, during periods of sharp devaluations of the domestic currency, financial assets and liabilities shift toward foreign currency, exacerbating downward pressure on the exchange rate. When central banks face pressures to keep the exchange rate steady in nominal terms, interest rates in the domestic currency are set at levels substantially higher than those on dollar assets. In such states of the world, banks prefer to lend to the government sector at these higher rates than to the private sector. Although private firms may benefit from lower rates on dollar loans, they also face significant exchange rate or currency risk due to the currency mismatch emerging from their dollar debt while their receivables may tilt toward domestic currency denominated instruments. This weakens their balance sheet, which in turn increases the exposure of the banking sector to a variety of risks.     

以创新带动传统信贷业务市场拓展

本文通过分析当前国内金融市场现状并借鉴国外金融市场发展经验,认为银行传统信贷业务仍然具有良好的发展前景,在未来一定时期内仍将是企业融资的主渠道,是银行开展其他金融服务的基础和平台,并且结构将适应经济结构变化不断优化.针对近年来银行传统信贷发展面临的资本约束、金融脱媒和利率市场化等冲击,提出了以创新手段带动银行传统信贷业务和市场拓展的观点,即以理念创新重新定位传统信贷业务市场,以价格创新应对资本约束和利率市场化,以科技创新优化传统信贷发展模式,以产品创新和流程创新解决传统信贷难点,以营销创新推动信贷市场拓展,以手段创新加强信贷风险管理.     

以创新带动传统信贷业务市场拓展

本文通过分析当前国内金融市场现状并借鉴国外金融市场发展经验，认为银行传统信贷业务仍然具有良好的发展前景，在未来一定时期内仍将是企业融资的主渠道，是银行开展其他金融服务的基础和平台，并且结构将适应经济结构变化不断优化。针对近年来银行传统信贷发展面临的资本约束、金融脱媒和利率市场化等冲击，提出了以创新手段带动银行传统信贷业务和市场拓展的观点，即以理念创新重新定位传统信贷业务市场，以价格创新应对资本约束和利率市场化，以科技创新优化传统信贷发展模式，以产品创新和流程创新解决传统信贷难点，以营销创新推动信贷市场拓展，以手段创新加强信贷风险管理。     

The Separation of Banking and Commerce in the United States: An Examination of Principal Issues

Banking law and regulation in the United States have customarily restricted the nonbanking activities of banks and the banking activities of nonbanking firms, producing a separation of banking from commerce. While such separation is surprising in a free market system that, in general, permits private firms to engage in any lawful business, it is understandable in an historical and institutional context. Proposals for change raise a wide range of economic and other issues. This paper identifies, catalogues, and elaborates these issues to provide a framework for informed judgment and further investigation. It begins with a review of early restrictions on bank activities in the United States and contrasts U.S. developments with those in several other countries in which banks have not been separated from commercial and industrial firms. It, then, reviews relevant issues arising in the financial sector, commercial sector, related to central banking and supervision, and socio‐political concerns. It concludes that limited banking, as it exists in the United States, and universal banking, as it exists in other countries, have differential benefits and costs. Summary evaluation based on standard cost benefit analysis, however, presents serious difficulties. Considerable uncertainty remains about effects in a number of areas. Many of the costs and benefits are not quantifiable, and some that are quantifiable are incomparable. A careful review of all existing evidence, identification of gaps, and further investigation is needed.