Exchange Rate Economics

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.

Time compression and MBA behavioral skill acquisition

Trends in master of business administration (MBA) education are favoring coursework offerings in time-compressed environments but without careful examination of learning implications. The academic literature is weak in this area, so the authors conducted a study of 558 MBA students using a behaviorally based pedagogy in management. In contrast to previous research, the authors developed arguments supporting time compression assuming certain boundary conditions. They found that students showed better behavioral learning outcomes in a shortened, 4.5-week semester versus a full 14-week semester. The authors conclude with implications for theory and practice.     

ERP与MRO系统集成过程建模与应用研究

为了实现产品生产阶段到服务阶段业务与数据的有效集成,从业务层和数据层对制造服务系统中的大修维护维修(MRO)与企业资源计划(ERP)的集成过程进行了建模与分析,对ERP与MRO系统之间的业务过程和信息交互过程进行了分析,建立了二者的业务集成框架模型,分析了ERP与MRO系统的数据结构转换过程,提出了二者数据集成模型。应用Web Services完成了ERP与MRO的系统集成开发,包括服务BOM集成、备品备件管理集成等。研究结果实现了制造和服务阶段关键产品数据信息的集成与反馈,打通了从制造到服务阶段的数据传递与集成,对进一步研究复杂产品生命周期管理的信息集成具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.     

Time-varying pricing may increase total electricity consumption: Evidence from Costa Rica

We study the implementation of a time-varying pricing (TVP) program by a major electricity utility in Costa Rica. Because of particular features of the data, we use recently developed understanding of the two-way fixed effects differences-in-differences estimator along with event-study specifications to interpret our results. Similar to previous research, we find that the program reduces consumption during peak-hours. However, in contrast with previous research, we find that the program increases total consumption. With a stylized economic model, we show how these seemingly conflicted results may not be at odds. The key element of the model is that previous research used data from rich countries, in which the use of heating and cooling devices drives electricity consumption, but we use data from a tropical middle-income country, where very few households have heating or cooling devices. Since there is not much room for technological changes (which might reduce consumption at all times), behavioral changes to reduce consumption during peak hours are not enough to offset the increased consumption during off-peak hours (when electricity is cheaper). Our results serve as a cautionary piece of evidence for policy makers interested in reducing consumption during peak hours—the goal can potentially be achieved with TVP, but the cost is increased total consumption     

Institutional investors and international investments in emerging economy firms: A behavioral risk perspective

While the extant literature has examined the influence of controlling and non-controlling principals on the internationalization decisions of emerging market firms, heterogeneity among non-controlling principals is largely ignored. The risk characteristics of different groups of owners, shaped by their institutional environments, could contribute to the differences in their preferences for firm internationalization. In this paper, we draw insights from institutional theory and behavioral risk perspective to examine the risk propensities and risk perceptions of various non-controlling principals, such as pressure-resistant (FIIs and mutual funds) and pressure-sensitive (banks, insurance companies and lending institutions) institutional investors. Empirical results from a sample of 2364 unique Indian firms during the 2005–2014 time-period show that, after controlling for firm-level resources and capabilities identified in prior literature, the ownership share of different types of institutional investors is associated with firms’ international investments differently. While pressure-sensitive institutional investors, such as banks and insurance companies, are not supportive of foreign investments by firms, pressure-resistant institutional investors, such as FIIs and mutual funds, are supportive of this strategic decision. Furthermore, our results show that the family ownership in a firm (measured in terms of family shareholding) further lowers the preference of pressure sensitive institutional investors for internationalization, whereas family ownership positively moderates the pressure resistant investors towards internationalization.     

Golf Versus Nongolf Club Operations: Benchmarks for 2014

With the club industry comprising of different types of clubs, a more in-depth analysis separating clubs with and without golf operations would be beneficial. Financial performance can be summarized via financial ratios. This study surveyed 115 clubs regarding their financial performance and calculated 24 financial ratios for 2014. The median profit margin of all clubs was at 1.65%. Clubs with golf operations reported a median profit margin at 1.73%, doubling that of the nongolf operations at 0.83%. T-tests using means of financial ratios showed a statistically significantly difference in only the food inventory turnover by days.     

A field experiment to estimate the effects of anchoring and framing on residents’ willingness to purchase water runoff management technologies

Watersheds throughout the world have been severely polluted by nutrient-laden runoff that comes from industrial, agricultural, and residential sources. Efforts to reduce this runoff have focused on industrial and agricultural sources, while little attention has been paid to encouraging residents to reduce runoff from their properties. To study residents’ willingness to adopt landscaping practices that reduce runoff, we conducted a field experiment in the Delaware River watershed. In the experiment, over three hundred adults participated in a series of random-price auctions that revealed their willingness to pay (WTP) for five products that reduce nutrient runoff. To study how WTP can be influenced by attributes of the choice architecture, we randomized the starting bid values (anchors) and the way in which the external benefits of the five practices were framed. Compared to a neutral framing, a positive framing (using the product can improve water quality) increased average WTP by about one-third, while the estimated effect of a negative framing (failing to use the product can worsen water quality) was also positive, but smaller and not statistically different from zero. The estimated effect on average WTP from the anchor depends on how bids of $0 are modeled, but the results imply that higher anchors lead to higher WTP. Although we believe the magnitudes of our results should be considered suggestive and we recommend replications with higher statistical power, the results add to the evidence base that environmental programs can achieve policy-relevant gains in program performance through a series of small changes to the decision environment.     

What drives managers to insource production? Evidence from a behavioural experiment

Insourcing to countermand previous outsourcing decisions is becoming a widespread practice among firms. While the underlying performance drivers for firms (e.g., lead times, responsiveness, or security of supply) are well understood, the behavioural aspects underlying managerial decision-making processes regarding insourcing remain overlooked in empirical research. We study the effects of managers' attitudes toward insourcing, their perceived behavioural control (PBC) over the respective insourcing decision, and the effect of mimetic pressure on insourcing decision intentions and behaviour, while grounding our model in the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). We test hypotheses with data gathered in a vignette-based experiment among 145 managers and apply stepwise regression analysis to find support for the positive effects of attitude and mimetic pressure on intentions to insource. Our results found no support for the effect of managers’ PBC. We find moderation effects among the internal drivers (attitude and PBC) and between internal and external drivers (attitude and mimetic pressure) on insourcing behaviour. With these findings, we provide evidence of a unique boundary condition to the TPB in the insourcing context by explaining supply chain design choices with neo-classical and behavioural theory. We emphasize important behavioural aspects in insourcing decision-making and caution supply managers in this regard.     

Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where are the needs for further research. We conducted a structured literature search in Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar resulted in only 38 papers published between 1990 and 2018. Based on our findings we highlight three case studies as exemplary research in forecasting within the humanitarian context and list seven future research streams with specific research needs identified in each stream.