中小股东"在线发声"与企业会计稳健性——来自雪球论坛的证据

长期以来,中小股东参与公司治理的实际效果饱受质疑,而社交媒体为中小股东提供的"在线发声"平台极大地扭转了中小股东边缘化的弱势局面.文章基于2013-2017年雪球股票论坛的讨论帖数据,分析了中小股东在雪球股票论坛的讨论对企业会计稳健性的影响及其机制.研究发现,中小股东在社交媒体上的在线讨论显著提高了被讨论公司下一年的会计稳健性,这一作用主要通过增加监管介入、抑制大股东掏空和降低企业盈余管理水平实现.此外,社交媒体讨论提高会计稳健性降低了债务融资成本,增加了股东权益保护,提高了公司业绩.因此,社交媒体已成为影响会计稳健性的重要因素,是中小股东参与公司治理的新"通道".文章的研究有助于揭示社交媒体的公司治理价值,丰富和更新中小股东在公司治理中的作用和功能,为会计稳健性的影响因素研究提供新的视角与证据.     

协调度视角下长江流域产业转移效率研究

实现区域经济协调发展是当前我国在块集聚与点极化双重压力下面临的现实难题，长江经济带尤其是欠发达省份承接发达地区产业转移是解决该难题的必然路径选择。产业转移活动因区域主客体特征变量不同，呈现出典型的多发式转移和门槛转移特征，使得区域政策制定缺乏科学指导，陷入盲目拼政策红利的状态。结合效率模型及考虑熵权的经济社会发展协同度分析，测算了2004-2016长江经济带各省（市）年综合产业转移效率，并考察了门槛效应值及变化趋势。结果表明：在考察期内，长江经济带各省（市）产业转移效率提升较为明显，但不少省（市）存在不协调的阶段性平衡关系，且这种关系还未显露经济总量驱动下的协同发展能力。     

川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异机制探测

[目的]客观揭示农村贫困化地域分异机制,为科学推进川西北高原藏区精准扶贫创新途径、综合战略和认真贯彻落实中央治藏方略提供参考依据。[方法]应用地理探测器模型、GIS空间分析与地统计方法等方法,探测川西北高原藏区贫困村单位面积GDP分异的主导因素,揭示农村贫困化分异机制,提出不同贫困化地域类型的扶贫政策措施。[结果]影响川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异的主导因素包括到主要交通道路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地利用、年均温度和海拔高程等,各因素对贫困村经济发展分异的解释力分别为80. 76%、12. 82%、8. 82%、5. 45%和3. 96%;贫困村经济发展贫困化的分异机制存在明显差异,可归纳为交通区位约束型、自然环境约束型和经济区位约束型等三大类型;农村贫困化驱动机制下的贫困村精准扶贫政策措施亟需因地制宜、科学推进、讲求实效,有序推进精准扶贫战略。[结论]精准扶贫应分类指导、重点突破,尤其加强贫困村交通、水利、公共基础设施建设和特色农牧业产业培植,注重多种扶贫模式的综合集成。     

基于个性化的江西省乡村旅游空间分布及评价

［目的］通过对个性化的江西省乡村旅游区的空间分布进行研究，并对个性化的红色旅游资源进行评价，以期对乡村旅游的发展提供新的思考路径，建立具有个性化的乡村旅游体系。［方法］运用GIS102操作平台对江西省119个红色乡村旅游区的空间分布情况进行研究，通过计算最临近点指数、地理集中指数和核密度计算分析其空间分布特征。以资源要素价值、开发价值和社会效益组成评价层，下分14个指标，对江西省红色旅游资源进行评价研究。［结果］(1)江西省红色旅游区分布类型为集聚型，分布不均衡； (2)在评价准则层中，旅游资源要素价值权重最大，为0647 9，其次为社会效应，权重为0229 9，开发条件权重最低，为0122 2； (3)指标层权重排名前三位的依次为资源完整性、教育性和组织管理，权重值分别为0162 0,0116 5和0111 7。［结论］江西省乡村红色旅游区数量较多，但整体呈集聚型分布特点； 旅游资源要素价值权重最高，且整体资源禀赋较强，社会带动效应明显，具有极强的开发价值。     

Winning us with trifles: Adverse selection in the use of philanthropy as insurance

