More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession

Using microprice data, we document new facts on price rigidity in France: (i) each month 20.1% of prices are changed, which compares to 24.1% in the United States—excluding sales, however, the fraction of prices modified each month is about the same in France and in the United States (around 17%); (ii) the distribution of price changes is quite dispersed; (iii) the frequencies of price increases and decreases contribute a lot to inflation variations, and price increases are more frequent in January (even when sales are excluded); (iv) sales contribute significantly to the volatility of inflation but play a minor role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations to prices; and (v) during the Great Recession patterns of price adjustment were only slightly modified.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

BQ分解在核心通货膨胀中的应用研究

文章对Blanchard and Quah趋势分解（BQ分解）在核心通货膨胀中的应用进行了深入的研究,并针对其在应用中所存在的问题提出相应的解决方案。 BQ分解是根据菲利普斯曲线理论发展而来的,主要用于对多维变量的趋势分解。研究表明,两维var模型的BQ分解通常是充分可解的。但是多维BQ分解由于自身的结构性原因,并不能保证一定可解出有意义的实数解。文章也证明了文献中所提出为了解决该问题的Cholesky分解,其与BQ分解相互矛盾而不可采用,所以文章推荐采用校准的方法。实证表明,由校准BQ分解所得到的核心通货膨胀完全满足理论和实践对它的要求,能够预测CPI指数的发展趋势,所以作为解决多维BQ分解无法正常求解时的备选方法,校准是一种便捷而有效的方法。     

基于状态空间模型的汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的实证分析——基于央行资产负债表的视角

从分析人民银行资产负债表的变化出发,运用状态空间模型实证分析了2005年7月至2012年6月中国汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的动态时变过程。研究结果表明:人民币汇率升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用,但其效果较弱;货币供给对通货膨胀有较大的正向推动作用,货币供给的持续增加是人民银行资产负债表中资产方的外汇占款科目不断增加导致负债方的基础货币持续增加的结果。     

论如何同时降低通货膨胀率和失业率——菲利普斯曲线的微观经济基础及其移动

菲利普斯曲线有其微观经济基础。菲利普斯曲线描述的货币工资变化率与失业率之间的关系取决于失业工人随机寻找工作的经济决策、在岗工人与公司之间的博弈行为、工会势力与公司讨价还价力量的均衡、公司调整产品价格和工人工资的决定、劳动供给曲线的斜率等。以此为理论基础,通过对工作报价、最低工资预期水平、搜寻工作的效率、工会势力和公司势力、辞职率与临时解雇率、生产技术效率、劳动周转率、劳动市场分隔及其不平衡等因素进行政策性调节,可以使菲利普斯曲线整体性向左下方移动,从而同时降低通货膨胀率与失业率。     

基于市场预期行为的货币政策透明度检验

通过考察金融市场参与者的行为变化或分析市场利率在政策公告后的变化趋势,可以间接对货币政策透明度进行度量;利用相应的货币政策透明度检验模型和我国金融市场的利率数据进行检验,可知我国中央银行在基准利率调整和准备金率改变等重大的政策决策上,货币当局更倾向于采用模糊的政策操作方式,由此会导致市场预期的混乱,并最终对政策实施效果产生负面影响,因此,我国有必要借鉴西方国家的政策操作经验,进一步增加政策操作方面的透明度,并借以最终建立一个简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。     

人民币价值悖论与中国央行的货币政策选择

2005年以来,人民币出现了对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象。随着我国经济持续快速增长,外汇储备屡创新高,人民币对外升值的压力持续增大。与此同时,人民币在国内按购买力计算的对内价值趋于下降,主要表现为国内逐渐面临着通货膨胀的压力。本文主要从理论上来分析论证这一现象出现的原因、金融内在的机理以及相应的政策建议。     

后金融危机时期中国货币政策选择——基于美国QE2经济后果的分析

"二次量化宽松政策"(简称QE2)是美联储在国内经济提振乏力、失业率居高不下以及世界经济复苏不平衡的背景下启动的。QE2或许能够使美国走出通缩的泥潭,也有可能催生资产泡沫,酝酿新的金融危机,但却无疑给世界经济,尤其是新兴市场国家的经济继续复苏蒙上了一层阴影,全球热钱将更加泛滥,世界经济秩序将遭到破坏,各国外汇储备将进一步缩水等。对此,我国中央银行货币政策必须加强与财政政策的配合,适时调整外汇储备资产结构,扩大本币结算合作,积极应对QE2的挑战。     

Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover

Abstract. This paper analyses the evolution of inflation and of consumers' inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover. It finds that the cross‐country variation of food product inflation was dependent on the complexity of conversion rates, with statistically significant and economically sizeable effects especially for low‐priced items sold in midpriced stores. The paper also shows that cross‐country differences in the mismatch of perceived and actual inflation were linked to differences in the complexity of conversion rates. These results are in line with theories of finite information‐processing capacities on the side of consumers.