Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature on the interaction between real stock returns, inflation, and money growth, with a special emphasis on the role of monetary policy. This is an area of research that has interested monetary and financial economists for a long time. Monetary economists have been interested in the question whether money has any effect on real stock prices, while financial economists have investigated whether equity is a good hedge against inflation. Empirical studies show that money can be helpful in predicting future stock returns. Empirical evidence also suggest that equity is not a good hedge against inflation in the short run but may be so in the long run. The short-run negative relation between stock returns and inflation can easily be explained by theoretical models. If the central bank conducts a countercyclical monetary policy this will result in a negative relation between inflation and stock returns, while if it conducts a procyclical policy we could observe a positive relation. According to both theoretical and empirical studies investors receive an inflation risk premium for holding equity.     

Selecting suitable compensation plans of executive stock options

Theoretical and empirical works have emphasized that executive stock option plans play an important role in compensation management and corporate governance owing to the incentives to increase firm stock price and volatility levels. This study not only proposes models of executive stock options and constructs value-matched financial variables for comparing the incentive effects towards these options, but also develops an empirical study exploring the characteristics of executive stock options and suitable compensation management for companies. This investigation examines the daily value and compares incentive effects of six kinds of executive stock options with the empirical data of TSMC, the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, which is listed on the TSE and NYSE. Empirical results indicate that purchased options would be the best choice for companies that are unsuitable to undertake risky investments, while the relative indexed options are appropriate for bear markets and good for companies whose executives are highly risk averse. Repriceable options are not recommended due to their high costs and weak incentive effects.     

Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.     

Inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus in Iran——Using TARCH model

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran economy using monthly data of Iran over the period 1990-2009. TARCH model is used to peruse the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the economic instruments. The result indicates that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Also, the authors investigate from the Granger causality test that inflation is Granger causality of inflation uncertainty.     

Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil

This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. The hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation. A theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. However, with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation. The degree of inertia is then compared for two periods: one without indexation (1945–1963), and one with indexation (1969–1985). Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period, allowing for price stickiness. The empirical results do not support the hypothesis.     

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov‐switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992–2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre‐1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre‐1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.     

充分发挥商贸流通业稳定物价的功能作用

目前,我国正处于防止通货膨胀上升为主要目标的经济环境中,在治理通胀的过程中,一定要慎用直接干预.商贸流通服务业在众多供求矛盾的结构性问题上,对扼制、稳定物价,特别是稳定居民消费价格具有强大功能；电子商务、网上购物已经成为化解通胀的生力军,可以低成本为民生提供便利和节约时间,充分展示天然化解时空矛盾的功能；同时,积极引导商贸流通业增强经营决策的预见性,对大宗商品、农产品价格波动,要深入细致具体分析,做到两个分清；而体制性、制度性成本是最大祸害,“十二五”规划应该将降低流通领域的体制性成本作为主攻方向.另外,必须剔除轻商蔑商的封建意识,构造公平公正的舆论氛围,澄清商人的是非功过,搞清商人存在的缘由和真相,还商人以正面的社会形象.     

我国物价上涨过快的比较分析及对策研究

2010年以来，我国物价水平不断攀升，国家为应对物价过快上涨，采取了一系列措施，但从效果来看并不理想。我国在1993年～1995年期间也发生了比较严重的通货膨胀，比较分析这两次通货膨胀的特点，为我国经济运行做出正确的判断和分析，从而采取有效的应对措施。     

The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.