劳动异质情况下的产业结构偏离及其影响因素分析——基于2006～2013年全国产业行业数据

本文充分考虑劳动异质性，利用产业人力资本结构，重新核算三次产业结构偏离度，发现第一产业和第三产业结构偏离程度均被高估，第二产业结构偏离被低估，进而指出“民工荒”、大学生就业难等现象产生的原因是第一产业可转出人力资本减少，第二产业需求旺盛，而第三产业由于发展不足陷入低水平均衡状态。最后通过系统的影响因素分析发现，解决我国结构偏离和就业问题的重点在于优化需求结构、合理规划产业发展路径以及全面推进城镇化和市场化进程，关键更在于释放农村消费市场巨大潜力和全面加快第三产业发展。     

我国新能源汽车产业破坏性创新的政策支持研究

提高新能源汽车产业创新水平、将新能源汽车产业置于国民经济战略性新兴产业的地位予以支持已成为世界大国博弈的重要命题.文章将破坏性创新理论用于指导我国的新能源汽车产业政策,在公共科技政策分析的基本政策工具框架下,采用内容分析法分析了2009年至今我国新能源汽车产业创新的政策支持体系;对特斯拉汽车成功进行破坏性创新的案例及对我国的启示作了实证研究,进而提出我国新能源汽车产业破坏性创新的政策建议.     

我国行政审批制度改革的力场分析与突破策略

行政审批是政府对市场和社会资源进行配置的前置性管理手段。为了与社会主义市场经济体制相匹配,我国在行政审批改革中设立了减少审批项目、规范审批行为、实现制度创新和推进依法行政的改革目标。但根据力场分析理论,在行政审批制度改革过程中由于对相关主体利益的重新分配造成改革力场中存在驱动力和制约力。通过研究改革中决策者、执行者、受规制者和消费者的利益取向,可以获知驱动力和制约力的强弱,并推算出制度变迁的方向。为了使行政审批制度改革能够顺利推行,还需进一步分析制约力存在的方式并寻求相应的突破策略。     

GIS as a tool for selection of sample areas in a travel behaviour survey

Whilst Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are now used more commonly in transport research and modelling, GIS techniques were used in this study to select similar sample areas (in terms of geography and census attributes) for data collection. For this purpose, a GIS mapping system for Tyne and Wear, UK, was built. The system included topographic maps of the area, boundary maps of Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA), and aggregated census statistics datasets for LSOAs. Criteria relating to census attributes and the nature of transport were employed to identify ‘hotspots’ by GIS enquiry to provide suitably matching areas, which then formed the basis of the sampling frame.The research project was concerned with commuters’ travel choices and so the study needed to identify commuters. In this case-study context, it is not possible to select fully homogeneous areas, so the GIS ‘hotspots’ approach allowed the identification of areas where there were a high concentration of commuters with multiple alternatives for travel to work. A pilot study showed that the GIS origin-based approach was good in collecting a balanced sample, as compared to an employment-based destination survey. This paper explores the benefits and costs of these origin- and destination-based approaches. In the origin-based home sample, households with paper-based surveys were targeted after identification by GIS. This origin approach requires more data preparation compared to the alternative of an employer-based, destination-based sample that could use online survey methodologies.The paper concludes by identifying GIS as an important tool in selecting a sample area for data collection using multiple criteria, but argues that plans for data collection need to be flexibly constructed to overcome unexpected challenges. Although this paper focuses on a transport research case study, the methodology presented can be applied to survey design and selection of sample areas in other disciplines.     

An appraisal of the CORINE land cover database in airport catchment area analysis using a GIS approach

This paper presents a free available dataset, the CORINE land cover that helps dealing with the biases caused by pre-defined and heterogeneous census district boundaries in airport catchment area analysis in Europe. Using this dataset and a conventional GIS software it is possible to measure the size of the population within catchment areas at the same spatial level for all EU airports, allowing for consistent comparisons among airports. To illustrate the potential of the CORINE/GIS approach, the size of the population in the catchment areas of all European airports was determined. The empirical exercise has an aggregate perspective, but this database presents many other possibilities of analysis to perform in a case-by-case basis.     

The role of the third party in trust repair process

To examine the role of third parties in trust repair processes, this study uses a policy-capturing design. The third party's tactics (persuasion, guarantee) and characteristics (relational closeness between third party and victim, power of third party) relate strongly and positively to trust repair and specifically to a victim's willingness to reconcile with a trust violator, which ultimately leads to continuance of collaboration intentions. In addition, persuasion is more effective than guarantees in this process. The effects of tactics and characteristics also interact to influence the outcomes. This article concludes with some practical implications of these findings and recommendations for future research.     

栀子花期低温冷害风险区划研究——以湖北蕲春为例

[目的]确定栀子花期低温冷害指标,研究栀子花期低温冷害风险区划方法,以蕲春县为例开展栀子花期低温冷害风险区划,为蕲春栀子种植提供参考。[方法]利用湖北省蕲春县1990~2010年栀子产量资料及同期气象观测资料,通过统计分析冷害持续日数、冷害期间日平均气温20℃累积危害积温、极端最低气温、降温幅度等指标与栀子产量的关系,建立了栀子花期低温冷害损失模型。以20℃累积危害积温为指标,以损失率5%、10%、30%为阈值,确定了栀子花期轻度、中度、重度、严重冷害分级标准,然后利用蕲春县1:25万数字高程模型及蕲春县逐日平均气温、最低气温观测资料,推算网格点1959~2010年5月1~20日逐日最低气温、平均气温,构建冷害风险指数,计算各网格点的冷害风险指数,进行了蕲春县栀子冷害气候风险区划。[结果]蕲春县西部低山区栀子花期冷害风险较小,适宜栀子种植;400m以上的山区冻害风险大,种植栀子只开花不结果。[结论]栀子花期低温冷害风险区划结果在蕲春栀子种植基地规划中有一定参考意义。     

Risk shifting in the US banking system: An empirical analysis

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on risk shifting. It proposes a method to find out whether risk shifting is present in the banking industry and, if so, what type. The type of risk shifting depends on the group of debt holders to whom risk is shifted. We apply this method to the US banking sector in 1998–2011. To study the relationship between risk shifting and the 2008 crisis, the sample is also split into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. Our results suggest that the same type of risk shifting is present in the entire sample and in the pre-crisis and crisis subsamples. We find no evidence of risk shifting after the crisis. Furthermore, holding capital buffers seems to disincentivize risk shifting. This finding appears to provide support for the conservative buffer included in Basel III.     

Modeling regional economic dynamics: Spatial dependence,spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities

Spatial modeling of economic phenomena requires the adoption of complex econometric tools, which allow us to deal with important methodological issues, such as spatial dependence, spatial unobserved heterogeneity and nonlinearities. In this paper we describe some recently developed econometric approaches (i.e. Spatial Autoregressive Semiparametric Geoadditive Models), which address the three issues simultaneously. We also illustrate the relative performance of these methods with an application to the case of house prices in the Lucas County.     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法，以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象，从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明，在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中，地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性，与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动，获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时，中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。