论我国住房商品化与住房消费

传统经济学理论认为,当一种商品的供给增加时,其价格呈下降趋势。然而我国当前的住房消费市场却恰恰相反：一方面,市场上出现了大量的商品房积压或闲置,而另一方面住房价格却依然居高不下。本文认为,出现这一问题的原因是供给没有有效地创造出自己的需求,而解决这一问题的方法是通过降低利率、成本以及减少税收等手段增加居民的相对收入并达到有效刺激市场需求的目的。     

中东欧转轨国家外资持股比例与银行竞争力、金融安全关系的实证考察

近年来我国银行业引进境外战略投资者的行为引发了理论界关于外资持股比例对中资银行竞争力提升与国家金融安全影响的争论。本文选取与我国具有相似的银行业改革历程、但改革先于我国的中东欧转轨国家为样本,实证考察这些国家外资持股比例与银行竞争力提升和金融安全之间的关系。得出的基本结论是:外资持股比例与银行竞争力的提升具有一定的联系,但并不十分紧密;从金融与经济关系的视角考察外资持股比例与金融安全的关系,并不能得出外资持股比例越高的银行对金融安全的威胁性越大的结论。     

提高银行资本充足率：减税还是注资？

激励相容银行监管的目的是，一方面实现宏观经济稳定，保证银行业的安全稳健运行，另一方面使银行业实现较好的盈利性。政府注资国有银行是为了充实银行资本金，提高银行业的经营稳健性。但注资具有低激励相容度，这在宏、微观两方面表现出来。微观方面可以通过净资产收益率与资本充足率的关系考察注资的激励相容程度，宏观方面则可以从不良贷款货币化效应来考察。与此同时，税收通过银行内源资本影响银行资本充足率，而目前我国银行业税负偏重。解决这个悖论的有效方法是要逐步降低银行业的税负，加大银行税返还，提高其盈利能力，通过自身的积累，增强内源补充资本能力，切实提高资本充足率。     

The Distributional Properties of the Debt to Equity Ratio: Some Implications for Empirical Research

The purpose here is to assess empirically the quasi-supply side model of the firm developed in the paper by Ashton et al. (2004 ) by testing the prediction of the model that the evolution of a firm's debt to equity ratio will be compatible with a non-linear (target adjustment) process whose underlying probability density function possesses no convergent moments. Using a thirty-two-year history of the debt to equity ratio for each of ninety 'mature' United Kingdom firms, a non-parametric estimation procedure shows that the debt to equity ratio evolves in terms of a process which is largely consistent with the predictions of this model. In particular, the evolution of the debt to equity ratio is compatible with a 'long (fat) tailed' density function with no convergent moments. This has the important implication, supported by our empirical analysis, that the linear dynamic models which characterize empirical work in this area will be mis-specified and will return inconsistent and temporally unstable estimates of the target adjustment process as a consequence.     

减轻银行业税负提高银行业资本充足率

随着加入WTO过渡期的结束,我国内资银行业普遍面临着与外资银行间开展激烈竞争,以及资本充足率不足两大问题。本文分析认为,我国银行业税负与国外银行业比较相对偏重,内资银行业税负与外资银行业相比也较重。因此,减轻税负,完善金融税制是提高我国银行业资本充足率、增强自身竞争力的当务之急。     

中国区域电力消费需求决定因素的实证研究

实证研究区域电力消费需求的决定因素,对我国各个地区能源(电力)供求与经济协调发展意义重大。以2004年中国省域电力消费量截面数据为电力需求的度量指标,采用截面回归分析模型和多种检验指标,分析并估计检验了经济、人口、电价及第二产业比重对区域电力需求的作用机制。结果显示:区域经济、人口、第二产业比重各增长1%,区域电力需求将分别增长0.38%、0.27%、1.91%,当电力消费价格增长1%时,区域电力需求将降低4.46%。结论表明:电力消费与区域经济及人口增长之间存在密切的内生联系,通过经济增长方式的转变和人口规模的控制对电力消费产生影响是可能的;第二产业比重和电价是影响中国区域电力消费的主要因素。     

大股东控制与现金持有价值关系的经验研究

本文以沪深两市2005—2010年391家上市公司为样本,检验了大股东控制对中国上市公司现金持有价值的影响。研究发现,第一大股东持股比例与企业价值间是一种近似U型的非线性关系,第一大股东持股比例的临界点为45%。将第一大股东持股比例与现金持有量的交互项引入模型,回归发现,当第一大股东持股比例小于45%时,交互项的系数显著为负,大股东控制的壕沟效应占主导;当第一大股东持股比例超过45%时,交互项的回归结果不显著。没有证据表明第一大股东性质会对企业价值发挥显著影响。     

Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio: The case of hedge funds

As recent research highlights that the Sharpe ratio has a decision theoretic foundation even in the case of asymmetric or fat-tailed excess returns and thus is adequate even for the evaluation of hedge funds, this note provides the first Sharpe ratio based performance analysis of the hedge fund market. Furthermore, it addresses the important practical question whether the choice of hypothesis test used to statistically compare Sharpe ratios can influence an investor’s hedge fund selection process. Our key findings are as follows: (i) Only a small fraction of hedge funds in our large dataset can significantly outperform passive investments in corresponding hedge fund indices. (ii) Especially in the presence of autocorrelated or skewed excess returns, the traditional test of Jobson and Korkie, 1981, Memmel, 2003 tends to overstate the number of significant outperformers and thus provides potentially misleading information for investors. Decision makers are advised to use the bootstrap test of Ledoit and Wolf (2008) allowing robust and more reliable inference.     

The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry

The Indonesian dairy industry has been viewed by the Indonesian government as an industry that has the potential to improve the welfare of low income and landless farmers through providing them with an additional source of farm income. As well, the government sees the industry as a vehicle for providing opportunities for employment in rural areas. From an economy wide viewpoint, its development is viewed as a way Indonesia might save foreign exchange since a large share of its dairy requirements have to be imported. A variety of measures have been used to assist the industry. This paper investigates one of the measures, the BUSEP scheme or mixing ratio regulation which requires domestic processors to use Indonesian produced milk before imported milk.