后金融危机时期中国货币政策选择——基于美国QE2经济后果的分析

"二次量化宽松政策"(简称QE2)是美联储在国内经济提振乏力、失业率居高不下以及世界经济复苏不平衡的背景下启动的。QE2或许能够使美国走出通缩的泥潭,也有可能催生资产泡沫,酝酿新的金融危机,但却无疑给世界经济,尤其是新兴市场国家的经济继续复苏蒙上了一层阴影,全球热钱将更加泛滥,世界经济秩序将遭到破坏,各国外汇储备将进一步缩水等。对此,我国中央银行货币政策必须加强与财政政策的配合,适时调整外汇储备资产结构,扩大本币结算合作,积极应对QE2的挑战。     

人民币价值悖论与中国央行的货币政策选择

2005年以来,人民币出现了对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象。随着我国经济持续快速增长,外汇储备屡创新高,人民币对外升值的压力持续增大。与此同时,人民币在国内按购买力计算的对内价值趋于下降,主要表现为国内逐渐面临着通货膨胀的压力。本文主要从理论上来分析论证这一现象出现的原因、金融内在的机理以及相应的政策建议。     

浅析我国当前通货膨胀的成因及治理对策建议

稳定物价已成为政府宏观调控的重中之重。为避免由于种种原因形成的通货膨胀给我国经济发展带来较大的负面影响,我们必须采取相关措施,要持续的将总量政策和结构政策相很好的组合起来,进行短期应急计划和措施与建立能长期保证制度正常运行并发挥预期功能的制度体系相结合,综合的采取各种各样的政策组合,比较有指向性地使用各种各样的措施在一定程度上减少对造成物价上涨的各种不利因素,抑制通货膨胀蔓延,使我国经济稳定的发展。     

我国当前通货膨胀的成因及应对策略

在回顾了改革开放以来几次通胀的基础上,重点分析了本轮通胀的成因。从深化金融体制改革、转换政府职能、推进收入分配制度改革、转变经济发展方式、加强统计的科学性等几个侧面,探讨了治理通胀的对策建议。     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

充分发挥商贸流通业稳定物价的功能作用

目前,我国正处于防止通货膨胀上升为主要目标的经济环境中,在治理通胀的过程中,一定要慎用直接干预.商贸流通服务业在众多供求矛盾的结构性问题上,对扼制、稳定物价,特别是稳定居民消费价格具有强大功能；电子商务、网上购物已经成为化解通胀的生力军,可以低成本为民生提供便利和节约时间,充分展示天然化解时空矛盾的功能；同时,积极引导商贸流通业增强经营决策的预见性,对大宗商品、农产品价格波动,要深入细致具体分析,做到两个分清；而体制性、制度性成本是最大祸害,“十二五”规划应该将降低流通领域的体制性成本作为主攻方向.另外,必须剔除轻商蔑商的封建意识,构造公平公正的舆论氛围,澄清商人的是非功过,搞清商人存在的缘由和真相,还商人以正面的社会形象.     

Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover

Abstract. This paper analyses the evolution of inflation and of consumers' inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover. It finds that the cross‐country variation of food product inflation was dependent on the complexity of conversion rates, with statistically significant and economically sizeable effects especially for low‐priced items sold in midpriced stores. The paper also shows that cross‐country differences in the mismatch of perceived and actual inflation were linked to differences in the complexity of conversion rates. These results are in line with theories of finite information‐processing capacities on the side of consumers.     

Inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus in Iran——Using TARCH model

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran economy using monthly data of Iran over the period 1990-2009. TARCH model is used to peruse the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the economic instruments. The result indicates that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Also, the authors investigate from the Granger causality test that inflation is Granger causality of inflation uncertainty.     

2009-2010年债券市场运行分析与展望

2009年，在适度宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策引导下，我国债券市场得以克服国际金融危机负面影响，继续保持稳定运行态势。各类证券发行量稳步增长，二级市场交易量温和放大，指数出现回调，债市与股市互动明显。展望2010年，在通胀预期和货币政策从紧预期影响下，市场利率有望上行，指数震荡幅度加大，商业性证券发行量继续增加，政府债券发行会有所控制。