粤港澳大湾区创新生态系统内部耦合时空演化及空间收敛分析

在构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下，高效协同的区域创新体系有助于将粤港澳大湾区三地建设成为具有全球影响力的科技创新中心。通过构建创新生态系统综合评价指标体系，采用耦合协调模型和空间计量模型，实证检验大湾区10个城市2007-2019年创新生态系统内部耦合协调水平、时空跃迁特征以及收敛性。研究发现，大湾区整体及各城市耦合协调度呈上升趋势，基本实现从失调衰退区到协调过渡区的转化，具体可划分为4个等级层次；大湾区创新生态系统协调耦合度存在显著的绝对β与条件β收敛趋势，即最终收敛于同一稳态水平，且城市间差距逐渐缩小。其中，经济发展水平、对外交流水平、人力资本水平对创新生态系统协调耦合度起显著正向作用。     

中国影子银行发展趋势与展望

在多角度界定影子银行的基础上,总结中国影子银行的主要特征,即处于初期发展阶段、杠杆率相对较低、主体独立性低、金融创新活跃地带。从欧美国家影子银行发展实践来看,中国影子银行是金融体制过渡性的产物,代表了未来金融创新的方向,其发展趋势主要包括：业务发展：由银行表外业务向资产证券化业务转变;运作模式：由＂一对一＂对接向＂多对多＂对接转变;融资结构：由非标债权融资向标准化债权融资转变;体系构成：由商业银行为主向非银行金融机构为主转变;监管动向：由机构监管向机构监管与功能监管相结合转变。     

Within the triangle of healthcare legacies: comparing the performance of South-Eastern European health systems

Objective: Inter-regional comparison of health-reform outcomes in south-eastern Europe (SEE).

Methods: Macro-indicators were obtained from the WHO Health for All Database. Inter-regional comparison among post-Semashko, former Yugoslavia, and prior-1989-free-market SEE economies was conducted.

Results: United Nations Development Program Human Development Index growth was strongest among prior-free-market SEE, followed by former Yugoslavia and post-Semashko. Policy cuts to hospital beds and nursing-staff capacities were highest in post-Semashko. Physician density increased the most in prior-free-market SEE. Length of hospital stay was reduced in most countries; frequency of outpatient visits and inpatient discharges doubled in prior-free-market SEE. Fertility rates fell for one third in Post-Semashko and prior-free-market SEE. Crude death rates slightly decreased in prior-free-market-SEE and post-Semashko, while growing in the former Yugoslavia region. Life expectancy increased by 4 years on average in all regions; prior-free-market SEE achieving the highest longevity. Childhood and maternal mortality rates decreased throughout SEE, while post-Semashko countries recorded the most progress.

Conclusions: Significant differences in healthcare resources and outcomes were observed among three historical health-policy legacies in south-eastern Europe. These different routes towards common goals created a golden opportunity for these economies to learn from each other.     

A Fuzzy Logic based Trend Impact Analysis method

All Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) algorithms in literature conduct the analysis based on direct estimates provided by experts for the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as an input to the algorithm. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using Fuzzy Logic. We postulate that in some cases it is better not to estimate the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event directly; but rather estimate it indirectly via its attributes, using Fuzzy Logic. The core idea of the paper is to customize the generic process of reasoning with Fuzzy Logic by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes, especially when they reach certain threshold values.     

协同知识管理研究进展

近年来,协同知识管理是一个新的、值得关注的研究方向,为了加深对协同知识管理的梳理和便于今后对其进行深入研究,在试图对国内外协同知识管理相关研究作比较全面分析的基础上,对协同知识管理未来的发展趋势作了进一步的探讨,指出需要在隐显性知识协同管理模式、协同知识创新资源体系、知识管理的协同效应、知识融合与协同决策等方面作深入研究。     

美国对中国反倾销的变化趋势、原因及对策分析

自20世纪90年代以来,中国的资本密集型出口产品逐步替代劳动密集型出口产品成为美国的主要反倾销对象。美国对中国反倾销出现的这一变化趋势,一方面是由于中国劳动力价格上升,劳动密集型产品对美出口比例降低,另一方面是由于中国的资本密集型产品对美出口迅速增加对美国相关产业形成竞争压力。为了有效的应对美国的反倾销,无论是相关出口企业,还是国家政府部门都应给予足够重视,应坚持统一对外的方针,抵制低价出口行为;实施市场多元化战略;设立专门应对反倾销的机构,共同做好反倾销的预防工作和应对措施。     

浅析我国人力资源方面存在的问题及解决对策

人力资源是最重要的生产要素。当前我国人力资源存在着总体素质较低、教育投入不足、结构不合理、老龄化趋势严重、地区差距较大等问题,只有从加大教育投入,完善教育立法,加强中外教育、两岸三地教育合作等才能全面提高人力资源总体水平,也才能为未来的经济发展奠定坚实的基础,从而使中国人力资源开发朝着更加良性、合理的方向发展。     

中国生态城建设的现状特征与发展态势——中国百个生态城调查分析

我国近些年生态城建设呈现出数量多、规模大、发展速度快的特征,目前全国已出现一百多个大小不等的新建生态城项目。但这些生态城是否都是真正意义上的生态城受到学者和公众的质疑,因此迫切需要全面了解当前我国生态城建设的基本情况和特点,总结其发展态势。本研究针对我国生态城市建设实践,分析其类型、分布特征、产业特征和存在的问题,以期为制定生态城市发展政策提供依据。     

Trend forecasting for stability in supply chains

This paper revisits the use of trend forecasting to determine ordering policy in supply chains by viewing it as a part of the control process for making the supply responsive to demand. Trend forecasting is often used to assess demand — a tracked variable in the control context, which drives supply — a tracking variable. Used in this way, it is often observed to increase instability creating the so-called bullwhip effect. Trend is used on the other hand with reliability to increase stability in controller control, but with the difference that a trend of a tracking variable is used to drive correction. While both processes involve use of trend to determine policies for achieving reliable performance, the outcomes of the former are variable while those of the later can create improvement in control with certainty. The similarities and differences between the two processes are discussed and guidelines developed for applying trend forecasting to enhance stability in supply chains.     

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.