On the role of verifiability and commitment in credence goods markets

A client has a problem, but does not know whether it is serious or minor. She consults an expert who can correctly diagnose and fix her problem. This paper characterizes the equilibrium pricing and recommendation strategies of an expert under the assumptions that i) the type of treatment is verifiable by the client, ii) the client has the option of rejecting any treatment recommendation, and iii) the expert is not liable for the outcome of the treatment. It is found, for any parameter configuration, that there exist equilibria in which the expert makes fraudulent recommendations resulting in inefficient treatment. The market outcome is compared with that under an alternative market environment in which the expert is liable for treatment outcome but the type of treatment performed is non-verifiable. It is shown that for some parameter configurations the equilibrium is more efficient when liability is in place than when the treatment is verifiable. These findings stand in sharp contrast to the received wisdom that the market outcome under verifiability of treatment is efficient while the market outcome under liability for outcome is not. Finally, this paper shows that the existence of some honest experts may induce more fraudulent behavior by opportunistic experts.     

中国寿险业增长中的人才贡献率研究

2011年以来,整个寿险业面临增速放缓的巨大压力,如何顺利实现转型发展战略成为关注的焦点。从人才建设角度,利用行业内具有影响力寿险公司作为代表,借鉴国际通用要素贡献率计算方法,对我国寿险业人才贡献率进行了初步测算,并从管理制度、培训体系和企业文化等方面提出了相关政策建议。     

浅谈高校绩效管理工作的问题及对策

介绍绩效管理在高校人力资源管理中的意义,对目前高校绩效管理工作中存在的问题进行总结分析,指出基于岗位分类的绩效管理体系的重要性,并提出构建基于岗位的绩效管理体系的若干建议,为高校管理部门提供参考。     

Sequential estimate for linear regression models with uncertain number of effective variables

As a result of novel data collection technologies, it is now common to encounter data in which the number of explanatory variables collected is large, while the number of variables that actually contribute to the model remains small. Thus, a method that can identify those variables with impact on the model without inferring other noneffective ones will make analysis much more efficient. Many methods are proposed to resolve the model selection problems under such circumstances, however, it is still unknown how large a sample size is sufficient to identify those “effective” variables. In this paper, we apply sequential sampling method so that the effective variables can be identified efficiently, and the sampling is stopped as soon as the “effective” variables are identified and their corresponding regression coefficients are estimated with satisfactory accuracy, which is new to sequential estimation. Both fixed and adaptive designs are considered. The asymptotic properties of estimates of the number of effective variables and their coefficients are established, and the proposed sequential estimation procedure is shown to be asymptotically optimal. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation method, and a diabetes data set is used as an example.     

Estimating most productive scale size with double frontiers data envelopment analysis

In this paper, most productive scale size (MPSS) for input and output mixes is measured from pessimistic point of view by using pessimistic data envelopment analysis (DEA). It is proved that the decision making unit (DMU) with the maximum pessimistic efficiency represents MPSS. However, the optimistic and the pessimistic measurements may identify different DMU as MPSS. To find the optimal DMU that represents MPSS, a double frontiers approach is developed by using the Hurwicz criterion to integrate both the information on the optimistic and the pessimistic frontiers. Numerical examples are provided to show the applications of the proposed methods in estimating MPSS.     

一种新的交叉效率保序方法研究——与纳什讨价还价交叉效率保序方法的比较

交叉效率评估方法中在引入新的决策单元(DMU)时,可能会使原先的DMU排序发生变化,很难保序,给决策带来困惑。通过建立一个线性规划模型,求解各DMU最优权重,使其计算的各DMU综合交叉效率值与原综合交叉效率值的差值最小,进而可消除引入新DMU时所产生的逆序现象。最后用算例说明了该方法有效,计算结果与纳什讨价还价交叉效率保序性模型进行比较,效率值差异更小,计算量更小,各DMU权重更加合理。     

发展是中国特色社会主义理论主题

中国特色社会主义理论体系的理论主题是发展。它的具体内容包括发展的战略目标、发展的中心任务、发展的领导力量和发展的全面内容,是构成这个主题中的分主题。这些分主题是:邓小平理论回答了发展的中心任务是以经济建设为中心,发展社会主义社会生产力;"三个代表"重要思想回答了发展的领导力量是中国共产党,必须坚持党的先进性;科学发展观回答了发展的全面内容,实现经济社会的全面进步和人的全面发展。这些不同的回答,构成了对"什么是社会主义,怎样建设社会主义"基本理论问题的总回答,即发展的总主题。     

Underlying and proximate driving causes of land use change in district Swat,Pakistan

Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, and land use and land cover changes have accelerated destructive processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The paper aims to (1) find proximate and underlying causes of land use and land cover changes; (2) analyse the drivers of change; and (3) reflect on the role of governance and policy.We used land use maps for the years 1968 and 2007 to highlight the extent and type of land use changes, and household surveys and expert interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data for detecting and analysing the drivers of change.Results of household surveys and expert interviews show that technological and environmental factors, accessibility and proximity to local markets, immense use of firewood, conflicting property rights and other institutional weaknesses, and over-grazing of alpine pastures were the main driving forces for agriculture expansion and deforestation.Given the present governance structure of forest management in Pakistan a multi-sectoral and multi-scale framework is required to conserve the Swat's natural landscape and associated ecosystem services. A carefully crafted reform programme is required to clarify and assign unambiguous property rights, provisions for communal management and market-based incentives, depending on the social, economic, and ecological characteristics of the different zones under consideration. Only with such policies in place can the current rapid rate of deforestation be avoided and sustainable natural resources use be ensured.     

金融危机背景下安徽省保投资适度增长问题研究

国际金融危机的冲击导致我国经济增长方式转型加速,经济结构调整形势严峻。安徽经济增长态势风险加剧,投资驱动型经济主导性再次凸显。在客观阐述国际金融危机对安徽省投资增长影响的前提下,深入分析了安徽省保投资增长的一系列政策措施及其社会效应。依据投资增长理论和经济增长均衡理论对进一步推进安徽省保投资适度增长提出了五点对策建议。     

Why do customers switch? More satiated or less satisfied

This study investigated whether restaurant customers switch to other restaurants due to satiation or diminished satisfaction. To achieve its objectives, this study extended well-known relationships among perceived quality, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions by including satiation and further examined the role of satiation on switching intentions. The results of this study showed that satiation was negatively associated with satisfaction but differed from diminished satisfaction. Further, the study results endorsed that satiation significantly influenced switching intentions, whereas satisfaction did not. This supports that customers switch to other restaurants not because they are less satisfied but because they are satiated. Regarding the relationship between perceived quality and satiation, service quality and food quality considerably reduced satiation levels, whereas physical surroundings were associated with an increase in satiation. In addition, satiation fully mediated the relationship between perceived quality and switching intentions, which emphasizes the importance of satiation in customer switching intentions. Findings and implications are provided in the main body of this paper.