结构性减税与扩张政府支出的宏观经济效应

为了深入研究不同类型财政政策对宏观经济的影响效应，本文构建纳入异质性家庭和细化财税工具的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，并着重模拟分析了不同类型财政政策冲击对居民消费、私人投资、通胀率以及总产出水平的动态影响效应。研究结果表明，不同类型财税工具对宏观经济的冲击效果存在显著差异，对于税收政策，劳动收入税减税能够有助于提升消费水平和消费需求，并调节和完善消费结构；而对于政府支出政策，转移支付规模的扩张通过刺激家庭消费，引导消费内需有效提升，从而带动经济增长方式由投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变，进而推动经济高质量发展。     

Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

Noise traders,firm-specific uncertainty and technical trading effectiveness

This is the first study to document evidence of technical trading effectiveness at firm level in the Chinese A-share market by investigating the relationship between excess profits of technical trading rules and firm-specific characteristics. Our results reveal that firms with higher excess profits from technical trading have more noise traders and higher institutional ownership and that those firms tend to be growth firms with lower liquidity and higher firm-specific uncertainty. Further analysis shows that the profitability of technical trading rules is unsustainable and the excess profits of the highest technical trading profit quintile portfolio disappear in the following year.     

Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within a unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates, and inflation with high-frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads, and weekly information on the Fed's balance sheet size. The latter set of high-frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared with a no-policy benchmark scenario.     

国有林场改革成效评价——职工获得感的统计分析

利用国有林场职工监测数据,基于物质维度和精神维度,从改革后职工自身的收益情况、职工对林场的整体评价、职工对林场管理方式的评价等方面,采用比较分析法和主成分分析法对国有林场改革职工获得感进行分析。研究结果表明:国有林场改革后职工获得感有所提升,改革进程与职工获得感呈强正相关性,改革促进了林场的可持续发展。但林场整体基础设施环境一般,场部相对较好,管护站点则较差。同时,在领导班子建设方面应注重自主、公平,仍需提高领导水平。     

Examination of Multiple Criteria in Health Technology Assessment for Application to Instrumental Analysis

Abstract:

The instrumental-ceremonial dichotomy is the analytical concern emphasized in instrumental analysis by original institutional economists for making welfare decisions. Paul Dale Bush and Wolfram Elsner explained that warranted criteria are required in order to conduct instrumental analysis. The concern for criteria led to an examination of multiple criteria decision analysis in health technology assessment in order to improve instrumental analysis. Health technology assessment (HTA) is one of the most active and extensive areas of analysis for policy making because medical technology changes very rapidly, expenditures on it are high and growing, it can harm as well as help, and there is intense personal concern by citizens who want wellness. Although HTA, especially with regard to the analysis of multiple criteria, has made considerable progress, its appraisal has been a disappointment. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to critique aspects of multiple criteria HTA in order to further develop instrumental analysis.     

Disappearing investment-cash flow sensitivities: Earnings have not become a worse proxy for cash flow

According to a recent conjecture in the literature, earnings have become a poorer proxy for cash flow from operations over time. We find that since 1988, when cash flow statements started to be consistently reported in Compustat, the cash effectiveness of earnings has actually increased for a large sample of US manufacturing firms. This occurs despite the introduction of fair value accounting and increasing accounting accruals during the last three decades. Also contrary to the conjecture, using more comprehensive measures of cash flow does not restore the investment-cash flow sensitivity, which continues to be around 0.05 in more recent periods.     

员工企业社会责任感知影响人力资源管理效能？—基于领导行为的协同中介

通过对贵州、广东和福建3个省80家企业1148名员工进行调研,基于员工对企业社会责任、领导行为感知对人力资源管理效能带来积极影响为研究问题构建了一个中介模型。企业社会责任在组织微观层面的内涵越来越得到企业的重视,实现了员工的企业社会责任由产出需求转向投资视角,成为企业满足员工工作需要和工作资源的参照标准体系,有利于提升企业人力资源管理效能。本文研究发现:企业社会责任分别从企业经济责任、法律责任、伦理责任和自行裁量责任影响人力资源管理效能;变革型领导和交易型领导对企业社会责任和人力资源管理效能具有协同中介作用。研究结论对于企业社会责任、领导行为和人力资源管理三者匹配具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Targeted advertising as a signal

This study presents a signaling model of advertising for horizontally differentiated products. The central ingredients of the model are two important characteristics of advertising—targeting, and noisy information content. The theory yields interesting results about the informational role of targeted advertising, and its consequences. First, targeting can itself serve as a signal on product attributes. Second, the effectiveness of targeting depends not only on firms knowing consumer preferences, but on consumers knowing that firms know this. This creates a distinction between strategies of targeting and personalization. Third, the effectiveness of targeting in equilibrium may (far) exceed the information contained directly in the targeted message. Fourth, information content is not, however, superfluous. Specifically, when ads contain no information, a targeting equilibrium does not exist. Together, these results reveal how advertising conveys information both through the content of the message and the firm’s choice of advertising medium. Furthermore, the model is robust to the various critiques of prior work on ads-as-signals: namely, that ad content is irrelevant, ad exposure is unnecessary, and the choice of ads as signals is inherently arbitrary.