基于CGE模型定量分析国际贸易绿色壁垒对我国经济的影响——以发达国家对我国出口品征收碳关税为例

美、欧发达国家为促进本国绿色产业发展,以"碳关税"为突破口,在国际贸易中试图设置绿色壁垒。本文以剖析碳关税的潜在影响为例,建立了国际贸易壁垒对我国经济影响的系统分析框架,并利用动态可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)定量测算了各方面经济影响。结果表明,碳关税对我国实体经济的影响要小于对名义价格水平的影响;对高耗能产品出口抑制作用明显,而对高附加值产品出口影响很小,甚至会有刺激作用。     

高速铁路、公路建设的财政投资效益研究——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的分析

近年政府加大对高速铁路的建设和投资,以此来拉动经济的增长,此种财政对准公共品的投资是否有效值得关注。本文试图探究高铁与公路建设的经济效益问题,在一般均衡理论的框架下,构建了符合我国当前经济现状的CGE模型。经过模拟分析,发现高铁、公路投资的增加对经济体具有显著的正向作用,符合经济效益原则。相比更为完善的公路建设状况,铁路的投资具有更大的乘数效应,由此证实了当前政府大力推动高铁建设对经济的拉动作用,并对高铁投资的较高乘数效应做了经济学解释。     

Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal

A country’s economic dependence on its trade with various other countries is often expressed in terms of trade values and shares. A country’s vulnerability to economic coercion by the countries with which it trades is similarly expressed in such terms. Using the recent issues relating to Australia’s coal trade with China as an example, we propose a better framework for assessing vulnerability to coercive trade instruments. We argue that the capacity for a given export trade to fund real consumption is a superior indicator of economic vulnerability than the simple value of the underlying trade flow. Our framework takes account of trade diversion, foreign capital ownership, the terms of trade, resource mobility, and capital and production tax rates. Using this framework, we demonstrate that the damage from trade sanction is far less than might be expected from a simple focus on the value of the affected trade flow alone.     

碳税征收对我国宏观经济及碳减排影响的模拟研究

本文通过构建动态可计算一般均衡（DCGE）模型,模拟分析了2007-2020年期间不同碳税水平、不同能源使用效率、不同碳税使用方式对二氧化碳减排强度、二氧化碳排放强度边际变化率、部门产出及其价格、经济发展、社会福利等变量的影响。研究结论表明：随着碳税税率的增加,单位碳税二氧化碳排放强度边际变化率呈现逐渐减小的变化趋势,相比较而言,能源使用效率越高,单位碳税的二氧化碳排放强度边际变化率越大;在能源消费环节征收碳税,同时降低居民所得税税率,并保持政府财政收入中性,可以实现在减少二氧化碳排放强度的同时使得社会福利水平有所增加,从而可以实现碳税的“双重红利”效应。     

碳关税对世界经济和农产品贸易的影响研究

采用GTAP 8.0模拟欧盟、美国、日本分别和同时征收碳关税时对世界经济和产品贸易的影响。结果表明：碳关税将对世界经济均衡增长产生负面影响,受影响最大的是中国、金砖和东盟国家;碳关税将改变世界贸易结构和贸易利益格局,发达国家受益、发展中国家受损;碳关税将使世界农产品出口总额小幅下降,但对改善世界农产品贸易结构具有积极作用。     

多区域减排成本及经济影响比较分析

应用完全自主开发的全球多区域CGE模型(GAGE模型),对中国、印度、美国和欧盟四个区域的减排成本及经济影响进行了系统研究,从边际减排成本、GDP损失率、边际社会减排成本以及减排对部门总产出和出口的影响多个方面进行了比较分析.研究结果表明:欧盟的边际减排成本和GDP损失率显著高于其他三个区域,美国的边际减排成本约为中国的6倍,但其GDP损失率却与中国相当,其边际社会减排成本也只是略高于中国.生产部门中总产出影响最大的是能源部门,其次是高耗能的化工和钢铁部门,美国和欧盟的交通部门也受到较大冲击.     

Building a computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy

In this paper, we develop a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy allowing for a number of fiscal tools. We illustrate the methodology for modelling and accommodating the full range of direct and indirect taxes into the national general equilibrium model. In particular, we build a commodity tax matrix by commodity, source, user and tax type; and a production tax matrix by industry and tax type. We also put a special emphasis on the institutional sector accounts, incorporating a detailed system of equations. Our model provides a powerful tool for acquiring new insights in fiscal policy analysis, through the assessment of tailored tax reforms, which can consist of either changes in tax rates and tax bases for indirect and direct taxes. Finally, to validate the model we perform an equalizing Value-Added-Tax rates reform. We find that a budget-neutral uniform tax rate reform would be GDP and welfare improving. However, results across agents and sectors vary.     

Appraising the Economic Impact of the “Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals” Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model

The purpose of this study is to establish a tourism-CGE model to appraise the “opening up to Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals” policy on Taiwan. Using the model, this study suggests that the multiplier effect of the Mainland Chinese tourists’ expenditure in Taiwan is 1.378, which is slightly lower than that for tourists from Japan and Korea. With 1,000 (3,000) Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals per day, labour demand for about 48,000 (144,000) people would be created, along with 38,146 (114,463) million New Taiwan dollars volume of product, which would account for about 0.354% (1.063%) of annual GDP growth. The results also reveal that the policy would not necessarily contribute positively to every industry, and industrial restructuring might occur. Finally, some tourism policy recommendations are discussed.     

The Role of Inbound Tourism in the Singaporean Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Assessment

This study has employed recently published input–output (I–O) tables and tourism survey data and built a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to assess the role of inbound tourism in the Singaporean economy and thus to reveal its implications for tourism marketing. Compared with the I–O analysis, the CGE modeling takes into account the feedback effect in the economy and thus produces more reliable results. The modeling results show that inbound tourism contributes significantly to the Singaporean economy, but it competes mildly with non-tourism sectors for resources. Although tourism shopping accounts for about half of total tourism expenditure, its economic contribution is much less than that of the tourism service in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and tax revenue. This suggests that, in developing and marketing Singapore as a tourist destination, more efforts are needed to encourage tourism services demand.     

ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ARMINGTON IMPORT ELASTICITIES FOR A REGIONAL CGE MODEL OF THE ILLINOIS ECONOMY

One of the main concerns associated with the development and use of regional CGE models is the determination of key parameter values, particularly substitution and other price elasticities. A common problem is the lack of appropriate regional data for econometric estimation. Consequently, it is important to identify key parameters that are likely to be important in determining quantitative results and then to prioritize these for estimation where appropriate data are available. In this paper, the focus is on the estimation of the regional trade (import) substitution parameters, which tend to be important in analysis for regional economies (given their openness to trade). Here, commodity import elasticities for the Illinois economy are estimated and tested in a single region CGE model of the Illinois economy. In our econometric estimation, we apply a model that takes account of market size and distance in estimating the substitutability between commodities produced in Illinois and other US states.