Industry aspects of takeovers and divestitures: Evidence from the UK

This paper examines takeover and divestiture activity at the industry level for the population of UK firms over the period 1986–2000. Consistent with US research, takeovers in the UK cluster both across industries and over time. The evidence for divestitures indicates clustering across industries only. The paper further investigates whether broad and specific industry shocks (e.g., growth, free cash flow, concentration, deregulation, foreign competition, technology, stock market performance) explain takeover and divestiture clustering at the industry level. The results suggest that broad shocks increase (decrease) the likelihood of takeovers (divestitures), although not significantly for takeovers. Specific industry shocks that increase the likelihood of takeover activity include low growth, the threat of foreign competition and high stock market performance. For divestitures, high industry concentration and deregulation increase activity. Little evidence is found for deregulation as a significant factor in explaining takeover activity.     

金融行业对实体行业的尾部风险传导研究——基于实体企业金融化视角

本文基于我国金融资本超额回报率的事实,在市场套利分析框架下实证检验了实 体企业金融化是抑制还是加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。数值模拟结果表明：从杠杆率来看,实体 企业金融化对杠杆率具有“双刃剑”效应,然而,实证结果发现,从长期经济后果来看,实体 企业金融化却显著提高了杠杆率,基于Altman-Z值的风险分析进一步发现企业破产风险显著 上升,从而加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。文章的研究结论有利于全面观察实体企业金融化带来的 的实际效果,也揭示了金融行业对实体行业的风险传导过程中的一个风险源,对于实体经济和 金融领域关于企业金融化效应的研究具有参考价值。     

京津冀协同发展下保定市建设用地对二三产业贡献的区域差异研究

作为京津冀核心城市之一,保定市土地供给与经济需求矛盾尤为突出。本文运用扩展后的柯布—道格拉斯生产(C-D)模型,测度2004-2013年保定市22个县(市)建设用地供给对二三产业的贡献,以期为保定市及各县建设用地科学管理提供依据。研究表明:2004-2013年保定市建设用地对二三产业的贡献值为12.69%,高于劳动力5.40%,低于固定资本78.47%;22个县市建设用地投入对二三产业发展贡献区域差异明显,这种差异主要受经济水平、区位条件、产业结构和资源条件等因素的影响。结论:保定市相关部门应因地制宜制定差异性建设用地供给指标,最大限度发挥有限土地资源产出水平,缓解土地供需矛盾。     

长江经济带生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率时空关联分析

建立超效率DEA模型并运用视窗分析测算2010-2017年长江经济带11个省市生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率，通过空间计量模型分析后者对前者的影响。结果表明：科研技术服务业效率对当地及周边地区的生态保护效率具有正向影响；科技资本服务业效率对当地生态保护效率具有正向影响，但对其周边地区有抑制效应；科技宣传服务业未对生态保护效率产生显著影响。据此，提出长江经济带通过提高科技服务业效率改进生态保护效率的对策。     

信息化对制造业升级的影响机制研究

信息化对制造业升级的影响日益深远，但其影响机制也更加复杂。通过微观、宏观双视角定性论述，借助GMM模型对中国283个城市2004-2014年的面板数据进行定量测度，探讨了信息化对制造业升级的影响机制。结果显示：信息化与制造业升级存在倒U型关系，当信息化程度未跨过风险拐点时，其对制造业升级会产生促进作用；信息化程度跨过风险拐点后，信息化对制造业升级的促进作用呈下降趋势。研究表明信息化并不总是促进制造业升级，信息化是机遇也是挑战，各地区需要因地制宜，结合自身工业化水平来发展信息化。     

Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits*

This paper deals with life care annuities, i.e. bundled products comprising a life annuity and long-term care insurance. It aims to assess the cost of converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits using a pre-existing public pay-as-you-go pension scheme. With this objective in mind, we present an actuarial method based on array calculus for valuing this type of life care annuity. The health dynamics of the annuitant rely on a reversible illness-death multistate framework. The paper contains a numerical example in which mortality and disability assumptions are based on data from the USA and Australia, although this should be viewed simply as an illustration. In addition, in order to check the coherence of these data, we compute life expectancy for both healthy and dependent persons, and then for dependent persons in each of the states of dependence. The effect of ruling out the recovery assumption on the annuity’s cost is also assessed. The analysis provides valuable insights into how much it would cost to introduce these annuities and enables us to make some policy recommendations to help ensure that this combined pension scheme has a good actuarial design.     

“With a young spirit,we will be young forever”: Exploring the links between tourism and ageing well in contemporary China

This research explores the entangled relationships between tourism, ageing and well-being in later life. We challenge the universal connotations of old age and “ageing well” and see their relationships with tourism as dynamic processes, in which older people are continuously producing different meanings and fulfilling personal quests over life courses. Using the contextualist and temporal lens, four scenarios of the evolving relationships between tourism and ageing well were identified from the lived experiences and travel histories of 48 Chinese senior travelers. The results demonstrate that how tourism affects ageing well are shaped by senior travellers' early life and travel experiences, the personalised conceptions attached to tourism and well-being, which are indeed complex responses to their personal, social and cultural contexts. This research unveils vivid pictures of Chinese older adults’ leisure lives, and highlights the urgency to develop relevant tourism policies and marketing strategies to cater for their changing needs.     

Stage-gate process for life sciences and medical innovation investment

Life science innovation has led to significant improvements in clinical outcomes and has been a source of financial growth for individuals and institutions capable of performing appropriate investments in this sector. Several groups have developed methodologies to assist medical technology innovators in the design and development activities. Unfortunately, these tools have not aided the general investment community to profit from these enterprises. This situation has contributed to a general reduction in risk capital directed towards life sciences compared to other industries. We review the current investment practices in the life science sector and present a comprehensive stage-gate model that aims to captures this investment process. An analysis of best practices and in-depth interviews with 68 life sciences investors and entrepreneurs worldwide are used to support such model. A single case-control study comparing life science investment execution within two similar investment firms was conducted to evaluate feasibility in the implementation of these practices. The stage-gate model includes (I) General vision and investment strategy definition; (II) Venture search, screening and rapid pre-evaluation; (III) Due diligence and negotiation of terms; (IV) Portfolio management, evaluation, and exit. The difference in execution of investment and results from a post-performance Root Cause Analysis were consistent with a reduction in perceived risk from the case company trained with the proposed model compared to the control. This suggests that our developed model and process may be useful in encouraging life sciences investment via evidence-based evaluations.     

Health insurance reform: The impact of a Medicare buy-in

The steady-state general equilibrium and welfare consequences of a Medicare buy-in program, optional for those aged 55–64, is evaluated in a calibrated life-cycle economy with incomplete markets. Incomplete markets and adverse selection create a potential welfare improving role for health insurance reform. We find that adverse selection eliminates any market for a Medicare buy-in if it is offered as an unsubsidized option to individual private health insurance. The subsidy needed to bring the number of uninsured to less than 5 percent of the target population could be financed by an increase in the labor income tax rate of just 0.03–0.18 percent depending on how the program is implemented.     

新能源汽车产业发展商业模式研究

商业模式是新能源汽车产业化的关键。从核心商业要素上看,新能源汽车产业主要出现了降低新能源汽车电池成本、解决能源供给问题和满足消费者需求三种核心商业要素的商业模式;从产业组织上看,新能源汽车产业主要有拓展型、介入型和合作型三种商业模式。为了构建有效的新能源汽车商业模式,需要明确发展重点、加大宏观指导、开展示范运营和创新试点工作以及协调好相关利益等。