An examination of the effects of 2014 concealed weapons law in Illinois on property crimes in Chicago

The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of ‘may issue’ Concealed Carry Weapons (CCW) law implemented in early 2014 in Chicago. Based on the daily community-level crime data from January 2006 to December 2015, using zero-inflated negative binomial difference-in-difference specification with Philadelphia as the control group, the property crimes in Chicago declined after the implementation of ‘may issue’ CCW law. The findings are robust to alternate treatment windows and to a placebo test using time windows before implementation of the law.     

The relationship between people's activities and values with the protection level and biodiversity

We investigated how people's recreational activities, values, and land use preferences are related to the protection level, biodiversity and cultural heritage values of nature-based tourism areas in northern Finland. We assessed peoples' opinions using a public participation geographic information system (PPGIS) and analyzed the data together with spatial biodiversity and cultural heritage data from the same area. Associations between the PPGIS place markings with the protection level and biodiversity values were quite low, and for the cultural heritage sites they were altogether missing. Negative preferences were often marked in areas with high numbers of sites rated as pleasant and they overlapped with each other, indicating conflicting preferences. Since most activities are not noticeably related to the protection level or biodiversity values of a site they can be planned so as to protect the biodiversity of the area.     

Bear beta

We test whether bear market risk, time variation in the probability of future bear market states, is priced. We construct an Arrow–Debreu security that pays off in bear market states (AD Bear) from traded Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index options and use its returns to measure bear market risk. We find that bear beta (exposure to bear market risk) has a strong relation with expected stock returns that is robust, persistent, and remains strong among liquid and large stocks. Historical bear beta also predicts future bear market risk exposure. We conclude that bear market risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns.     

中国OFDI技术创新效应的传导机制——基于资本要素市场扭曲视角的分析

本文尝试构建一个中国OFDI(对外直接投资)技术创新效应传导机制理论框架,并对资本要素市场扭曲影响OFDI技术创新效应的作用机制和结果进行拓展分析。研究表明:近年来中国企业OFDI对技术创新具有正向效果,且OFDI企业可以通过从劳动密集型向资本密集型的转型升级、提高管理效率以及生产效率这三个重要途径实现其技术创新能力的跃升;现阶段中国资本要素市场扭曲现象会显著抑制企业OFDI技术创新效应,作用机制是,资本要素市场扭曲作为干扰外部摩擦因子,通过降低企业资本要素密集度和生产效率等渠道抑制企业OFDI技术创新效果。本文进一步提出构建知识产权金融化建议,包含知识产权股权化、知识产权证券化和知识产权流动性机制等内容,以此引导更多金融资源和人力资源参与企业技术创新活动。     

中国制造业企业开放式创新行为及影响因素

开放式创新行为对提高企业创新绩效有显著影响。基于2012年世界银行调查数据，对中国企业开放式创新行为影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明：①企业开放式创新行为在区域、行业上分布不均；②竞争对手情况、信息技术支持度、数据软件共享度、产品出口、产品销售范围等对研发合作有显著正向影响；③高管工作经历、竞争者数量、信息技术支持度等对企业创新开放度有显著正向影响。     

Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies

We document carry trade returns based on the moments extracted from options on the underlying currencies. We establish three important results. First, a currency pair is predicted to have greater excess returns if option-implied returns are more volatile, are more left-skewed, and have fatter tails than the returns of other currency pairs. Second, strategies based on option-implied information improve on benchmark strategies based on realized market returns and macroeconomic data. Third, if the option-implied returns of a currency pair are more left-skewed than in the past, anti-carry trades rather than carry trades perform better.     

要素禀赋、政策支持与金融资源配置:产业转移的承接模式研究

本文以商务部认定的湖南、江西省四个加工贸易梯度转移重点承接地为样本,对比分析要素禀赋、政策支持和金融资源配置的异同及其影响,在总结归纳各自承接模式的特点的基础上,提出了"精品园区+核心企业+直接融资+金融助推"的较优模式,认为政策支持是影响承接产业转移的直接因素;要素禀赋的影响力有弱化趋势;金融资源配置是影响承接力和产业结构优化升级的重要因素;对待处于不同生命周期的产业转移企业,承接的工作重点应各有侧重.因此,承接产业转移要与"转方式、调结构"的战略方向一致.注重与本地的产业互补相结合,并需要金融部门的主动参与和服务创新.     

Cross-hedging strategies between CDS spreads and option volatility during crises

This paper presents a joint analysis of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and the implied volatility surface for five European countries from 2007 to 2012, a sample period covering both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. We analyze to which extent effective cross-hedges can be performed between the credit and equity derivatives markets during these two crises. We find that during a global crisis a breakdown of the relationship between credit risk and equity volatility may occur, jeopardizing any cross-hedging strategy, which happened during the GFC. This stands in sharp contrast to the more localized European debt crisis, during which this fundamental relationship was preserved despite turbulent market conditions for both the CDS and volatility markets.     

Is momentum really momentum?

Momentum is primarily driven by firms' performance 12 to seven months prior to portfolio formation, not by a tendency of rising and falling stocks to keep rising and falling. Strategies based on recent past performance generate positive returns but are less profitable than those based on intermediate horizon past performance, especially among the largest, most liquid stocks. These facts are not particular to the momentum observed in the cross section of US equities. Similar results hold for momentum strategies trading international equity indices, commodities, and currencies.     

面向全球人工智能高影响力科研人员的综合学术影响力评价模型研究

科技人才对于一国的科技创新发展至关重要,科学合理地评价科研人员的学术影响力,对于科技人才遴选、引进、管理具有重要意义,同时,也可以营造公平、公正的学术氛围,推动科技发展。本研究针对新兴科技领域知识迭代更新快的特点,提出了新兴科技领域科研人员学术影响力综合评价体系和模型,并以人工智能高影响力科研人员为例进行了分析。结果发现,成果引用情况对学术影响力影响最大,其次是学术研究能力和学术活跃程度。本研究提供了一种指标客观赋值的方法,对于科研人员学术影响力的客观评价提供支撑。