大数据时代完善信息化统计工作的思考

随着大数据资源的急剧增加和数据挖掘技术的日益成熟,为用户提供的服务正在从商务领域向公共领域渗透,面对"大数据"的汹涌来袭,信息化统计工作只有适应大数据时代的变化和要求,通过有效利用客观存在的海量数据,尤其需要率先在公共管理领域建立信息管理共享平台,通过标准化、智能化处理,才能发掘这一数据宝库。本文结合我国中央和福建的福州厦门等地信息化统计工作现状,通过剖析信息化统计面临的主要问题,探索大数据时代完善信息化统计工作的途径。     

Fixed Effects and Random Effects Estimation of Higher-order Spatial Autoregressive Models with Spatial Autoregressive and Heteroscedastic Disturbances

Abstract

This paper develops a unified framework for fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) estimation of higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data models with spatial autoregressive disturbances and heteroscedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define both an RE and an FE spatial generalized two-stage least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators and derive their joint asymptotic distribution, which is robust to heteroscedasticity of unknown form in the idiosyncratic error component. Finally, we derive a robust Hausman test of the spatial random against the spatial FE model.     

非统计专业统计教学改革探索

统计学是财经管理类学科基础教育的重要一环,统计分析方法在经济领域应用极广,作者结合自身的教学实践,从教学思路、教学方法等方面,提出了对统计教学现状的改革思路。强调统计的实用性,教学中需转变观念,改变教学方法,注重方法的理解及应用,不过多阐述数学的推导过程;注重统计方法的计算机应用,培养定量分析问题解决问题的实际能力。     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

完善我国流通过程评价指标体系的建议

现行流通过程指标体系存在的主要问题是:指标体系不完善;统计制度不健全,设计方法落后;监测体系不完善;与国际统计标准接轨程度低;需要按照与国际惯例接轨的要求,改革与完善流通过程评价指标体系;用新理念、新技术改造流通领域,以信息化带动现代化,实现流通创新;大力推进流通统计制度创新,建立符合国际惯例、适应市场经济要求的流通信息统计机制;加强流通过程评价指标运行的监控,完善多层次的设计和监测体系。     

Geographical Information Systems, Spatial Analysis and Public Policy: the British Experience

Geographic information systems (GIS) have received considerable academic and practitioner attention in the last ten years. It is our view that these tools have been considerably oversold to public sector organisations-particularly local government-many of whom have failed to achieve the benefits they expected. In our paper, we attempt to develop a broad definition of GIS and discuss the relationship between GIS and policy analysis, spatial decision support systems, spatial analysis and spatial modelling. We also seek to explore how GIS fits into the management information systems and information architectures of public sector organisations and examine some of the human and organisational tensions which GIS adoption and use have brought about. Where possible, we have used examples of how GIS has been used to inform public development in several areas though these have generally been in academic settings and not in public sector organisations.     

对高校统计工作的分析和思考

改革开放以来,高校统计工作日益受到重视,高校统计反映着高校各项工作的发展情况,对高校管理有着重要的意义。文章探讨了目前高校统计工作面临的问题,并在分析问题的基础上阐述了提高高校统计工作质量的具体措施。     

Effet des Evolutions Techniques et des Changements de la Spécialisation Internationale sur les Marchés du Travail et les Systèmes Productifs: Comment les Statisticiens Pourraient-ils Relever les Défis?

Thinking about future needs and about what can reasonably be expected as feasible in the next century, how should producers of statistics direct their activity? Increasing complexity and diversity of needs leads us to recognize that, between producers and users of statistics, a mediating role is more and more often played by analysts and research workers who are requesting above all good data bases. Concerning infrastructures for statistics on productive systems, coordination between accountants and statisticians will be crucial, as well as adaptation of the constraints which, because of excessive worry about confidentiality, could prevent establishment or use of data bases. In an increasingly competitive world, where private firms will sell analyses and informations, particularly on very large enterprises, the public statistical service will remain essential in all respects. Intangible investments, innovations and many aspects of the internal organization of firms will create formidable challenges. Information on employment and labour markets has been much developed during the past decades; but on a few specific and difficult issues progress is still needed: lifecyles in the working-age population, acquisition of knowledge and skills in formal education and on the job, matching labour supplies and demands, and so on. Particular attention will have to be given to the lower levels of cultural and professional skills.     

民间统计组织管理模式

最近几年，民间统计组织在中国已取得了快速的发展，它具有三种管理模式：完全不管、完全管制和适当管制。随着民间统计组织的发展、成熟和完善，政府应转变自己的角色和功能，应从“管理者”转变成“服务者”，并用“服务”模式取代“管制”模式。     

中国政府统计抽样调查制度的总体框架研究

随着中国市场经济体制的逐步确立,政府的职能在逐渐转变,政府对统计数据的要求也在变化,这就要求政府统计调查制度也随之改革。适应市场经济体制和中国政府管理的特点以及城乡统筹发展的要求,政府统计调查应该以抽样调查为主体,抽样调查队伍和机构应主要设立在地市一级,调查的指标体系和内容应该改革与调整,企业抽样调查应该采用名单框和区域框结合的双框抽样方式。对于抽样调查得到的数据资料,不仅应当汇总得出各种可用于宏观经济管理与分析的总量指标数据和分类数据,而且还应当建立起全部被调查企业和被调查家庭的数据库,供政府部门和国内的科学研究机构进行微观社会经济活动主体层次的研究。