政治关联和融资约束:信息效应与资源效应

本文探讨政治关联缓解民营企业外部融资约束的微观作用机理。经验证据表明,政治关联确实能缓解企业融资约束,其核心机制在于信息效应和资源效应。政治关联能够起到信号发送功能,降低资金供求双方的信息不对称,这就是政治关联的信息效应;同时,政治关联有助于强化民营企业的资源获取能力,切实提高企业的未来总收益,这就是资源效应。经验研究还表明,资源效应占主导地位,政治关联缓解民营企业融资困境的关键在于资源效应。因此本研究的一个直接政策涵义就是,要解决目前民企融资难的问题,当务之急是要构建公平的市场环境,消解政策性歧视,给予所有企业同等的资源获取机会。     

经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求

本文在拓展背景风险理论研究的基础上,揭示了经济政策不确定性对保险需求的影响及其受地区文化制约的理论机制。并利用2007-2017年中国30个地区的月度面板数据,检验了经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求间的内在联系。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会对保险需求产生显著正影响,且这种效应在地区人身险需求上表现更明显;第二,将地区文化指标集纳入经济政策不确定性与保险需求关系的研究框架,发现地区文化差异会对经济政策不确定性影响保险需求产生调节效应。因此政府需在充分重视经济政策波动和文化对经济活动的双重影响基础上,加强国内社会保障体系建设,建立更透明的信息传递渠道,培育人们主动抵抗风险的意识和文化习惯,调整保险供给结构,以减少不确定性对社会经济行为的负面冲击。     

Organizational remembering as a trigger for cultural change: Exploring the episodic memories of a financial scandal

Organizational memory research has developed from the 'storage bin' model of memory towards emphasizing collective remembering. We advance this view by proposing organizational remembering not just as the process of evoking past events to reproduce traditions but also as a projection into the future using imagination. Empirically this is illustrated through the qualitative analysis of 27 episodic interviews with employees of a global financial institution, documents and the media coverage of the organization’s involvement in two well-publicized financial scandals. We explore the impact of the episodic memories of those events on employees' readiness for the cultural change programme launched by management after the scandals. The analysis shows how the negative media coverage of the organization generated a powerful dis-confirmation of its working practices among employees and how this was amplified by the strong emotional reactions remembering those events provoked. Management used both to re-frame the past in a narrative used to increase receptiveness to change. Yet the past was brought differently into the present by different organizational groups depending on the future each group imagined, counteracting the impact of the generic management narrative. The findings illustrate the collective, emotional and imaginative qualities of organizational remembering and provide new insights into the process of cultural change through the lens of memory showing how while memories may be shaped by management to respond to crisis, they can also become part of prospective and transformative change processes.     

Volatility dynamics of crypto-currencies’ returns: Evidence from asymmetric and long memory GARCH models

The objective of this paper is to select the most optimum model or set of models useful for modeling sixteen of the most popular crypto-currencies associated volatility. Five GARCH models, with different error distributions, are fitted to each of these crypto-currencies. The most effectively fit model or superior set of models is then selected through maximizing the likelihood and minimizing the AIC and BIC information criteria. The reached results prove that the majority of crypto-currencies turn out to be rather effectively modulated via the TGARCH with double exponential distribution. Indeed, the attained findings report an asymmetric effect whereby volatility turns out to increase rather by response to positive shocks than by response to negative shocks, implying an asymmetric effect that differs from that generally observed in stock markets. The increase in volatility, as emanating in response to positive shocks may well have its justification in the uninformed investors’ undertaken herding strategies.     

包容性创新环境对区域创新绩效的影响

首先利用熵值法从基础设施环境、创新性教育、主体、投资、制度、金融环境以及市场化程度7个方面对我国内地31个省（市）包容性创新环境进行测度。利用2011-2015年数据检验包容性创新环境与区域创新绩效之间的关系。结果表明，包容性创新环境对区域创新绩效有显著影响。最后，为了营造良好的包容性创新环境，提出东部地区要避免城镇化过程中出现“极化效应”，形成对中西部地区及东北地区的“涓滴效应”，中部地区构建创新的“洼地效应”以及西部地区形成“本地市场效应”等建议。     

金融科技如何影响银行业竞争

金融科技的产业化发展给商业银行和银行业竞争格局带来了显著而深远的影响。本文利用2011—2016年全国31个省份的经济金融面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型实证检验金融科技对于地区银行业竞争的影响。研究结果显示,金融科技对于地区银行业竞争的影响存在显著的空间地理效应和产业竞争效应。其中,金融科技的空间地理效应主要体现为显著的空间依赖效应,而金融科技的产业竞争效应则主要来源于“市场挤出”和“技术溢出”两个作用渠道。研究结论对于如何通过金融科技促进银行业有效竞争,促进商业银行更好地发挥服务实体经济功能具有重要意义。     

开发区层级与域内企业创新:激励效应还是挤出效应？——基于国家级和省级开发区的对比研究

中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,各地各层级开发区能否激励域内企业创新,对于引领区域经济高质量发展至关重要。与既有研究主要聚焦于国家级开发区不同,本文以2007-2018年上市公司为样本,结合手工收集整理的开发区域内企业信息,对比研究了国家级和省级开发区对域内企业创新活动的影响。研究表明,与国家级开发区显著促进域内企业创新投入不同,省级开发区表现出负向抑制作用。国家级和省级开发区对域内企业创新的影响机制也存在明显差异:国家级开发区通过税收优惠、政府补助和融资支持等“政策效应”,以及金融资源、研发人才和经济主体的“集聚效应”激励企业创新;而省级开发区的发展更容易受地方经济竞争的影响从而挤出企业的创新投入。进一步,国家级开发区对域内企业创新的促进作用在市场化程度较高的地区和中央国有企业中更明显;省级开发区的抑制作用在地方国有企业中更明显。本文研究为我国优化各层级开发区建设和促进地区经济高质量发展提供了决策参考。     

The volatility dynamics of spot and futures gold prices: Evidence from Russia

We examine the long memory property and structural break in the spot and futures gold volatility in Russia from 2008 through 2013. We find strong evidence of long memory in the volatility of both spot and futures gold series. The break dates are associated with the recent global financial crisis. Moreover, we investigate the volatility spillover effect between the Russian spot and futures gold markets using the corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (cDCC). The findings show relatively high level of conditional correlation between spot and futures gold returns. This outcome decreases the portfolio diversification benefits for gold investors.     

Regulations and productivity: Long run effects and nonlinear influences

This study examines the impact of product market regulations on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and explores whether regulatory reforms exert a nonlinear influence on TFP growth. It also distinguishes between short run and long run effects of regulation. The obtained empirical evidence reveals that lower regulations in the long run exert a significantly positive effect on TFP of OECD countries. Short run effects of regulation are not always statistically significant. The influence of regulatory changes is higher in countries with high levels of regulation. Also, the damaging effects of regulation are more intense in countries with low technology gaps. These results hold across a wide array of econometric specifications and variables that measure regulation and TFP.     

中国区域性对外直接投资的出口效应研究——基于大环渤海、泛长三角、泛珠三角经济区的出口效应差异性分析

论文以2003-2011共9年的面板数据为基础,通过把国内省市自治区（排除数据缺乏的西藏、贵州）划分为三个经济区,利用国家层面对外直接投资（以下简称为ODIG）和省市自治区层面对外直接投资（以下简称为ODIP）的序列数据,对这三个经济区的对外直接投资出口效应进行差异性分析,最终发现ODIG对三大经济区的出口均有创造效应,但作用强度不一样,而ODIP对三大经济区的出口没有显著的促进效用.