入世对中国农业发展影响的事后评估——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

基于GTAP模型,设计了相应的模拟方案,事后模拟评估了不入世对中国农业发展带来的影响。结果显示:如果中国当初未加入WTO,中国的国民经济发展水平和福利水平将显著下降,而对世界其他地区的国民经济发展水平和福利水平影响很小;中国大多数农产品的生产、消费和价格都会下降;在分类农产品贸易上,奶类、油料和油脂这些中国具有比较劣势的农产品进口量将大幅度减少,而蔬菜水果和水产品这些中国具有较强国际竞争力的农产品出口量将明显萎缩。     

自由贸易区对我国棉花产业的总体影响—基于GTAP的一般均衡分析

本文以粮、棉、油作为敏感产品采取不同的关税削减方案,模拟中国与周边地区建立自由贸易区对我国棉花生产、进出口和棉农就业的影响.研究认为,自由贸易区所带来的双边贸易的进一步开放将对我国棉花等大宗农产品生产产生一定的负面影响.为此,在自由贸易区谈判中要充分重视对棉花等涉及国民经济安全的大宗农产品的保护,加大国内财政支持力度,建立和完善贸易争端解决机制,探索建立产业损害补偿和贸易结构调整援助制度.     

Accounting for value added embodied in trade and consumption: an intercomparison of global multiregional input–output databases

Global multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables constitute detailed accounts of the economic activity worldwide. Global trade models based on MRIO tables are being used to calculate important economic and environmental indicators such as value added in trade or the carbon footprint of nations. Such applications are highly relevant in international trade and climate policy negotiations, and consequently MRIO model results are being scrutinized for their accuracy and reproducibility. We investigate the variation in results from three major MRIO databases by comparing underlying economic data and territorial and consumption-based results across databases. Although global value-added accounts were similar across databases, we find some significant differences at the level of individual countries and sectors. Model disagreement was relatively stable from the territorial to the consumption perspective. Pairwise matrix comparison statistics indicated that the Global Trade Analysis Project and World Input-Output Database MRIO tables were overall more similar to each other than either was to the Eora database.     

基于GTAP模型对多哈回合非农产品关税减让可能效应的一般均衡分析

非农产品市场准入谈判是多哈回合重点议题之一,且至今仍未达成最终成果。2008年7月举行的世界贸易组织小型部长级会议曾在多哈回合非农产品市场准入问题上,各方曾根据"主席案文"①,就瑞士公式系数达成共识,按约定的系数和灵活性安排,进行关税减让。非农产品关税减让将对中国经济和对外贸易产生重要影响。本文将采用目前国际通用的全球贸易分析项目(GTAP模型),来模拟WTO非农产品关税减让对WTO主要成员方,尤其是中国,宏观和产业经济的影响。     

贸易便利化提高的国际经贸影响研究——基于“一带一路”六大经济走廊的实证分析

基于GTAP模型以六大经济走廊建设为例分析了"一带一路"倡议下提高贸易便利化的国际经贸影响。研究发现:一是"一带一路"六大经济走廊建设增加了贸易便利化提高国家的GDP,走廊沿线国家的GDP增加百分比均大于中国,其中中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊增加百分比最多;二是"一带一路"六大经济走廊建设对中国和走廊沿线国家均有福利改善作用,改善大小几乎相同,其中中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊福利增加最大;三是"一带一路"六大经济走廊建设增加了贸易便利化提高国家的出口总量,除了新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊之外,其他经济走廊沿线国家的出口总量增加百分比显著高于中国。     

中韩FTA建立对农产品贸易的影响——基于GTAP模型的研究

运用GTAP模型,分三种方案对中韩建立自由贸易区对两国农产品贸易的影响进行一般均衡模拟研究,研究结果表明,如果韩国取消对华农产品进口关税,韩国农产品的价格、产出及贸易量都将受到不同程度的影响,且影响较为显著;但中国农产品部门所受影响相对较小,对世界其余经济体的影响则几乎可以忽略。此外,农产品市场开放会不可避免的对韩国农业造成冲击,因此,双方应当充分理解韩国农产品的敏感性,调整FTA谈判战略,逐步开放双方农产品市场。     

全球金融危机爆发的原因及其对中国经济的影响

美国次贷危机引发了肆掠全球的金融危机,其直接原因是美国国内的产业、金融政策错误,以及华尔街的贪婪与金融监管失误,而深层次原因是全球经济失衡与技术创新的周期性。本文应用时间序列模型验证了美国经济衰退对中国对美出口的显著影响,使用GTAP模型估算了全球经济衰退对中国经济的影响,结果显示:纺织、石化、电子等中国主要出口行业产出增长将进一步大幅下降。建议我国通过调整收入分配结构、扶持民营企业发展以扩大内需,并走创新发展道路,以应对危机下世界经济衰退的挑战。     

Output and input bias effects of U.S. direct payments

This study examines the national effect of U.S. direct payments on the extent and direction of biased technical change on U.S. agriculture. We also assess the economic significance of the estimated bias effects for economic policy modeling endeavors involving a reduction of domestic support payments. A two outputs (livestock and crops) and four inputs (labor, capital, land, and material) translog cost function was estimated from national time series (1948–2011) data. Results indicate that payments do not induce output‐biased technical change. We do find evidence of Hicksian bias that is land using and material input saving attributable to support payments. Global computable general equilibrium simulations suggest that price and output effects of discontinuing direct payments are 1/4 to 1/3 the size once the bias effects are incorporated.     

RCEP关税减让对各成员国的经济影响分析

大幅度削减成员国间关税是RCEP协议的核心内容，为了揭示RCEP成员国间关税减让的经济影响，文章首先分析了RCEP成员国间贸易现状、产品结构、进口关税和贸易竞争力，然后，运用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税减让对各成员国宏观经济和产出的影响，得到结论如下：（1）RCEP关税减让可以缓解中美贸易摩擦对于中国经济的不利影响；（2）就短期而言，RCEP成员国间关税减让可以提高中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和消费水平等宏观经济效益，同时，还可以提高中国、韩国、澳大利亚、东盟的总产出水平；（3）就长期来说，实施零关税可能显著提升RCEP大多数成员国的宏观经济效益和产出水平。     

Food Price Pass‐Through and the Role of Domestic Margin Services

The recent volatility in international agricultural markets has drawn attention to the impact of rising international agricultural prices and the induced price‐insulating measures on consumer food prices. Analyses based on simulation models on this topic typically ignore the role of domestic margin services. We extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to allow for variations in the share of domestic margin services in consumed food across countries. This approach enables us to differentiate consumer prices from producer prices. Following the extension, the results show that domestic margin services reduce the consumer food price volatility for all countries, especially in high‐income countries, where the share of domestic margin services in final food consumption is higher. The effect of price‐insulating border policies is also reduced in the extended model. We find that our extension of the GTAP model greatly improves simulations of the 2007 surge in international agricultural prices. We validate our extension of the GTAP model by showing that the econometrically estimated food price pass‐through is decreasing with income and thus, is smaller in high‐income countries.