Research Summary: We study the use of corporate philanthropy as a form of reputation insurance, developing a formal model of such insurance to examine how the terms of insurance in equilibrium change under different assumptions about the firm and its stakeholders. We then test the predictions from this model in the U.S. petroleum industry and find that philanthropic donations offer insurance‐like benefits, but are also positively associated with subsequent oil spills—firms that give more, spill more—with this association being stronger for spills that are under firms’ control and in states with low civic capacity. These results are consistent with an adverse selection/moral hazard equilibrium and suggest that the use of philanthropy as reputation insurance may benefit firms at the cost of society. Managerial Summary: Firms that donate to social causes develop a reputation for being socially responsible, and are often given the benefit of doubt when negative information about them comes to light. But are philanthropic firms truly more responsible? We argue that firms that donate more may be more likely to do harm—those that expect to do harm later are likely to give more now, and those that know their reputation protects them may become less careful. Evidence from the U.S. petroleum industry is consistent with this argument, with firms that give more having more subsequent oil spills, but only the type of spills that are under the firm's control, and only in states where the firm faces weaker scrutiny.     

农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿研究——基于洱海流域上游面源污染防控的视角

[目的]过量施用化肥导致水体富营养化是造成洱海流域上游面源污染的主要原因之一,调查分析农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿有助于了解其调整施肥结构的行为。当前研究忽视了农户减少化肥施用强度和采用有机肥的意愿间的替代性,未能开展联立研究。[方法]基于洱海流域上游397个水稻种植户的问卷调查数据,通过Bivariate-Probit模型对农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥两种意愿进行分析。[结果]年龄负向影响农户减少化肥量的意愿,农户对有机肥好处的认知正向影响其减少化肥量的意愿,农户参加农业社会化服务对其减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿均产生正向影响,相比之下,对农户采用有机肥意愿的促进作用更大。[结论]引导农户参加农业社会化服务以及加强宣传和培训,提高农户对有机肥作用的认知可能是加强其减少化肥用量和增加有机肥施用量意愿的有效途径。     

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

A systematic review of pharmacoeconomic guidelines

Objective: To review, summarize, and analyze both similarities and differences of pharmacoeconomic (PE) guidelines, to enable researchers to access their characteristics and the current state of PE guidelines; furthermore, to learn which methodological issues still remain contested and to promote the methodological development of PE guidelines.

Materials and methods: The authors performed a search for PE guidelines using PubMed, the Cochrane library database, and the websites of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research. Information of each guideline was extracted using a pre-designed extraction template, which included 22 aspects; the guidelines were summarized in the forms of charts, and their characteristics have been described.

Results: A total of 40 PE guidelines were studied. The most common methodological issues include the types of analysis, sources for effectiveness, use of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to measure outcomes, and use of incremental cost effectiveness ratios to present results. The majority of the guidelines preferred a cost utility analysis with outcomes expressed in terms of QALYs. Most of the guidelines preferred meta-analysis or meta-analysis of the randomized controlled trials, and required a systematic review of all evidence. Issues that varied most in the guidelines were the choice of the comparator, recommended costs to be included, methods related to indirect cost calculations, methods of sensitivity analysis, and discounting rate.

Conclusion: A comparison of these guidelines revealed that a number of differences exist among them in several key aspects, and some critical methodological issues still exist, for which no best solution is available. Furthermore, efforts need to be made to develop harmonious methods for the PE, and to improve the transferability of the outcomes of PE evaluations.     

Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Excessive borrowing of local governments in China sparked concerns that the debt may threaten the financial stability of the economy and ultimately...     

中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度分析：基于产权的视角

研究目标：借鉴马克思及西方产权理论主要思想，研究揭示中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度选择及经验。研究方法：基于产权理论对经济事实进行逻辑推演，并采用1978~2012年中国农村统计数据进行检验。研究发现：中国农村特色扶贫开发道路主要体现在农村资源（土地和人力）的产权制度改革上，由此形成的资源产权激励效应和正向扩散效应，正是中国农村人口发生大规模减贫的最重要原因及主要经验，并构成了中国特色社会主义制度的一部分。研究创新：本文基于产权理论的研究为减贫提供一个新的微观制度视角解释。研究价值：总结提炼中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的一般性理论经验，对今后减贫事业推进具有借鉴意义。