城乡居民收入差距的动态演变:1988～2002年

中国城乡居民收入差距已经引起广泛关注。文章以住户调查数据为基础,利用泰尔指数分解、G.Fields分解、Blinder分解、分位回归分解等多种方法讨论了1988年、1995年和2002年“城乡”因素本身对城乡居民收入差距的贡献。这些分解结果表明我国的城乡差距较显著并在不断扩大;而且城乡差距更不利于农村中的低收入人群。     

The Productivity of US States since 1880

This study uses state-level variation in labor productivity levels at twenty-year intervals between 1880 and 1980 to examine the relative importance of institutional and geographical influences in explaining observed and persistent differences in standards of living over time and across regions. Focusing on fundamental rather than proximate influences, we find that both institutional characteristics and some physical geography characteristics account for a high proportion of the differences in state productivity levels: states with navigable waterways, a large minerals endowment, and no slaves in 1860, on average, had higher labor productivity levels throughout the sample period. However, we find little support for two other influences that have previously received attention—climate and latitude.     

包含制度因素的中国经济增长模型及实证分析

本文应用经济计量方法，测定制度因素、产业结构、劳动力、物力资本、知识资本等对中国经济增长的贡献和贡献率；并提出若干政策建议。     

Quantitative growth effects of subsidies in a search theoretic R&D model

Should government subsidize R&D and does it matter how these subsidies are allocated? We examine these questions in a dynamic model where R&D is described as sequential sampling from a distribution of new ideas. Successful discoveries affect future available resources and incentives for further R&D. Consequently, there may be under-investment in R&D. We study the effect of government interventions aimed at fostering growth through R&D. Calibrating the model with aggregate data from the Israeli business sector allows us to quantitatively compare two forms of support resembling those actually used to encourage R&D in the Israeli business sector: (i) an unrestricted subsidy that may be used at the recipients' discretion to finance R&D or other investments, (ii) a subsidy earmarked by the government for R&D activities only. While there is no theoretical way to determine which of the two subsidies will have a greater impact on search for new ideas and growth, we find that in the calibrated economy both subsidies have a significant but similar impact on the economy's output and TFP growth rates. Accordingly, in the case of the Israeli business sector, the incentives to conduct R&D were sufficiently strong, and no R&D-specific encouragement was needed. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that for economies characterized by other parameter values this result may not be true. Correspondence to: B. Bental     

房地产还原利率的构成与测算

从分析投资的风险补偿入手，提出了房地产还原利率的构成和测算公式，同时指出了构成房地产还原利率的银行利率应是复利计算方式下，相应年期的利率，然后探讨了房地产还原利率各构成部分的测算过程，并以中国房地产市场个人住房抵押贷款市场为例，给出了不同收益年限的房地产还原利率参考数据。     

农村税费改革中存在的问题及对策

农村税费改革后,农民的负担减轻了,但税费改革中新出现的一些问题严重影响了税费改革的进程和效果。我国农村税费改革存在着城乡之间、城区与非城区农民之间负担不均衡、农村义务教育投入严重不足、村级经费短缺等亟待解决的问题。为此,应采取加大农村政府机构改革的步伐和力度、加大对农村义务教育的投入、加大中央和省级两级财政转移支付力度等措施,进一步完善农村税费改革。     

我国收入贸易条件变动分析:1995～2004

收入贸易条件衡量的是一国在国际分工中获得的总体贸易利益的多少,在对我国贸易条件的变化进行分析时应当合理考虑收入贸易条件指数的变动。近年来我国的收入贸易条件指数呈现出持续改善的趋势,这表明外贸规模的扩大对国民经济发展做出了积极的贡献,仅仅根据商品贸易条件指数下降而得出我国贸易条件出现严重恶化的结论缺乏充分的根据。从国际经济竞争的现实背景来考虑,我国应当在保持收入贸易条件指数不恶化的情况下,继续大力推动出口贸易量较快地增长。     

收入因素与中国劣质品市场的部分逆向选择

基于Akerlof逆向选择模型,引入收入因素对其分析,通过说明收入因素影响消费偏好,进而改变消费者的无差异曲线,建立一个有限次交易后最终达到非零均衡的部分逆向选择的基本模型,并着重从这一侧面,即收入因素的影响,分析为什么在中国劣质品市场会长期存在。研究表明：购买偏好因收入增加而改变明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加人们的收入水平;购买偏好随收入增加改变不明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加外部干预。     

R＆D、R＆D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论，本文建立了一个将R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型。面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联。进一步的分析表明，R＆D与资本积累之间、R＆D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系。由此观知，R＆D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在。另一方面，尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R＆D溢出，证据表明R＆D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长。这种由R＆D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生。其实为世界经济增长的重要动力。     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.