A comparative analysis of funding schemes for public infrastructure spending in Quebec

The economic literature has been investigating the positive relation between public infrastructure spending and the productivity of the private sector since Munnell (1992). We have introduced this relationship into a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Quebec economy to investigate various funding schemes to scale up infrastructure spending in the province. We draw our assumptions from Estache et al. (2010) combined with sectoral elasticity parameters. We conduct a comparative analysis where the funding comes from debt alone, and debt with sales tax, income tax and business tax. Our main finding is that the income tax seems to produce the most positive effects and the businesses tax the most negative effects, though differences are small.     

生态税征收及其对经济生活的影响——基于一个动态可计算一般均衡（C6B）的分析

生态税以其“污染者支付”原则对环境保护起到一个柔性管理的作用。但真正意义上的生态税收及其制度体系的实践尚属空白。运用一个中国可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型--MCHUGE模型，分别在短期和长期的时间框架下，分别从能源强度、宏观经济以及产业结构三个方面考察生态税征收的影响。根据分析针对当前现状提出了生态税体系构建需坚持的六条原则。     

China's import duty drawback and VAT rebate policies: A general equilibrium analysis

China's duty drawbacks and value-added tax rebates play important roles in promoting exports. Simulations from a CGE model, characterized by a dual production (domestic sales and export processing) and dual import structure (imports used in export processing and for other purposes), confirm our theoretical results on China's exports that (a) such policies are generally export promoting; (b) a small part of the export expansion comes at the expense of a slight decline of the domestic activity through factor re-allocation and input substitution, whereas a larger portion of the expansion is attributed to cheaper access to foreign inputs; (c) export processors use more imported inputs and less domestic inputs; and (d) export intensive sectors are positively affected by these policies, whereas traditional agriculture sector is impacted adversely. These policies generate welfare gains for China.     

Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization

In this paper, we develop a theoretical method to quantify the importance of regulation and market structure on the success of service trade liberalization. For this purpose, we incorporate a single imperfectly competitive service sector that can take on various market structures into a standard computational general equilibrium model. We apply our framework to analyze the impact of partial telecom liberalization in Tunisia. We show that if the regulatory environment guarantees competition, Tunisia's welfare can improve up to 0.65%. If a cartel is formed between the domestic incumbent and foreign entrant, however, Tunisia's welfare can drop up to 0.25%. Our results thus call for Tunisia among other developing countries to step up its pro-competitive regulatory reforms while liberalizing its telecom sector.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下中国经济波动与减排效益研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型

2020年初,为防止新冠肺炎疫情蔓延,中国采取了严苛的防控措施。短期内的社会停摆对国内经济造成了巨大冲击;同时也抑制了碳排放量的增长。本文构建了一个包含碳排放模块的开放经济CGE模型,根据冲击来源设定不同情境,量化分析新冠肺炎疫情冲击造成的宏观经济、产业扩散以及CO₂减排效应。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情对中国GDP的影响约为-2.74%,从冲击路径看,供给侧冲击是新冠肺炎疫情的主导冲击路径,从冲击来源看,防控措施的影响远大于疾病本身的影响。在碳排放方面,虽然疫情冲击在一定程度上减少了碳排放量,但经济代价极大,具有短期性和不可持续性。最后,基于后疫情时代,为经济恢复与碳减排发展提出相关建议。     

温室效应对世界农业贸易的影响

气候对农业生产起着决定性作用。温室效应会使地球升温,从而引起全球变暖,将对农业产生深远影响。本研究使用一个CGE全球模型GTAP来预测全球变暖对农业贸易的影响,结果显示高纬度地区将获益,而低纬度地区将受损。北美小麦出口的重心将从美国转向加拿大,中国将取代东盟成为主要的稻米出口国。农业经济占GDP很大比重的发展中国家将受到更大的负面冲击。     

An Income Tax Increase to Fund Higher Education: A CGE Analysis for Chile

An increase in income taxes to fund education was one of the demands made by the social movements that emerged in Chile in 2011. Currently, the Chilean Congress is enacting a tax reform to raise money for higher education. This study aims to show the dynamic effects on the general equilibrium of the Chilean economy under two alternative approaches: a subsidy to lower the price of higher education (public and private), and greater spending on public higher education to reduce household payments for education. The social accounting matrix (SAM) used to calibrate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has 38 economic sectors, including the production structure of private education and public education. The study mainly concludes that a subsidy policy has significant advantages over increasing higher public education spending, regarding its effects on variables such as GDP, investment, and household incomes, while both policies have a similar effect on poverty and income distribution.     

Book Reviews

Book Reviewed:
Zoltan Bara and Laszlo Csaba, (eds.) Small Economies' Adjustment to Global Tendencies
Lutz Hoffmann, Peter Bofinger, Heiner Flassbeck and Alfred Steinherr Kazakhstan 1993-2000: Independent Advisors and the IMF
Michael Du Pont Foreign Direct Investment in Transitional Economies. A Case Study of China and Poland     

利率市场化、信贷歧视与中国经济发展——基于动态一般均衡模型的分析

通过引入"信贷系数"刻画了行业间可能存在的信贷歧视现象,拓展了中国动态一般均衡模型(Chinagem),模拟了中国利率市场化改革下整体利率水平提高、行业间利率歧视消除以及金融服务增效三条路径的动态经济效应.相对于基期而言,实际利率水平上升、行业间利率歧视消除将引起投资和实际GDP下降,但有利于优化行业资源配置,改善贸易条件;金融部门服务增效促进了投资和经济增长.此外,利率市场化有助于促进我国产业结构优化升级,推动国有企业改革.     

CGE模型与中国二元经济结构转化研究

运用CGE模型来模拟和探讨中国二元经济结构转化的正确路径、方法和政策措施,具有相当大的应用潜力和空间.在概述国内外二元经济理论研究的基础上,分析传统二元经济理论研究的缺失,介绍了CGE模型及其在定量研究上的优越性.