Early adoption,experience, and farm performance of GM corn seeds

The current article explores the characteristics that distinguish early from late adopters of GM corn and measures the productivity impacts of early adoption, for a sample of farmers in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The results of the adoption analysis confirm that size, education as well as specialization are positively correlated with early adoption. In addition, these results also show that farms that are mostly worked by family labor but hire some off‐farm labor are more likely to adopt GM seeds earlier in the diffusion process. The productivity analysis demonstrates the superiority of stacked varieties. At the same time, we find no evidence of a direct impact of experience on yields. Given the previously documented impact of early adoption on the use of stacked varieties, we conclude that experience plays a role through the adoption of these new technologies but does not play a role in allowing the producer to use the technology more efficiently, once it has been adopted.     

Entrepreneurial risk,investment, and innovation

I estimate the effect of uncertainty on risky innovation using a panel of 11,417 manufacturing firms. I find that an increase in uncertainty has a large negative effect on the risky innovation of entrepreneurial firms, while it does not have any significant impact on other firms. This negative effect is stronger for the less diversified entrepreneurial firms in the sample. The estimation results are consistent with the innovation dynamics generated in a model in which entrepreneurs are risk averse and cannot diversify the risk of their business.     

汇率的不确定性、投资区位选择与公司内贸易

本文通过建立投资国一受资国一国际市场的三国框架,分三种投资区位的国际生产模式,就汇率冲击对垂直型FDI的区位选择和公司内贸易的影响进行分析。研究表明：（1）当区位成本优势不能抵消汇率不确定性导致的损失时,跨国企业将会调整投资区位决策,考虑撤资回母国;（2）当汇率相对波动幅度处于某一范围时,跨国企业具有较强烈的倾向将投资从原东道国转移到其引资竞争国;（3）汇率不确定性对出口价格的传导效应,具有不完全性特点。出口价格的汇率波动风险弹性取决于国际市场的外部竞争度以及子公司组装成本占国际市场该产品价格的比重;（4）汇率波动风险对公司内贸易余额的传导程度具有不确定性。随着汇率风险程度的逐步加大,其对公司内贸易余额的影响作用渐强,逐步从弱弹性转化为较强弹性的传导。     

“好”的不确定性、“坏”的不确定性与股票市场定价——基于中国股市高频数据分析

不确定性并不是都是“坏”的,“好”的不确定性也同样存在。本文采用Barndorff-Nielsen et al.(2010)提出的已实现半方差作为股票市场“好”的不确定性和“坏”的不确定性的代理指标,并在此基础上构建了相对符号变差(RSV),分析RSV对中国股市定价的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股5分钟高频数据的实证研究发现:(1)与理论解释相一致,RSV与股票收益之间呈现负相关关系。无论是基于单变量分组、双变量分组还是公司层面的截面回归,这种影响在经济上和统计上都显著。(2)RSV是独立于已实现偏度的一个重要定价因子,且RSV对股票的定价能力强于已实现偏度的定价能力。(3)RSV对中国股市的影响是状态依存的,相对于经济景气程度高的状态,在经济景气程度低的状态下RSV定价影响更大。(4)基于RSV构建的投资组合的表现明显优于市场超额收益率组合、SMB组合和HML组合的表现。     

Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty

This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes.     

The relationship between national culture and the use of professional services: Evidence from two cross-country studies

Each year, clients spend large sums on professional services, such as accounting services, legal services and consulting services. While research has found significant cross-country differences in organizations’ spending on professional services, we do not know why they occur. Inspired by the organizational buying behavior literature, this paper investigates the influence of national culture on the use of professional services, particularly management consulting services. As the use of professional services involves considerable uncertainties—particularly for the buyer—it can be assumed to be influenced by cultural differences regarding the level of Uncertainty Avoidance, Individualism and Masculinity. By drawing on two independent cross-country studies, we show that organizations in high uncertainty avoidance and individualistic cultures use professional services less than organizations in low uncertainty avoidance and collectivist cultures. We found no relationship between Hofstede's dimension of Masculinity and the use of professional services. The findings contribute to the theorizing on how the cultural context influences organizational buying behavior and the purchasing of professional services.     

经济政策不确定性、区域经济复杂度与企业创新行为

构建包含宏观经济政策不确定性指标、区域经济复杂度和上市公司特征变量“宏观-区域-企业”的实证面板数据，在理论分析经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为作用机理的基础上，以区域经济复杂度为视角，对经济政策不确定性与企业创新行为作用机制进行再检验。研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新存在正向激励综合效应，同时，区域经济复杂度不仅能够促进企业创新行为，而且能够强化经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为的影响即抑制负向作用而强化正向作用。考虑内生性，通过替换核心变量检验稳健性以保证研究结论可靠，并且，研究企业特征发现，高科技企业和非高科技企业存在差异。     

The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry

We show that the macroeconomic uncertainty series from Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) contains information to forecast employment. The results indicate that the uncertainty measure is weak at forecasting the skilled labour but significantly carries forecasting information on the unskilled labour. The forecasting information increases if the sample is restricted to construction and manufacturing industries. Using rolling regressions to conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the uncertainty measure contains forecasting information for the unskilled labour in those industries for two quarters ahead. By providing detailed information about the forecasting power of uncertainty by skill and industry, this study will be helpful in designing more efficient labour market policies.     

Cultural distance and cross-border bank linkages

This study investigates the effect of cultural distance on global bank linkages using country-pair data for the period 1990–2013. We followed Schwartz (2006) to measure cultural distance, and employed the number of bank pairs involved in cross-border syndicated lending from the source to target countries as a measure of bank linkages. We found that cultural distance has a negative association with bank linkages. This effect is stronger in countries featuring higher informational asymmetries, as represented by weaker institutions, higher uncertainty, or revolution shocks. Our results hold even when employing alternative measures of bank linkages and cultural distance, and when considering the potential endogeneity of cultural distance.     

知识型员工冗余对中小上市公司二元创新的影响：环境特征的调节作用

以277家中小板和创业板上市公司2012-2017年平衡面板数据为样本，利用泊松模型，实证分析知识型员工冗余与企业二元创新的关系，并探讨外部环境特征（要素市场发育程度和市场不确定性）的调节机理。研究表明：企业应保持一定的知识型员工冗余，促进企业二元式创新，过多或过少的知识型员工冗余均不利于企业开展创新活动；不同的环境特征对二者间关系的调节作用存在异质性，要素市场发育程度会减弱知识型员工冗余与探索式创新、利用式创新间关系，而市场不确定性会加强知识型员工冗余与探索式创新、利用式创新间关系。