浅析收入差距产生的不确定性及其对农民消费行为的影响

从农村居民收入差距扩大的角度对农村居民收入的不确定预期进行分析,通过基尼系数对农民消费倾向的影响模型分析,得出收入差距扩大是产生收入不确定性感受增强的一个原因,并且在市场经济体制改革后收入差距的增大对农村居民消费需求产生了负影响。提出相应建议以缩小收入差距,降低农村居民收入的不确定性,扩大农村消费。     

城乡居民消费行为比较研究

笔者以预防性储蓄理论为突破口,将城乡居民消费行为放在同一个理论框架中进行对比研究。结果发现,与城镇居民相比,农村居民的消费更为谨慎,对利率的变动相对不敏感,受不确定性因素影响较大;但消费惯性和制度变迁因素对城镇居民和农村居民消费的影响都不显著。     

Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI

This paper develops a real option model to explain the decision of enlarging a new foreign subsidiary by subsequent investment. The model is tested on a panel of 1148 subsidiaries in 22 host countries. The findings complement the traditional process model of firm internationalization. Rather than abiding by an incremental pattern of investment, internationalizing firms seem to keep foreign investment strategies flexible and build up their subsidiaries contingent upon the interaction of economic volatility and irreversibility of investment. However, the moderating effect of irreversibility on the relationship between uncertainty and investment may not hold for downside risks such as political instability.     

电网故障模型中贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论的应用

由于电网的复杂性和多变性,导致电网故障中存在信息不确定性问题,这就需要依靠贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论的自动生成方法。文章主要描述了这两种方法的原理,讨论了贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论在电网故障模型领域应用的可能方式和情况,并运用一些实例证明了这种方法的可靠性。     

新疆旅游饭店业战略聪明不稳定性博弈分析

新疆旅游饭店业战略联盟存在产权关系不清晰,驱动性不足,资本行政导向型扩张等问题。应选择合适的联盟伙伴,为联盟关系增加情感因素,理性对待利益分配。     

项目集成控制中不确定参数挣值法研究

针对传统挣值方法没有考虑计划指标不确定性的问题,文章将挣值法与统计学的一般理论相结合,将不确定信息的处理方法引入挣值分析,提出不确定性参数挣值法。该方法通过分析工序作业成本一进度的统计规律性,建立项目成本一进度计划的控制区间,根据项目实际执行情况得到更客观的评价信息,在拓展了挣值分析的功能的同时,改善了计划实施的可靠度。     

基于技术风险的研发联盟政府补贴政策研究

文章考虑研发存在技术风险,建立了合作研发博弈模型,研究了政府不同财政补贴方式（研发投入补贴和产品补贴）下的企业研发和生产策略。通过理论和数值仿真分析找出了不同补贴政策下的企业最优策略和相应的社会福利,并就政府的研发补贴政策提出了相应建议。研究表明,两种补贴政策均无法实现社会福利的最优解,研发难度较小的情况下宜采用研发投入补贴,研发难度较大的情况下应采用产品补贴,以此提高企业研发投入和社会福利。     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND CONDITIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA*

This paper analyses how systematic risk emanating from the macroeconomy is transmitted into stock market volatility using augmented autoregressive Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (AR‐GARCH) and vector autoregression (VAR) models. Also examined is whether the relationship between the two is bidirectional. By imposing dummies for the 1997‐1998 Asian and the 2007‐2009 sub‐prime financial crises, the study further analyses whether financial crises affect the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility. The findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences stock market volatility. Although volatilities in inflation, the gold price and the oil price seem to play a role, it is found that volatility in short‐term interest rates and exchange rates are the most important, suggesting that South African domestic financial markets are increasingly becoming interdependent. Finally, the results show that financial crises increase volatility in the stock market and in most macroeconomic variables, and, by so doing, strengthen the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the stock market.     

Assessment of the Partnership Quality between Travel Agencies and Health Care Organizations on the International Medical Tourism Market in Taiwan

The medical tourism literature lacks insight into related issues of these types of partnerships. Those that integrate multiple perspectives into one research framework are especially rare. This study evaluated and compared the influence of external environment uncertainty, trust, and resource dependence perspectives on the quality of interorganizational partnerships in the international medical tourism market and quantified these elements using external environment uncertainty assessment on the international medical tourism development. The research sample was based on a survey from 161 travel agency managers in Taiwan. This study found that external environment uncertainty has direct negative impact on trust and resource dependence has a positive influence on interorganizational partnership. Moreover, trust has a significant impact on partnership quality while resource dependence does not. Therefore, medical travel agents should extend their network of trustworthy health care organization partners in order to improve performance, decrease their self-risk, collect information, and avoid missed opportunities.     

A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system with zero tailpipe emissions. This requires the construction of a network of fuel stations, a long-term, expensive and highly uncertain investment. We contribute to the literature by including a knock-out barrier option in an n-fold compound real option model to take account of immediate project failure in a multi-stage sequential investment project. Our model allows to explicitly incorporate the default possibility of large-scale energy infrastructure projects. In our case study of hydrogen infrastructure development, we find that even for the least conservative valuation method no profitable business case can be made for the development of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation mode. However, we do provide some suggestive scenarios that plausible tax schedules can be designed to overcome the starting problems for hydrogen infrastructure development.