京津冀地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系实证研究

本文分别利用LYQ脱钩模型和Granger因果关系检验模型，选取了京津冀地区1995～2014年能源消费、碳排放与经济增长数据进行实证分析。通过脱钩模型及其分解得出，京津冀地区碳排放与经济增长以弱脱钩状态为主，原因在于能源利用率的提高导致节能弹性不断下降；通过Granger因果检验得出，京津冀地区能源消费与碳排放存在双向因果关系，但经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与碳排放存在单向因果关系，表明京津冀地区实施节能减排措施不会导致经济的下滑。未来京津冀地区要继续实施节能减排政策，推动产业结构优化升级，进一步提升能源效率，重点关注能源消费结构的改善，提高新型低碳能源的比重。     

基于动态解耦的卷筒纸印刷机速度-张力控制研究

卷筒纸印刷机的速度-张力耦合,是实现印刷机速度-张力精确控制的一个难题。为了精确控制印刷机的速度-张力,首先建立卷筒纸印刷机机电系统状态方程模型,依据状态反馈动态解耦控制理论,进行解耦控制。仿真结果表明,动态解耦控制在速度-张力控制中具有一定作用,为卷筒纸印刷机速度-张力的精确控制提供了一种有效方法。     

自适应解耦控制在凹印机张力控制系统中的应用

凹版印刷机张力控制系统是一个非线性、强耦合、时变性的复杂系统,用普通的PID难以达到理想的控制效果。本研究通过建立凹印机张力控制模型和驱动电机模型,设计了一种基于解耦控制原理的自适应解耦控制算法,根据偏差和偏差变化率来实时自适应追踪调整PID控制器参数,有效提高了张力控制系统性能和速度,是一种简单易行的控制算法。     

Has the global financial crisis produced a New World Order?

Described by Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, as the worst financial crisis in global history, the economic impact of the global financial crisis would have been much worse had it not been for Asia (excluding Japan). In broad terms, the crisis has accelerated the secular emergence of Asia, whereas the US recovery is weak by historical standards and problems in Europe continue. What accounts for this two-tier pattern of world growth? Does this juxtaposition signal a permanent re-ordering of world business - in other words, a New World Order?     

华中三省碳排放与经济增长脱钩分析--基于LYQ框架的实证

文章以华中地区的河南、湖北、湖南三省碳排放为研究对象,运用LYQ分析框架对2001-2010年间三省碳排放与经济增长之间脱钩指标进行因果链分解并进行指标测评,结果显示三省大部分年份经济增长与碳排放呈现弱脱钩的状态,碳排放的增长速度小于地区 GDP 的增长速度,能源利用效率的提高对碳排放增长速度的减缓起到了主要作用;而价值创造弹性成为阻碍脱钩的主要因素,因此未来三省要发展低碳经济需主要在优化产业结构、大力发展低耗能高附加值的产业上做努力。     

The myth of decoupling

The decoupling hypothesis is the idea that business cycles in emerging market economies have become more independent from business cycles in advanced economies in recent years. Decoupling essentially amounts to a structural break in the degree of business cycle interdependence between the two groups of economies, and it can be tested as such. We develop an innovative measure of business cycle interdependence based on the Euclidean distance, available at the annual frequency, which allows for a proper test for a structural break in a graphical setup. We also make use of a standard econometric test. Both approaches point to the same conclusion: there has been no decoupling in recent years. If anything, the degree of business cycle interdependence has become stronger.     

基于减物质化分析的天津市经济发展与生态环境互动效应研究

天津市作为我国重要的老工业基地,处于工业化和城市化快速推进的历史阶段,未来经济的快速增长和经济规模的日益增大,势必会给区域生态环境带来一定的压力。文章从维持区域生态经济大系统均衡的视角,应用减物质化理论,运用OECD(2002)Tapio(2005)测度指标,从污染物排放、能源消耗等方面,测度和分析天津市经济发展与生态环境间的互动作用,识别经济发展的资源环境约束效应和耦合规律,并提出了建议对策。     

黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的关系研究——基于脱钩及回弹效应

目的 科学评价水资源环境及其与经济增长之间的矛盾，直接关系到黄河流域水资源可持续利用与农业经济高质量发展。方法 文章以灰水足迹为视角，纳入种植业和畜牧业，全面测算2000－2019年黄河流域农业水资源环境状况；基于“脱钩”的内涵，运用GIS空间分析技术探索黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长关系的时空演变规律；引入无残差完全分解模型对黄河流域经济增长过程中农业灰水足迹的变化进行分解。结果 （1）总体而言，黄河流域农业灰水足迹随经济增长而增加，2013年达到极大值后缓慢下降。（2）黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的脱钩关系由无序到有序，2019年大多数地区呈强脱钩态势且存在显著的空间集聚特征。（3）2000－2019年约63%的地区在人口效应、经济效应的拉动作用下，农业灰水足迹产生增量效应；约37%的地区在城乡结构效应、技术效应和产业结构效应的抑制作用下，农业灰水足迹产生减量效应。结论 适度提高沿黄地区人口质量、控制经济发展规模以及推动绿色生产方式。     

Assessing CAP Reform: Sensitivity of Modelling Decoupled Policies

The European Union reformed farm policy in June 2003 towards the decoupling of farm income support instruments. Available impact studies find that this reform reduces production incentives substantially for beef and to a lesser extent for arable crops. However, these studies assume that the previous reform, under Agenda 2000, already decoupled arable crop direct payments to a considerable extent, while beef premiums were linked more closely to production. Our main objective in this paper is to test the sensitivity of these results to this questionable modelling of Agenda 2000 direct payments, which neglects eligibility rules and land market imperfections. Our analysis reveals that the effects of the reform on both arable crop and beef production are always negative, however the Agenda 2000 direct payments are modelled. On the other hand, we show that, when the eligibility rules and land market imperfections are acknowledged, the production reducing effects may be much larger for arable crops than for beef. Policy implications of these results are noted.     

Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output

The influence of inputs on output risk in the context of agriculturalproduction decisions taken by non-risk neutral agents has beenignored by previous research assessing the effects of decoupledincome support payments in a deterministic world or risk-neutralframework. We study the impacts of decoupled payments on inputuse and on output mean and variance. Our theoretical frameworkfor studying agricultural producers' responses to lump sum paymentsallows for both output and price uncertainty and economic agents'risk attitudes. Results show the importance, in a non-risk neutralscenario, of considering the influence that economic agentshave on the stochastic component of output through input use.Our empirical application uses Kansas farm-level data to illustratethe model.