本世纪以来的西方经济增长理论

中国经济正处于动能转换的关键时期,需要来自增长理论研究的支持。21世纪以来,经济增长理论的研究取得了显著进步。本文旨在评述增长理论的最新发展,进一步梳理理论脉络和主流观点,为学术研究和经济实践提供参考。本文认为,经济增长理论已逐渐形成制度决定理论、结构转变理论和人口过渡理论三大主流观点。同时,本文指出了增长理论存在的不足。在总结现有文献贡献与不足的基础上,对未来研究方向进行了展望。     

Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates

The size of fiscal multipliers is intensively debated as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. We use data on multiplier estimates from over a hundred scholarly studies, and ask whether the national imprint and various incentives that the authors face can help explain the large observed variance in these estimates. We complement this meta-analytical data with information on economists’ personal characteristics collected from their biographies and through a self-conducted survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that national background and policy orientation of researchers matter for the size of multiplier estimates. We only find weak support for the hypothesis that the interests of donors financing the research are relevant. Significant biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

盘锦30万吨原油码头超硬地层沉桩施工技术

在标准贯入度达到60击以上的较厚极密实砂土地层沉桩时,受船机设备性能限制通常会采用冲水沉桩等施工工艺,而配备D-180柴油锤的"葛飞腾2"超大型打桩船合理利用船机性能,采用动态控制锤击过程的施工方法可以直接穿透此类地层,效果良好。     

Is it the economic policy,stupid? Economic policy,political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage

Incumbent politicians have a well-known advantage in seeking re-election. Using the Economic Freedom of North America dataset, we examine how changes in economic policy during an incumbent governor's tenure influence the probability of losing their re-election bid. Put simply, does economic policy matter for the incumbent advantage? The results suggest that a decrease in economic freedom increases the probability of an incumbent loss, regardless of the governor's party. A decomposition analysis indicates that these results are primarily driven by the government spending sub-index. Furthermore, a more granular analysis suggests that: (1) increases in government consumption spending and government employment are associated with a lower probability of re-election among Democratic incumbent governors, but a higher probability among Republicans; (2) increases in transfer payments relative to personal income reduce the likelihood of re-election, regardless of party; and (3) among Republican incumbents, increases of income taxation and of top marginal tax rates are associated with a higher and lower, respectively, probability of losing re-election. Finally, controlling for a variety of demographic, political and socioeconomic factors, we find that high unemployment increases the probability that an incumbent loses re-election, while increasing net population migration reduces it.     

Females' perspectives on tourism's impact and their employment in the sector: The case of Petra,Jordan.

This study aims to explore the trend towards gender equality in the tourism sector of the Petra region, Jordan. To do so, a mixed methods design including a questionnaire and in-depth interviews was employed for female residents of rural and urban areas in the region. The results show that women do not have favourable view of tourism's economic impacts and that several barriers exist to their employment in the tourism sector. The findings' implications and future studies are addressed.     

铁路的长期经济影响:基于中国1980年铁路线的研究

铁路与经济发展之间的关系得到了大量的研究，但均集中于短期经济影响，且很少关注铁路在发展中国家从传统农业社会向工业社会转型过程中的作用。文章使用中国1980年的铁路线研究了铁路在中国转型期对县域经济发展的长期影响。研究发现，铁路开通对县域经济发展具有显著的长期促进作用，具体来说，以2000年数据为例，1980年铁路线对以GDP为衡量指标的经济发展的年均促进作用为1.16%。排除了无法观测因素和溢出效应、控制县级异质性、以及使用"三线建设"作为外生冲击的结果均支持上述结论。机制检验发现，铁路促进了县域层面的工业化，同时还显著增加了县域层面的外商投资和出口，进而促进了经济发展。本文的研究不仅提供了铁路的长期经济影响的经验证据，同时也揭示了以铁路为代表的基础设施对经济转型的作用，从而有助于理解中国经济增长奇迹，也为其他发展中国家转型提供了借鉴。     

Unemployment and labour force participation in Spain

This article examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and the labour force participation rate in Spain. Cointegration analysis is performed for aggregate, male and female time-series. Results suggest that there is no a long-run relationship between the two variables for the aggregate and male cases. However, the findings support a long-run relationship between the two variables for the female time-series. Thus, the unemployment invariance hypothesis is supported in the two former cases but not in the latter.     

海洋科技创新驱动区域经济增长影响效应分析

海洋经济被视为引领世界经济发展的新引擎.基于结构方程模型在经济学领域分析复杂关联因素中的优势,采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型研究海洋科技创新能力、蓝色经济发展和区域经济发展之间的关联效应,分析海洋科技与经济发展之间的内在作用机理.实证研究表明:海洋科技创新能力对蓝色经济发展具有显著的直接促进作用;引入蓝色经济作为中介变量形成传导路径,科技创新能力对驱动区域经济发展具有间接效应及明显的总体作用.     

基于MOA理论消费者绿色农产品溢价支付意愿驱动路径分析——以大米为例

[目的]随着我国人民生活水平的提高,绿色农产品愈发得到消费者的青睐。文章旨在探析消费者绿色农产品意愿溢价水平及其溢价支付意愿的驱动路径,以期为绿色农产品产业的发展提供相应政策启示。[方法]基于MOA理论分析框架,利用结构方程模型和消费者调查数据,该文以主粮大米为例展开分析。[结果]以普通大米5元/kg为基准价格,消费者绿色大米平均意愿溢价水平为125.7%,意愿溢价水平从高到低排序依次是东部地区(145.2%)、中部地区(140.09%)、西部地区(91.82%)。[结论](1)利己动机、利他动机、创新性能力、信息获取能力能够直接作用于消费者绿色农产品溢价支付意愿,而消费机会通过利己动机、利他动机和信息获取能力间接作用于溢价支付意愿;(2)基于多群组结构方程,研究发现个人可支配收入和文化程度能够调节消费者创新性能力、信息获取能力对消费者绿色农产品溢价支付意愿影响;(3)消费者创新性能力和信息获取能力对溢价支付意愿的影响存在地域差异性。