铁路货运发展现代物流的模式探讨

随着现代物流业的快速发展,铁路货运向现代物流转变和发展已经成为一种必然的趋势。文中在分析铁路货运向现代物流转变的必然性和优势条件的基础上,提出了铁路货运发展现代物流的两种模式,即综合物流发展模式和专业运输发展模式。这两种模式都是铁路货运向现代物流转变的可行途径,只是前者一般适合于较大规模的货运场站,而后者更适合于较小规模的货运场站。     

铁路货运场站拓展物流服务功能的探讨

铁路货运场站作为物流系统重要的结点,能拓展物流服务功能,提升物流增值效用,对铁路发展具有重要的意义。基于此,分析了铁路货运与物流的相互关系,提出了铁路货运场站拓展物流服务功能的发展思路,并就铁路货运场站可拓展的物流增值服务功能、物流综合服务、可增强的现有服务以及拓展物流服务功能的途径等进行了深入的探讨。     

基于GNNM(1.1)模型的货运量及货运周转量预测

通过各种算法对货运指标进行有效预测,对于把握未来货运发展趋势有着非常重要的作用。文章将灰色预测与神经网络预测方法进行了有机结合,建立了一个基于灰色神经网络的预测(GNNM)模型。通过模型对货运量及货运周转量进行了预测,得到了较满意的结果,表明了模型具有较高的可靠性及实用性。     

The geography of air freight: connections to U.S. metropolitan economies

Despite the rapid growth of air freight shipments, much of the existing literature on the geography of air transportation has paid more attention to passenger travel than air freight. The purpose of this paper is to elevate our understanding of air freight by determining which specific variables most influence and shape the geographic distribution of air freight by metropolitan area using stepwise regression analysis. The empirical results suggest a regression model of five independent variables was the most parsimonious solution where the final model accounted for 71.1% of the variation in air freight shipments by metropolitan area (MA). The most important predictor was the traffic shadow effect, where less populated MAs under the traffic shadow of larger MAs tended to generate lower levels of freight. The model also suggested that other key predictors included the employment market share in transportation-shipping-logistics industries, per capita personal income, the number of medical diagnostic and supplier establishments, and above average wages in high technology. Overall, metropolitan markets with diverse and efficient ground support systems, freight forwarders and other transportation services, a more affluent population, an intense agglomeration of medical laboratories and related suppliers, and a well paid skilled workforce engaged in computer systems design and electronic product manufacturing are more likely to ship freight by air.     

In-transit perishable product inspection

We determine the value of monitoring perishable freight in-transit for a single vehicle traveling from an origin to a destination. We develop a computationally practical approach for determining the optimal expected cost function and an optimal policy, based on an infinite horizon partially observed Markov decision process model. Structural properties of the optimal expected cost function and optimal policy are determined. These results can lend insight when deciding whether to acquire the capacity to monitor freight status in transit and what actions to take, based on the data from the in-transit monitoring, that optimally increase expected supply chain productivity.     

货运量回归预测工具EXCEL和SPSS结合应用研究

对货运量预测工具EXCEL和SPSS各自的优缺点进行了分析，在此基础上建议将两种预测工具相结合，提出如何．陕速、准确得出预测值并作出预测图表的方法和步骤，最后以某市社会货运量统计为样本，进行实例说明。     

竞争性综合运输中公路货运定价的研究

利用双层优化方法,将公路货运企业的经营目标函数和客户的选择函数统一考虑,分析了在客户选择最优基础上的公路货运定价问题,通过构建模型,求解得到货运价格。该价格是满足消费者福利剩余最大化的价格,有利于社会资源的优化配置和公路货运企业、综合运输市场的发展。     

论铁路货运向现代物流转变

随着我国高铁的快速建设，以及铁路货运机制的不断改革，铁路货运发展现代物流存在非常好的机遇。铁路运输为了提高市场份额，适应市场需求，应采取众多改革方针。通过运用SWOT方法，对我国铁路货运发展现代物流进行了分析，指出了其存在的优势、劣势、机遇与威胁，并提出铁路货运在发挥自身优势、优化货运组织的同时，要充分利用路网资源，进一步加强铁路货运改革，优化两端运输组织，完善“门到门”物流运输，积极拓展铁路货运增值业务，大力发展协同运输，为铁路货运发展现代物流提供有力保证。     

Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.     

负运价的财务原因与管理策略——中国海运业负运价案引发的思考

在国际海运市场上,由于竞争激烈,海运运价日益下滑。海运企业为了揽活,以不收钱甚至倒贴钱的方式,将货主的货物送达目的港口,出现了零运价和负运价现象。文章提出,负运价其实是中国海运业的一种高风险财务策略,负运价并不等于负的运费收入,负运价的实施只是削减了利润,并不意味着海运企业必然亏损,甚至有时还有利可图。负运价将导致市场无序化,带来海运企业更高程度的经营风险。因此,必须在宏观上加强法律法规约束,树立共赢的财务理念,追求卓越的服务质量,开创新的市场空间,确立战略管理思维,并实行相对谨慎的财务管理策略,以加强对海运业的管理,促进海运业稳健发展。