Financial System and Housing Price

The 2007/2008 US financial crisis is related to the securitization of mortgage loans and the housing-price boom and bust. In this article, we test the hypothesis that housing-price change is related to the development of the financial system. Using panel data for 23 countries from 1988 to 2012, we have found that the housing-price growth rate increases as the financial system moves a bank orientation to a market orientation. The policy implication is that the government should beware sudden increases in the capital market relative to the banking sector. Especially, more sophisticated financial supervision with respect to housing-price movement is required when a bank-based financial system progresses quickly to a market-oriented financial system.     

U.S. Money Supply and China’s Business Cycles

This article models the U.S. dollar as a world currency in a global DSGE framework, and investigates the spillover effects of the U.S. money supply shock on China’s economy. Exchange rate targeting and capital controls in the context of dollar hegemony are investigated. Given a positive U.S. money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady-state levels in the medium term; while for the U.S. there is no inflation pressure. The spillover of liquidity effect exists. Cost-push effects and relative price effects are employed to discuss the transmission mechanism. Under the U.S. money supply shock, a fully liberalizing reform with no capital controls and a floating exchange rate of Renminbi is not the best reform for China.     

Annual report readability and corporate agency costs

Annual reports are the main sources of information for outside investors’ investment decisions and enable shareholders to supervise the management. Difficulties with the readability of these reports may therefore have serious consequences. Using 19,221 firm-year observations of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2001 to 2015, we investigate the association between annual report readability and corporate agency costs, where readability is proxied by report file length and/or file size. We find that firms with better annual report readability experience lower agency costs, and the negative association between readability and agency costs is more pronounced in firms with higher external audit quality, internal control quality or analyst coverage. These results hold after several robustness checks. The positive effect of annual report readability is stronger in private firms than in state-owned enterprises, and becomes stronger after the implementation of new accounting standards in 2007. Readable annual reports can help in monitoring corporate insiders’ opportunistic behavior and thus reduce agency costs.     

Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic

This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic.     

Dynamical macroprudential stress testing using network theory

The increasing frequency and scope of financial crises have made global financial stability one of the major concerns of economic policy and decision makers. This has led to the understanding that financial and banking supervision has to be thought of as a systemic task, focusing on the interdependent relations among the institutions. Using network theory, we develop a dynamic model that uses a bipartite network of banks and their assets to analyze the system’s sensitivity to external shocks in individual asset classes and to evaluate the presence of features underlying the system that could lead to contagion. As a case study, we apply the model to stress test the Venezuelan banking system from 1998 to 2013. The introduced model was able to capture monthly changes in the structure of the system and the sensitivity of bank portfolios to different external shock scenarios and to identify systemic vulnerabilities and their time evolution. The model provides new tools for policy makers and supervision agencies to use for macroprudential dynamical stress testing.     

工程优化设计

加强工程设计方案优化已成为现代工程建设开展的重要工作,是控制工程成本、提高工程造价管理的关键。基于此,论述工程优化设计的影响因素与不足,提出搞好优化设计的几点建议。     

Independent directors and earnings management: The moderating effects of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights

The research results on the suppressing effect of independent directors on earnings management are not consistent in existing literature. In addition, it has been argued that using financial statements provided by top management to investigate top management's earnings management is not appropriate. Therefore, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, we used external auditors (including the auditors of Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation and the auditors of two Big Four accounting firms – Deloitte & Touche and KPMG in Taiwan) as respondents in order to obtain less biased data. Second, we investigate the moderating effects of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights on the relationship between independent directors and earnings management. The results show that both the existence of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights have significant suppressing effects on the relationship between independent directors and earnings management. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

基于高职电类专业的职业能力培养体系研究

本文以高职电类专业为例,就高职职业能力体系的建立进行了研究,并分析了实践体系的重要性,提出了一些看法。     

新粤浙管道工程管材采购质量控制措施与建议

针对新粤浙管道工程的特点,在对川气东送管道工程的管材采购经验进行总结的基础上,从管材标准制定、供应商管理、全过程质量控制及科学管理的角度,对采购质量控制问题进行了探讨,并提出了加强管材采购质量控制的措施和建议。     

基于最大熵原理的政府投资工程委托代建风险研究

本文根据政府投资工程的风险特点,引入了熵的概念,建立了最大熵风险分析模型,利用熵权的特性求出各指标的客观权重,同时利用专家打分法得出各指标的主观权重,将两者结合作为各指标的综合权重,为进一步对风险指标的深入分析及风险决策研究奠定了良好的基础。最后,用实例验证了该模型的可行性和实用性。