数字经济背景下深圳居民消费结构变迁分析

近年来,伴随着我国电商交易规模的不断增加,数字经济蓬勃发展,逐渐成为改善消费环境、促进经济发展的新引擎。同时,数字经济具有很强的网络效应,可以带动居民消费实现转型升级。本文结合2008—2018年的电商交易规模与深圳消费结构相关数据,从衣、食、住、行等方面分析了居民消费结构的变化趋势。本研究认为居民收入增加、商品价格变动、粤港澳大湾区建设等是影响深圳居民消费的重要因素,最后给出实现深圳居民消费结构升级的相关建议。     

Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark,Germany and the UK

We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration involves only moderate wage, but large unemployment effects, since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility. The reverse is true for the UK and Denmark.     

How risky is a random process?

The riskiness of random processes is compared by (a) employing a decision theoretic equivalence between processes and lotteries on path-spaces to identify the riskiness of the former with that of the latter, and (b) using the theory of comparative riskiness of lotteries over vector spaces to compare the riskiness of lotteries on a given path-space. We derive the equivalence used in step (a) and contribute a new criterion to the theory applied in step (b). The validity of the new criterion, which applies second order stochastic dominance to utility distributions, is established by showing its equivalence to the benchmark decision theoretic criterion when comparing the riskiness of lotteries over any vector space. We demonstrate the theory’s tractability via diverse economic applications.     

要素禀赋、政策支持与金融资源配置:产业转移的承接模式研究

本文以商务部认定的湖南、江西省四个加工贸易梯度转移重点承接地为样本,对比分析要素禀赋、政策支持和金融资源配置的异同及其影响,在总结归纳各自承接模式的特点的基础上,提出了"精品园区+核心企业+直接融资+金融助推"的较优模式,认为政策支持是影响承接产业转移的直接因素;要素禀赋的影响力有弱化趋势;金融资源配置是影响承接力和产业结构优化升级的重要因素;对待处于不同生命周期的产业转移企业,承接的工作重点应各有侧重.因此,承接产业转移要与"转方式、调结构"的战略方向一致.注重与本地的产业互补相结合,并需要金融部门的主动参与和服务创新.     

Globalization,political institutions,financial liberalization,and performance of the insurance industry

This paper investigates the impacts of globalization, political institutions, and financial liberalization on the performance and risk-taking of insurance firms covering 1324 individual firms in 30 selected OECD countries. We find that greater globalization and a stable political institution lead insurance companies to exhibit a better performance—i.e., insurers adjust their strategies while being aware of institutional changes. By contrast, financial liberalization has an inverse impact on insurance company performance. Thus, greater globalization and a stable political environment both drive less risk-taking for insurers. These findings are particularly important to insurance markets’ competitors and national policymakers.     

On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.     

Politically connected directors and firm value: Evidence from forced resignations in China

The Central Committee of the Communist Party in China issued the No. 18 Document on Oct 30, 2013 to ban government officials from taking any positions in Chinese firms. Using this decision as a unique natural experiment, we examine the causal relation between political connections and firm valuation. We find that the value of firms with politically connected directors drops significantly upon the announcements of the new rule and the resulting director resignations. Furthermore, the decline in valuation is more pronounced when a firm is in a regulated industry, and when a departing director is of vital importance for building and maintaining political connections. Moreover, non-state-owned enterprises suffer more loss of value than their state-owned peers following the resignations of politically-connected directors. Finally, firms exhibit insignificant value loss when their departing directors are of less political importance in allocating resources. These results suggest that hiring politically connected directors has a positive effect on firm valuation in China.     

Credit market frictions and political failure

We study how an excessively favorable regulatory environment for banks could arise even with a perfectly competitive credit market in a median voter world. In our occupational choice model with heterogeneous wealth endowments, market failure due to unobservability of entrepreneurial talent endogenously creates a misalignment between surplus maximizing reforms and reforms that are preferred by the median voter, who is a worker. This is in contrast to the world without market failure where the electorate unanimously vote in favor of surplus maximizing institutional reforms. This paper illustrates how market failure could lead to political failure even in the benchmark political system that is free from capture by interest groups.     

金融发展、资产泡沫与实体经济: 一个文献综述

近年来的金融危机和不同国家的发展路径促使经济学家们反思资产泡沫与实体经济之间的关系。过去几年主流经济学中开始涌现出一些富有洞见的相关理论和实证文献。本文通过一条逻辑主线对基于这些文献的进展进行了系统评述。资产泡沫产生于金融市场的不完全性,它既影响实体经济的效率和增长,也影响实体经济的波动。其中,金融发展程度(金融市场的完全性)扮演了重要的角色。金融发展程度会影响到资产泡沫的产生;而资产泡沫既可以缓解经济中的扭曲,也可以加剧经济中的扭曲,使得经济增长偏离黄金律。制度质量则会强化金融发展程度的影响。金融发展程度与制度质量在开放经济的情况下,还会影响到资本在国际间的流向和结构,从而对实体经济的增长和波动产生更复杂的影响。本文中所综述的理论洞见对于中国这类金融市场欠发达、正面临金融自由化与结构转型的新兴市场经济体尤其具有重要的政策含义。本文最后讨论了中国金融改革和金融发展中需要注意的一些问题。     

Who cares about the environment? An empirical analysis of the evolution of political parties’ environmental concern in European countries (1970–2008)

Why do parties offer environmental policies in their political programs? While a number of papers examine the determinants of citizens’ pro-environmental behaviour, we know little about the extent to which political parties adjust their platform towards environmentalism. We investigate this process through data provided by the Manifesto Project Dataset (CMP) for 20 European countries over the period 1970-2008. Following the literature on public concern towards environment, we examine economic, environmental and political determinants. Our findings provide evidence that political parties’ environmental concern is strongly correlated with their political ideology and with country-level economic conditions.