当代农民消费行为研究

本文运用现代消费理论对中国的农民消费行为进行研究,在对模型的数据进行平稳性检验的基础上,建立误差修正模型作为计量模型,认为农民面临的不确定性、农民消费的过度敏感性和农民消费行为的生命周期特征是影响农民消费行为的重要因素.影响农民消费行为的这些因素实际上反映了农村市场化进程的滞后,必须积极推动以市场化为核心的农村制度改革.     

某省火电机组理论上网标杆电价分析

2004年国家发改委在经营期电价政策基础上推出了标杆电价政策。2007--2008年,我国煤价不断上涨。为了解发电企业的经营状况,为价格管理部门合理核定新投产火电机组标杆上网电价提供参考,开展了某省火电机组理论上网标杆电价分析工作。在收集整理分析发电企业大量经营参数的基础上,得到经营期算法模型所需的计算参数,并对经营期算法参数进行了敏感性分析。     

某型末制导炮弹惯导段弹道对气动参数灵敏度分析

目前的灵敏度分析往往需要依赖于某种寻优算法,并要求目标函数能求取偏导数。而末制导炮弹左右舵片上的控制力是突变的,无法对其求取偏导数。为解决这个问题并保证灵敏度分析精度,本文提出用解析法与有限差分法法有机结合的方法对气动参数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明,该方法能很好的解决了该弹道灵敏度分析问题,且分析速度快、精度高。     

A taxonomy of prestige-seeking university students: strategic insights for higher education

This study explores the importance of psychographic characteristics as potential segmentation bases in the higher education sector. In particular, we develop a taxonomy of university students based on their achievement orientation and prestige sensitivity. The study analyses the survey data obtained from 948 respondents using cluster analyses and multiple analysis of variance (MANOVA), indicating interesting findings. Three distinct clusters emerge, namely Strivers, Modest Achievers and Prestige-seeking Innovators. Findings reveal that Prestige-seeking Innovators have a more positive attitude towards the university, whereas Strivers have the strongest sense of regret over their decision to enrol at their current university and would seize the opportunity to enrol in a more prestigious university. The taxonomy is highly relevant to marketers of higher education institutions as it gives insights into potential bases for segmentation, positioning and communication strategies targeting the specific characteristics of each segment.     

Budget impact model in moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris assessing effects of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate foam on per-patient standard of care costs

Aims: To develop a budget impact model (BIM) for estimating the financial impact of formulary adoption and uptake of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate (C/BD) foam (0.005%/0.064%) on the costs of biologics for treating moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris in a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million members.

Methods: This BIM incorporated epidemiologic data, market uptake assumptions, and drug utilization costs, simulating the treatment mix for patients who are candidates for biologics before (Scenario #1) and after (Scenario #2) the introduction of C/BD foam. Predicted outcomes were expressed in terms of the annual cost of treatment (COT) and the COT per member per month (PMPM).

Results: At year 1, C/BD foam had the lowest per-patient cost ($9,913) necessary to achieve a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI)-75 response compared with etanercept ($73,773), adalimumab ($92,871), infliximab ($34,048), ustekinumab ($83,975), secukinumab ($113,858), apremilast ($47,960), and ixekizumab ($62,707). Following addition of C/BD foam to the formulary, the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis would decrease by $36,112,572 (17.91%, from $201,621,219 to $165,508,647). The COT PMPM is expected to decrease by $3.00 (17.86%, from $16.80 to $13.80).

Limitations: Drug costs were based on Medi-Span reference pricing (January 21, 2016); differences in treatment costs for drug administration, laboratory monitoring, or adverse events were not accounted for. Potentially confounding were the definition of “moderate-to-severe” and the heterogeneous efficacy data. The per-patient cost for PASI-75 response at year 1 was estimated from short-term efficacy data for C/BD foam and apremilast only.

Conclusions: The introduction of C/BD foam is expected to decrease the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis treatable with biologics by $36,112,572 for a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million plan members, and to lower the COT PMPM by $3.00.     

地区产业发展综合成本评价与改进政策——以北京市高端制造业为例的研究

本文在总结目前国内外产业发展成本评价相关成果和地方政府相关改进政策需求的基础上,提出了对地区产业发展成本重点调整对象的确定方法和改进政策的制定思路:一是从综合成本分析入手,但更为注重不同成本因素的比较分析,即明确地区产业发展中哪些成本是短板;二是考察分析地区优势行业对不同成本因素的敏感性,即明确该行业对哪些成本较为敏感,从而确定影响产业发展的关键成本制约。根据这一思路,以北京市高端制造业为例,通过横向比较的方法具体测算出北京市综合成本的相对领先和落后环节,采用相关分析方法确定出高端制造业相对敏感的成本因素,从而明确了北京市高端制造业今后发展中需要解决的关键成本制约,并通过对北京市这些方面成本偏高的原因分析,提出了一些有针对性的政策建议。     

投资现金流敏感性研究述评

大量的经验文献支持了流动性假说,认为内部现金流是影响公司投资的一个重要因素。文中基于信息不对称下的融资约束理论与自由现金流的代理成本假说,回顾了关于投资现金流敏感性存在及其根源的国内外相关研究成果,梳理了该领域的研究脉络,并对主要结论进行了总结与评论。对文献研究发现,大多数研究均证实了投资与现金流之间具有较强的敏感性,但挖掘这种敏感性的根源却尚未达成一致的结论。尤其随着股权结构的引入,考虑到管理层内部持股的激励与堑壕效应、股权集中下控股股东的监督与侵占效应,该领域的研究纷繁复杂。但基于股权结构的研究是揭示这种敏感性的根源、探索非效率投资治理机制的有效途径。     

基于净现值指标的概率分析研究

研究了经济评价中的概率分析问题。在敏感性分析的基础上,对主要评价指标—项目净现值的概率分析引用了一种新的方法,实例表明该方法简单可行,为项目经济评价工作提供了新的思路。     

非线性优化问题与资源影子价格分析

首先,对条件极值问题中资源的影子价格进行了讨论,根据数学规划的Kuhn-Tucker条件,得出条件极值问题中的影子价格也表现为边际利润(拉格朗日乘子)。然后,讨论一般非线性规划问题中资源的影子价格和影子成本,并用证券投资组合优化模型为案例对收益率的边际成本(风险)进行分析。     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources for emergency water supply

The submitted paper proposes the possible use of integrated semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources. There are risks resulting from both natural and anthropogenic hazard sources. Activation of these types of hazard sources can cause damage to, or destruction of, particular hydrogeological structures and technological equipment of selected groundwater resources suitable for the emergency drinking water supply of the population. The process of risk assessment is based on the described register of hazards, including semi-quantitative assessment of the frequency with which the assessed sources of hazards are activated, the register of sensitivity together with the semi-quantitative sensitivity assessment of selected threatened elements of the assessed water resource and the determination of their criticality. The semi-quantitative risk assessment should become one of the important criteria for classifying groundwater resources which have been proposed for emergency water supply. The classification carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned principle can contribute to faster selection and effective use of groundwater resources, as well as to the enhancement of emergency and crisis planning systems when the public system is either damaged or destroyed.