Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes

The aim of this paper is to analyse the empirical fulfilment of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for the Australian dollar. In order to do so we have applied recently developed unit root tests that account for asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium [Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., Snell, A., 2003. “Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359–379] and fractional integration in the context of structural changes [Robinson, P.M., 1994. “Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1420–1437; Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. “Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 29, 163–185]. Although our results point to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis, we find that the degree of persistence of shocks to the Australian dollar decreases after the 1985 currency crisis.     

PPP、资本流动与地区税率

本文在传统的税收竞争模型框架下引入PPP模式的设定,分析了PPP模式影响资本流动和地区税率的理论机制。理论模型发现,PPP模式会从“直接效应”和“间接效应”两个渠道影响资本流动;社会资本参与率对地区税率呈现U型影响。当参与率较低时,以间接效应为主,参与率提高将导致地区税率水平下降;当参与率较高时,以直接效应为主,参与率上升将提高本地税率。本文进一步基于中国285个地级市2006—2013年的面板数据,对理论模型进行了验证。实证结果发现,中国城市间存在普遍的税收竞争行为;PPP引入后,社会资本参与率越高,地区吸引流入的资本越多,同时也更大程度地降低了税率对资本的边际影响;社会资本参与率对地区税率影响的U型曲线临界值约为55%。     

契约视角下的PPP项目承包商治理机制研究

本文从契约关系的视角研究了PPP项目承包商的治理机制问题,包括正式契约关系治理、剩余权利配置和关系契约治理,这3种治理机制分别对应着双方合作内容的不确定性程度。研究表明,正式契约适合对业主-承包商契约中确定性内容的治理,即利用明确的契约条款对双方合作关系中的行为风险或敲竹杠风险进行抑制。关系契约可以建立在事后双方可观察到的结果的基础上,适合对较不确定内容的治理。剩余权力的配置是一种弹性治理机制,适用于任何无法描述、无法判断或无法评价结果的不确定性内容,它通过对项目剩余索取权和剩余控制权的对称配置,提高承包商的主动合作性。     

PPP合同风险识别和分配

公私合作（PPP）模式是国际上运用于基础设施建设的最新模式,通过公私合作的形式,越来越多的私营部门开始投资、建设、管理甚至拥有基础设施。文章通过分析PPP项目成功的关键因素,识别PPP合同可能存在的风险因素,并提出合同风险的分配方法。     

基于WBS-RBS法的大型基础设施PPP项目全过程风险识别研究——以南宁教育园区西片区项目为例

现阶段,随着我国城市化进程的加快,大型基础设施项目建设资金的刚性需求日益增长,PPP模式在吸引社会优势资本、解决政府资金短缺问题、加快城市建设步伐、促进公共服务质量提升等方面发挥着积极作用,但大型基础设施PPP项目全过程的风险因素比较复杂.本文结合笔者多年工作经验,基于WBS-RBS法对大型基础设施PPP项目全过程的风...     

德国投资法的修订:基金公司参股PPP项目

在公私合作制已经逐步发展成为世界潮流的背景下,作为推行这项新型制度安排的"后发国家",德国在该领域内后来居上,成果颇丰。其中《公私合作制促进法》的出台就是一项具有标志性的成果。该法通过对德国投资法律的修订,初步改善了开放式基金参股公私合作制项目的法律前提,但在公共基础设施基金的问题上,德国立法者的态度则相对保守。分析借鉴这些经验,对正在建设和完善市场经济法律体系的中国具有重要的现实意义。     

Evidence that capital formation is overestimated in low- and middle-income countries in ICP 2011

Using the International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011’s cross-country data on input prices and project cost shares, I show that the ICP 2011 construction prices are substantially underestimated in the 143 low- and middle-income countries where these prices were estimated from input prices. As a consequence, the ICP 2011’s estimate of PPP-adjusted construction is overestimated on average by about 100% and gross fixed capital formation is overestimated by 25–30% in these countries. These nonrandom data errors are of sufficient magnitude to cause serious estimation bias in cross-country growth analyses.     

关于实施PPP模式的思考与建议

一个城市基础设施、医疗设施、教育设施、商业设施以及公共服务设施的好坏具有重要的意义。本文基于重庆这一大城市带直辖市的财政状况展开论述,文章试图通过对政府和民间资本合作探讨研究,达到吸收更多的社会资本参与PPP的目的,进而提升重庆的建设和人均生活水平。     

基于购买力平价学说的人民币均衡汇率

对购买力平价学说进行了重新审视,给出了购买力平价学说的动态表述,然后依据动态购买力平价理论对人民币均衡汇率进行探讨,结果表明2005年人民币兑美元的均衡汇率为$1=$6左右,在未来由于中国经济的快速增长,又将使人民币实际长期均衡汇率平均每年将升值2.44%,如果中国政府计划用10年时间使人民币市场汇率回归到长期均衡汇率,则人民币实际汇率平均每年又将升值2.3%,综合考虑上述两个因素的共同作用,则在未来10年内人民币实际汇率平均每年将升值4.7%左右,这样10年后人民币市场汇率才能回归到长期均衡汇率.     

Bond market co-movements,expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate

Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the European Monetary System (EMS) sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a correction mechanism to some long-run equilibrium. The purpose of the present study is to understand those dynamics, how the external value of the British sterling (GBP) relative to the US dollar (USD) evolved during the recent floating experiences, and what have been the driving forces. In this paper we assume the real exchange rate to be determined by forces relating to the goods and capital market in a general equilibrium framework. This entails testing the purchasing power parity (PPP) and the uncovered interest parity (UIP) together. In doing so, we model inflation expectations explicitly. Our findings have two important implications, both for monetary policy. First, we show that some of the observed changes in the bilateral real exchange rate cannot be solely attributed to changes in inflation rates, but, also to capital markets. Secondly, we find a weaker behavior of the US bond rate on international markets, possibly explained by the special US dollar status of World reserve currency.