房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验

本文运用一个简单的数理模型与四象限模型分析了房地产价格影响通货膨胀与产出的机制,结论是:房地产价格通过影响总需求对物价水平产生压力,其中,房价对储蓄的边际影响十分重要。在此基础上,综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法实证检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系,其结论是:短期内,房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限,长期则对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响,并且,在房价与通货膨胀、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中,这种正反馈机制可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。     

合作主义:中国福利制度框架的重构

合作主义 (corporatism)或称三方伙伴合作的程度在当代发达国家的经济制度和福利制度中是一个值得关注的问题。它与几乎所有工业化国家的社会保障制度相生相伴 ,相互依存 ,成为一枚硬币的两个侧面 ;它是现代文明国家发展进程中一个不可逾越的历史阶段 ,是现代社会保障制度与现代社会福利制度的结构中一种不可或缺的要素。在社会保障制度设计上我们应该有一个理性的预期 ,使之充分体现着我们价值观的追求 ,利用“后发国家”的优势和我国独特的政治优势 ,以避免当代西方福利国家中出现的问题 ;我国在进行经济制度的转型过程中不能忽略福利制度的转型 ,我国新工会法的颁布客观上为树立现代社会保障和社会福利制度法律框架的第一个支柱打下了桩基     

发展中国家的货币错配与汇率制度选择困境

货币错配是诱发发展中国家货币金融危机的一个重要因素,也加大了危机的解决成本。货币错配问题的形成是内外因素双重作用的结果,长期实行的“软”钉住汇率制度是其中的一个重要原因。发展中国家普遍遇到了货币错配与汇率制度选择的两难困境,僵硬的汇率制度为货币错配风险的累积提供了正向激励,加深了货币错配,货币错配程度的加深强化了汇率制度的“浮动恐惧”,必须采取有效措施走出这个困境。     

国外通胀指数债券的发展、运作机理及借鉴

政府通胀指数债券作为债券市场的一种债券品种创新,具有能够帮助投资者规避长期国债投资的购买力风险、降低国债发行成本并有利于国债的顺利发行、为宏观经济调控提供有用信息等优势,我国应适时推出通胀指数债券以促进国债市场的发展。     

集体钉住汇率制与地区金融稳定——兼评人民币汇率制度改革

20世纪90年代以来,东亚地区是国际金融比较动荡的地区之一。麦金农主张东亚各经济体实行“集体钉住美元”制度,以保证地区金融稳定。从理论和实践分析,集体钉住汇率制有其内在的稳定机制,也有内源性的动荡缺陷,稳定性和脆弱性同存。目前东亚各国和地区非正式的共同“软钉住美元”,有一定的合理性;但从长远看,这种集体钉住美元制度难以维持。当前人民币汇率改革不会影响东亚地区的金融稳定,维持国内金融稳定,才能防止地区金融动荡。     

伯南克货币政策主张及其影响-分析与预期

伯南克已于2006年2月1日接替格林斯潘担任了美国联邦储备理事会主席。本文分析伯南克的货币政策主张特征,比较这些主张与格林斯潘和其任内联储货币政策主张、决策风格的异同,并据此预期伯南克货币政策主张及其对联储货币政策的影响。     

R. J. Chambers on Securities and Obscurities: Making a Case for the Reform of the Law of Company Accounts in the 1970s

This study examines the contribution of Raymond J. Chambers to the British inflation accounting debate in the early‐to‐mid 1970s, from the perspective of the reception of his book, Securities and Obscurities: A Case for Reform of the Law of Company Accounts, published in 1973. To structure the empirical narrative, drawing on previously unpublished documents from the R. J. Chambers Archives, we employ Czarniawska and Joerges’ ( 1996 ) notion of the ‘travel of ideas’, and Mumford’s ( 1979 ) observation of the existence of ‘inflation accounting debate cycles’. The result is a narrative that traces the environmental and material circumstances that led to Chambers’ book having a lesser impact on the British inflation debate than one would expect based on the international exposure of his ideas, his influence at the time, and the empirical rigour of his proposal. The purpose of this exercise is to assess how contextual factors, such as the choice of publisher, use of promotional material, and distribution methods, can be as (or more) important than the substance of the proposed ideas, arguments, and solutions.     

中国经济波动的产出和通胀效应 ——基于供求冲击相关的SVAR模型分析

本文结合产出缺口-通胀形式的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线）,构建了产出缺口和通 胀率的SVAR模型,并将识别结果同B-Q约束条件下的识别结果进行比较,以此来探究我国近 三十多年来宏观经济系统中需求冲击和供给冲击对产出和通胀动态的效应。主要得出以下结 论：第一,供求冲击之间高度相关;第二,需求冲击是我国通胀波动的决定性因素,并且存在 持久稳定的效应。第三,供给冲击是我国经济增长的绝对主导力量。第四,我国存在相对陡峭 的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线）。第五,产出缺口与同比CPI对我国经济状况的拟合效果最好。     

Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Can political interference deconstruct credibility that was hardly-earned through successful stabilization policy? We analyze the recent switch in the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Brazil is the largest Emerging Market Economy to formally target inflation, having adopted the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in 1999. In the early years of IT, the BCB engaged in constructing credibility with price setting agents and succeeded to anchor inflation expectations to its target even under adverse conditions such as exchange rate crises. We argue that this effort to maintain IT rules-based policy ended in 2011, as a new country president and BCB board came to power. We then discuss the consequences of this credibility loss. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) we provide strong empirical evidence of the BCB’s shift toward looser, discretionary policy after 2011; (ii) preliminary evidence suggests that this shift has affected agents’ inflation expectations generating social and economic costs.