What constitutes a constitutional amendment culture?

Why are some constitutions amended frequently and others hardly at all? An obvious candidate determinant is constitutional rigidity, i.e., the size and number of procedural barriers to amendment. Given some demand for amendment, greater rigidity implies a smaller supply. However, measures of rigidity often do not correlate significantly (or even with the predicted sign) with amendment rates. Ginsburg and Melton (2015) argue that amendment culture – “shared attitudes about the desirability of amendment” – is a more important determinant of amendment rates. We study up to 128 constitutional episodes from 54 countries and estimate relationships between amendment rates and Hofstede cultural indices. Cultures that are more individualistic and less prone to uncertainty avoidance are associated with higher amendment rates. When cultural dimensions are controlled for, the lagged amendment rate (Ginsburg and Melton’s proxy for culture) is not a robust correlate.     

20世纪50—60年代的中国财政学:一个传统的移入与退出

20世纪50—60年代既是新中国财政学初建时期,也见证了苏联财政学传统移入和退出的过程。就其理论和实践来源看,苏联财政学是苏联化的马克思主义、苏联特殊年代政治实践和计划经济体制等诸多因素的混合物。虽然它在发展和创新马克思主义财政理论方面作出了首创性的贡献,但其历史局限性也不可避免。在苏联财政学移植中国之时,其中一些负面特征也参与了新中国财政学的重建,并对其后中国财政学的发展起到了长久的羁绊作用。20世纪50年代后期以来,中国财政学“去苏联化”的目标未能完全实现,这一方面源于塑造苏联财政学的思维模式仍然在当时的中国财政学界起着支配作用;另一方面在那些影响财政学发展的主要因素上,当时的中苏两国极为雷同。吸取20世纪50年代中国移植苏联财政学的历史经验和教训,对当下中国合理借鉴域外学术资源、发展和创新马克思主义财政理论,有着重要的借鉴意义。     

Optimal targeting of latent tourism demand segments

This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign.     

When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?

This paper identifies determinants of compliance with various types of national numerical fiscal rules. Based on 51 fiscal rules in force in EU member states from 1995 to 2015, the analysis identifies determinants among specific rule characteristics and their fiscal frameworks, as well as their political, (socio-)economic and supranational environments. While the average compliance across all rules and countries is around 50%, compliance with rules constraining stock (rather than flow) variables, set out in coalitional agreements, as well as rules covering larger parts of general government finances is significantly higher. Furthermore, independent monitoring and enforcement bodies (issuing real-time alerts) turn out to be significantly associated with a higher probability of compliance. Several theories of the deficit bias of governments due to government fragmentation, decentralization and political budget cycles are also significant with regards to compliance with fiscal rules. However, neither the economic environment or business cycle, nor forecast errors (except for an unexpectedly higher primary balance) on average seem to play a significant role.     

Under threat: Rules-based fiscal policy and how to preserve it

Rules-based fiscal policy is under threat. Over the last two decades, it proved frustratingly complicated to strike the right balance between three essential properties of sound fiscal policy rules: simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Simplicity has been sacrificed to ensure that more contingent (i.e. flexible) rules remained enforceable. The resulting arrangements have failed to adequately guide fiscal policy, undermining formal compliance, and ultimately, popular and political support for rules. To mitigate the risk that countries abandon rules-based policymaking, we suggest downplaying enforceability—i.e. the role of formal sanctions through enforcement—and enhancing the reputational costs of breaching rules. At the limit, the rule could consist of a simple quantitative benchmark for a key fiscal indicator. To boost reputational effects, independent fiscal councils should focus on debunking the “fiscal alchemy,” clearing the public debate from partisan smokescreens, and fostering popular support for sound fiscal policies.     

Fiscal rules to tame the political budget cycle: Evidence from Italian municipalities

The paper provides evidence that fiscal rules can limit the political budget cycle. It uses data on Italian municipalities during the 2000s and shows that: 1) municipalities are subject to political budget cycles in capital spending; 2) the Italian sub-national fiscal rule (Domestic Stability Pact, DSP) introduced in 1999 has been enforced by the central government; 3) municipalities subject to the fiscal rule show more limited political budget cycles than municipalities not subject to the rule. In order to identify the effect, we rely on the fact that the domestic fiscal rule does not apply to municipalities below 5000 inhabitants. We find that the political budget cycle increases real capital spending by about 10–20 percent on average in the years prior to municipal elections and that municipalities subject to the DSP show a pre-electoral increase in capital spending which is only a quarter of the one of municipalities not subject to the rule.     

The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the “German labor market miracle” during the Great Recession.     

The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.     

构建适应中国特色应急管理需求的财政治理体系

“坚持总体国家安全观”是党的十九大报告关于国家发展战略的基本要求。以习近平同志为核心的党中央对应急管理工作高度重视,积极改革应急管理机构设置,加快构建“全灾种、全方位、全过程”的国家综合应急管理体制。同时,财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,财政治理现代化是应急管理体制现代化的先决条件之一。目前我国应急管理的理论研究较少嵌入财政治理机制的影响。本文梳理了国内外应急管理的相关治理理论,结合我国应急管理体制改革的现实需求,分析了当前我国应急管理中财政治理的现状,构建了我国应急管理中财政治理的政策体系模型,并提出了相应财税政策建议。     

结构性减税与扩张政府支出的宏观经济效应

为了深入研究不同类型财政政策对宏观经济的影响效应，本文构建纳入异质性家庭和细化财税工具的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，并着重模拟分析了不同类型财政政策冲击对居民消费、私人投资、通胀率以及总产出水平的动态影响效应。研究结果表明，不同类型财税工具对宏观经济的冲击效果存在显著差异，对于税收政策，劳动收入税减税能够有助于提升消费水平和消费需求，并调节和完善消费结构；而对于政府支出政策，转移支付规模的扩张通过刺激家庭消费，引导消费内需有效提升，从而带动经济增长方式由投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变，进而推动经济高质量发展。