经济政策主要变量对控制中国失业率有效性的实证检验

随着中国经济的增长,失业率却一直居高不下,因此国家采取各种手段进行宏观调控。在回顾各种经济学派对失业理论研究的基础上,着眼于经济政策对控制失业率是否有效,在简要分析货币政策和财政政策对失业率影响的基础上,选取1991—2011年中国城镇登记失业率、货币发行量以及财政支出,通过对三者进行单位根检验和Johansen协整检验,得到三者存在唯一的协整关系,并建立误差修正模型,得出货币发行量对失业率影响较大并且较稳定的结论,并通过格兰杰因果检验,得出货币发行量和财政支出与失业率之间都不存在因果关系,最后在实证研究的基础上对当前中国如何控制失业率提出相应的对策。     

关于欧元在未来国际储备中地位的探讨

依托欧洲雄厚的经济实力，欧元的诞生有力推动了国际储备货币多元化发展，但作为形成日寸间不长的超主权货币，欧元也面临着需不断改革自身财政金融基础运行框架的要求。文章回顾了欧元在国际储备货币中份额的变化，探讨了影响欧元国际储备货币地位的积极因素和不利因素，并对欧元储备货币地位的前景进行了展望。     

Reducing reporting risk: Designating foreign currency forward contracts as cash flow hedges

We present an example that compares the effects on earnings of designating a foreign currency forward contract as either a cash-flow or fair-value hedge of a foreign currency denominated receivable. Entities engaging in exchange transactions not denominated in their functional currency frequently enter into foreign currency forward contracts in order to mitigate their foreign exchange rate risk exposure. The aggregate effect on earnings of the transaction gain or loss on the foreign currency receivable and the gain or loss on the forward contract is known on the date the forward contract is initiated. The effect on each period’s earnings during the term of a forward contract designated as a cash-flow hedge is also known on the date the contract is initiated; whereas the effect on each periods’ earnings from a fair-value hedge cannot be determined until the respective balance sheet dates. Therefore, designating forward contracts as cash-flow hedges may suppress volatility in reported earnings compared to designating forward contracts as fair-value hedges. In addition, the reporting risk (the amount of uncertainty surrounding the pending measure of an item to be reported in the financial statements) is lower when a forward contract is designated as a cash-flow hedge relative to designating it as a fair-value hedge. This suggests foreign currency forward contracts designated as cash-flow hedges are more consistent with the purpose of hedge accounting: to mitigate the effects on earnings of applying different measurement criteria for the hedge and the hedged item.     

Cointegration as an explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle

Some economists suggest that the failure of exchange-rate models to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting out of sample can be attributed to failure to take into account cointegration when it is present. We attempt to find out if cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy by examining the relation between the stationarity and size of the forecasting error. Results based on three macroeconomic models of exchange rates do not provide strong support for the proposition that cointegration matters for forecasting accuracy. The simulation results show that while stationary errors tend to be smaller than non-stationary errors, this is not a universal rule. Irrespective of the presence or absence of cointegration, none of the three models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, which means that cointegration cannot solve the Meese–Rogoff puzzle.     

Turning values concrete: the role and ways of business selection in local currency schemes

Alternative consumption schemes require the selection of producers and traders according to criteria and through processes that should make alternative values concrete. The way values turn concrete is crucial for the effectiveness of such projects. This paper investigates the ways criteria and processes are defined and their real meanings and uses through the case of associative local currencies. Drawing on the framework of proximities, it analyses local currency schemes as combining proximities (geographical and non-geographical) and selection processes set up for providers wishing to join. Selection processes may be based on a charter, an approval committee and screening criteria. The objectives of the selection, its measures in principle, the way in which it is applied as well as the practical consequences are discussed. Even when charters and formal participatory schemes for selecting providers are established, proximities appear as the keystone of selection and trust.     

Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy? The costs and risks of alternate carbon reduction policy pathways

Global leaders agree on the need to substantially decarbonize the global economy by 2050. This paper compares potential costs associated with different policy pathways to achieve tourism sector emission reduction ambitions (?50% by 2035) and transform the sector to be part of the mid-century decarbonized economy (?70% by 2050). Investment in emissions abatement within the tourism sector, combined with strategic external carbon offsets, was found to be approximately 5% more cost effective over the period 2015–2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. The cost to achieve the ?50% target through abatement and strategic offsetting, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020 and 3.6% in 2050. Distributed equally among all tourists (international and domestic), the cost of a low-carbon tourism sector is estimated at US$11 per trip, equivalent to many current travel fees or taxes. Exclusive reliance on offsetting would expose the sector to extensive and continued carbon liability costs beyond mid-century and could be perceived as climate inaction, increasing reputational risks and the potential for less efficient regulatory interventions that could hinder sustainable tourism development. Effective tourism sector leadership is needed to develop a strategic tourism policy framework and emission measurement and reporting system.     

Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns

We document that capital flows in and out of emerging or developed markets are sensitive to global equity market conditions. Capital tends to move out of emerging into developed countries in global down markets, leading to depreciation (appreciation) of emerging (developed) currencies. This generates a positive (negative) correlation between currency and equity in emerging (developed) markets which is amplified by the magnitude of the capital movement. We also verify that hedging currency risks may undo the natural hedge and increase the total return volatility under negative correlation.     

Research agenda for low-carbon mobility: Issues for New World cities

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon mobility (LCM) features strongly in debates about the sustainability of cities and their resilience in the face of demographic, economic, and climate change. Transport is a major source of carbon emissions and there are indications that these continue to increase, despite the considerable recent advances in vehicle, engine, and fuel technologies. Reducing carbon emissions from transport may become more difficult, not easier. A particular issue relates to the New World cities, typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed from the latter half of the nineteenth century onward and whose transportation systems were largely based around private vehicle ownership and usage. These cities are typically composed of low-density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent and resource and carbon emission intensive. This article develops a research agenda directed at determining and testing policy and planning measures relevant to the quest for low carbon mobility in New World cities. It suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls within the realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design details to enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives. Research topics identified for LCM research include (1) urban design and land use–transport integration (LUTI), (2) low carbon mobility policies directed at achieving widespread behavior change, (3) opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems and infrastructure, and (4) analysis and tools for informed decision making, including modeling, measurement, visualization, and especially assessment.     

城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学仿真研究——以武汉市为例

研究目的:从系统角度分析土地、人口、社会、经济、能源对碳排放的影响作用,并对武汉市2017—2030年不同政策情景下的土地利用碳排放进行模拟,为其低碳发展战略和低碳土地利用规划提供决策依据。研究方法:系统动力学方法。研究结果:(1)建立的城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型是有效的;(2)按照目前的发展趋势,武汉市的碳排放总量将保持逐年攀升的趋势;(3)经济的快速发展对武汉市土地利用碳排放量的增加具有显著的影响作用;(4)调整土地利用结构、调整产业结构以及提高能源利用效率都能够有效的减少武汉市土地利用碳排放量,其中调整土地利用结构和调整产业结构的作用效果相对来说更加明显。研究结论:转变经济增长方式、升级产业结构、调整土地利用结构和积极研发先进的低碳科学技术是武汉市低碳发展的重要途径。     

货币信用属性演化的历史与逻辑

通过讨论主要货币起源与演化理论的矛盾与不足,从货币取得人们信任的角度,尝试整合了货币起源与演化的事实与逻辑,由此可以认为货币的本质是信用,(商品、金属)货币和纸币一样都是信用货币,货币演化是货币内涵的威权因素和物的因素相互竞争的结果;且货币制度的核心是信用。维持人们对货币的信心与币值稳定应当是任何货币调控的出发点和归宿。