公共管理新视角:化解和防范村级不良债务

村级债务形成的根源在于传统的行政管理模式。目前村级不良债务化解已经进入攻坚阶段,村本级经济组织有所作为的空间有限,镇级及其以上级政府扮演着重要角色。如何借鉴和运用新公共管理思想来防范新的不良债务,成为完善乡村治理、建设社会主义新农村的重要步骤。     

我国软预算约束的治理:理论与政策

软预算约束对我国经济的危害甚大,探讨我国预算软约束的治理意义重大.本文认为,应当从下述四个方面来治理我国经济中普遍存在的软预算约束问题:(1)推进国有银企的市场化改革,消除政府干预;(2)建立分散化的银行体系,加强对银行体系的有效监控;(3)实行财政分权,加强地区经济之间的竞争;(4)规范政府经济行为,严格财政金融纪律.     

An Analysis of SBA Loan Defaults by Maturity Structure

The financial intermediation literature on small business lending focuses on the determinants and costs to credit access. There is, however, little research examining the repayment behavior of small firms that actually receive loans. In this paper, we address this shortcoming in the literature by examining the default behavior of a sample of Small Business Administration 7(a) guaranteed loans with three distinct maturity structures. We employ a discrete-time hazard approach and show that SBA defaults are time-dependent and that the factors impacting default behavior, as well as its timing, are maturity specific. Specifically, we show the importance of loan maturity, seasoning, economic conditions, and other firm-specific factors in predicting the likelihood of SBA loan defaults. JEL classification: G21     

Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks

Although credit risk is an important factor that financial institutions must cope with, the determinants of bank problem loans have been little studied. Using panel data, we compare the determinants of problem loans of Spanish commercial and savings banks in the period 1985–1997, taking into account both macroeconomic and individual bank level variables. The GDP growth rate, firms, and family indebtedness, rapid past credit or branch expansion, inefficiency, portfolio composition, size, net interest margin, capital ratio, and market power are variables that explain credit risk. However, there are significant differences between commercial and savings banks, which confirm the relevance of the institutional form in the management of credit risk. Our findings raise important bank supervisory policy issues: the use of bank level variables as early warning indicators, the advantages of bank mergers from different regions, and the role of banking competition and ownership in determining credit risk.     

关系型借贷与中小企业融资的实证分析

本文通过一个计量经济学模型来检验企业贷款是否存在关系型借贷,结果发现:大型企业的确存在关系型借贷行为,且对企业的贷款量有显著性影响;中小企业关系型借贷对于贷款量的影响较小,且并不明显。原因可能是商业银行在审批中小企业贷款时,注重对“硬”信息的考察,同时中小企业并没有同某一家或几家商业银行保持长期关系。为改善中小企业融资状况,商业银行应建立起一套完整的信用记录体系,并实现信息共享,在贷款过程中增强对“软”信息的考察,积极培育一批资质较好的中小企业客户并建立密切的联系;中小企业则应该规范财务制度并增强财务信息的透明度,同银行建立长期关系。     

中国金融市场分割问题探源

银行的不良贷款问题得到了学术界的广泛关注,而金融体系中另一个潜在的缺陷,资本的低效率使用问题却没有引起足够的重视。金融理论告诉我们分割的金融市场是阻碍资本自由流动的原因, 本文的目的在于对我国金融市场分割的原因进行探讨。     

The Informational Efficiency of the Equity Market As Compared to the Syndicated Bank Loan Market

The loan market is a hybrid between a public and a private market, comprised of financial institutions with access to private information about borrowing firms. We test whether this is reflected in informationally efficient price formation in the loan market vis-a-vis the equity markets, and reject this private information hypothesis. We also reject a liquidity hypothesis which suggests that equity markets always lead loan markets, despite bank lenders' access to private information, because of greater liquidity in equity markets. We further test, and reject, an asymmetric price reaction hypothesis that states that loan returns are more sensitive to negative information whereas equity returns respond symmetrically to both positive and negative information. We find evidence most consistent with an integrated markets hypothesis that suggests that both the equity and syndicated bank loan markets are highly integrated such that information flows freely across markets. This is particularly true when the equity market makers are also loan syndicate members.      

Financial components of FDI and choice of capital structure: an analysis for 30 OECD countries

Even though the choice of capital structure depends on the three different financial components of foreign direct investment (FDI), previous research has regarded FDI as unidimensional rather than multidimensional. This study addresses new findings in the FDI area and investigates the relevant determinants of capital structure in 30 OECD countries from 2006 to 2014 within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Our primary findings reveal that each component has its own deterministic features driven by relevant policy variables and risks in the market. While an increase or decrease in equity capital shows the ability of the host country to attract new investments, the subsequent components are mostly used to adjust the equity capital investment exposure.     

New development: Can ‘public’ market-based solutions restore the banking system? The case of non-performing loans (NPLs)

The authors discuss how policy-makers could use new market-based solutions to dismantle NPLs. They examine viable solutions for NPLs and then study the Italian State Guarantee Scheme for NPL Securitization (GACS) to highlight how public actors could efficiently use public resources to solve the NPL problem.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.