实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

中国经济学的世纪:21世纪

中国转轨与发展的经济实践是中国经济学成长之母,具有勤奋、睿智而甘于奉献的牺牲精神、宽广而深厚的经济学、数学和人文科学功底的中国经济学家是中国经济学的成长之父。     

Estimating and testing process accuracy with extension to asymmetric tolerances

Pearn et al. (Commun. Stat. Theory Methods, 27(4):985–1000, 1998) introduced the process accuracy index C _a to measure the degree of process centering, the ability to cluster around the center. In this paper, we derive an explicit form of the cumulative distribution function for the estimator [^(C)]_a{\hat{C}_a } with the case of symmetric tolerances. Subsequently, the distributional and inferential properties of the estimated process accuracy index C _a are provided. Calculations of the critical values, P-values, and lower confidence bounds are developed for testing process accuracy. Further, a generalization of C _a for the case with asymmetric tolerances is proposed to measure the process accuracy. Based on the results practitioners can easily perform the testing of the process accuracy, and make reliable decisions on whether actions should be taken to improve the process quality. An application is given to illustrate how we test the process accuracy using the actual data collected from the factory.     

精益六西格玛在装备维修保障中的应用研究

我军装备保障体制中存在保障力量不足和高新技术装备维修效率不高的情况。精益六西格玛采用"定义——测量——分析——改进——控制"流程,并在实施中加入了精益的哲理、方法和工具,通过对流程的分析与改进能显著提高质量和效率,本文对精益六西格玛在装备维修保障中的应用方法进行了研究,能够减少装备维修过程中的浪费与变异,从而提高装备维修效率,保障作战(训练)任务的完成。     

状态观及过程观视域下组织变革准备研究综述与展望

变革准备是组织成员关于组织变革必要性、组织变革能力等方面的信念、态度和意图,是评价组织成员（个体或群体）变革反应的重要指标,其理论基础包括变革干预理论和动态能力理论。研究发现,自我概念、风险态度、学习动机、智商等个体因素,以及领导、沟通、组织氛围等情境因素都会影响变革准备,而变革准备直接影响员工变革意愿与变革行为,进而对组织效能产生影响。目前,变革准备研究还未形成独特的研究路径,也不足以为理论系统化提供支持,未来研究还需对变革准备的影响因素、维度结构、测量工具及内在认知机制等开展进一步探讨。     

国内外既有建筑综合改造管理体制比较研究

既有建筑物改造对提高人民群众的生活水平和改善生活条件,有非常重要的意义。研究我国既有建筑综合改造的管理体制,明确改造过程中各方面的权利义务关系和资金来源,对全面科学规范地管理既有建筑物综合改造活动有重大的理论意义和实践价值。着重分析了我国法律对既有建筑综合改造管理的相关规定,研究了我国既有建筑综合改造管理的机构设置和资金来源;在借鉴新加坡以及美国等的既有建筑综合改造方面的经验的基础上,结合我国的具体实践,针对我国既有建筑物综合改造管理体制改革提出了建议。     

Women's Leisure as Political Practice: A Feminist Analysis of Orange Is the New Black

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this article is to examine representations of women's leisure portrayed on the popular Netflix television series Orange Is the New Black (OITNB). Using a feminist lens rooted in the notion of interconnectivity, we draw on four television tropes proposed by Pozner (2010 Pozner, J. L. (2010). Reality bites back: The troubling truth about guilty pleasure TV. Berkeley, CA: Seal Press. [Google Scholar]) that are commonly used to depict women characters on television to analyze representations of women's leisure in the first three seasons of OITNB. Our analysis reveals the complex and messy ways representations of women's leisure on OITNB can be used to discipline, reproduce, but also challenge power relations associated with common media tropes, acting as a form of political practice. We conclude by considering the implications of how these representations can influence the lives of women consuming this media content as part of their leisure.     

Information,hedging demand,and institutional investors: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

This paper examines the effect of hedging demand by various types of institutional investor on subsequent returns and volatility. Using data from the Taiwan Futures Exchange, empirical results indicate that the hedging demand of foreign investors has a significant negative impact on subsequent returns and volatility. In addition, trading strategies based on the extreme hedging demand of foreigners are positively correlated with trading performance. Furthermore, there is evidence to show that returns (volatility) also affect the subsequent hedging demand of foreign investors, suggesting a feedback relation. Finally, the hedging demand of foreign investors has a greater impact on subsequent returns and volatility after global financial turmoil. Accordingly, this paper concludes that foreign investors are informed hedgers in the Taiwan futures market, especially after global financial turmoil.     

The effect of taxation on labour supply: the case of moonlighting

The authors provide a simple test of supply-side economics by estimating the responsiveness of moonlighting labour supply to changes in the marginal tax rate and the wage rate. While standard theory teachers that changes in taxes and wage should have opposite and equal effects on labour supply, taxes affect the entire asset position of the household. In the short run, an adjustment of hours in the second job may be the only option available to an individual in responding to a tax change. Thus, analyses based on after-tax wages may understate supply-side effects. To estimate these effects a tobit procedure is employed. The empirical results suggest a backward-bending supply curve over thet range of moonlighting hours. Data consist of a subsample of male blue-collar workers from the 1978 cross-section of the Panel study of Income Dynamics.