China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

Trade-threshold Effect on Inflation in Tunisia: New Evidence Resulting from a Nonlinear Approach

Trade openness is an important determinant of the inflation process. The effect of trade openness on inflation, however, is still an issue of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. This study tried to provide a contribution to the literature by examining the relationship between inflation and trade openness in Tunisia over the period 1975Q1-2015Q4 using a nonlinear model. The originality of this study stems from the fact that it is the first investigation considering both the Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with the Regime Shifts and Threshold Regression model. The linear model confirms the existence of a positive relationship between inflation and trade in Tunisia. Yet, considering the nonlinear model, trade openness growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation growth show a statistically significant negative link as long as the trade openness evolution does not exceed the threshold. Nevertheless, if the trade openness growth is higher than the threshold, integrating the trade positively affects CPI inflation. Furthermore, a positive influence of Money supply growth on this type of inflation was noticed in Tunisia in all the considered regimes proving the effect of monetary factors on inflation level. Consequently, trade openness could be used to control inflation in Tunisia.     

创新网络领域知识主题研究述评

在知识经济时代，创新网络在企业创新中扮演着重要角色，而研究网络中知识要素的产生、传播、吸收等问题对了解企业网络化创新具有重要意义。基于国内外核心文献数据库，收集创新网络领域知识要素相关文献，并结合文献计量分析方法，对该领域近30年有关知识主题研究的演化规律、整体趋势等进行梳理。结果表明，国内外研究年度发文量均呈现3个阶段变化趋势，且分别拥有各自重要载文期刊，国内研究已形成核心团队，而国外并未形成；国内外研究既有相同之处，也存在差异性，且均形成较为清晰的研究框架；在演化规律上，国内横向拓展和纵向深化研究特征显著，而国外更加注重纵向深入探索分析，研究内容也更加分散；在未来前沿热点分析上，中外学者关注内容既有相同点，也有不同点，知识协同、知识惯例、企业数字化转型对知识影响的研究是未来关注重点。     

Tax competition,imperfect capital mobility and the gain from non-preferential agreements

The gain to competing governments from entering into binding non-preferential tax agreements (that prevents discriminatory taxation in favor of mobile capital) depends on the extent of capital mobility between jurisdictions. In particular the gain is increasing in the cost of relocation of capital and the fraction of the domestic tax base which is relatively immobile. We show this in a symmetric model of tax competition between two governments where all capital is imperfectly mobile and differ only in their cost of relocation.     

Regime switching rough Heston model

This model combines two important stylized features of volatility, the rough behavior consistent with a Hurst parameter less than , and the regime switching property consistent with more long-term economic considerations. It is nevertheless highly tractable in the sense of semianalytic formulae for European options, and permits a partial Monte Carlo method of similar computational speed as the semianalytic formula (at an appropriate number of Monte Carlo simulations). While option prices are relatively insensitive to the choice of Hurst parameter, introducing rough volatility allows for a better fit to the at-the-money skew.     

Contagion effects and risk transmission channels in the housing,stock, interest rate and currency markets: An Empirical Study in China and the U.S.

This paper aims to investigate the crisis linkage and transmission channels within the housing, stock, interest rate and the currency markets in the U.S. and China in the past decade since the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Two hybrid models, namely the SWARCH-EVT-Copula and the Bivariate SWARCH-EVT models, are proposed and applied in order to take into account (A) the high/low volatility regimes, (B) the interdependence structure inherited from the joint tail behaviours, as well as, (C) the risk spillover dynamics among financial sectors during market turmoils. We empirically show that the housing and stock markets share the strongest linkage and play central roles in the spreading of shocks. With a highly integrated system, the American financial sectors are under greater exposure to risk contagion and systemic risk during crises than the Chinese markets. Nevertheless, the exchange rate risk of Renminbi remains at an intensive level since its “crawl-like arrangement” and leads to increasing co-movements in the stock and interest rate markets since 2014.     

A truly global crisis? Evidence from contagion dependence across international REIT markets

This study examines the global nature of the recent crisis under bivariate Markov-switching models for pre- and post-crisis periods using the breakpoint of August 9, 2007. It quantifies international synchronization of boom-bust regime switches to investigate contagion-type dynamic comovements of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Global REIT markets display persistent bust regimes from September 2008 to May 2009, whereas the regime-switching patterns are not significant in the pre-crisis period. The results provide new evidence for global REIT contagion phenomena and suggest greater difficulties in diversifying risks across global REIT markets during the post-crisis period.     

证券虚假陈述民事诉讼行政前置条件的取舍

保护投资者权益是推进资本市场基础制度改革的重点方向。长期以来,证券虚假陈述民事诉讼前置条件给投资者寻求司法救济设置了巨大的阻碍。为了更好地保护投资者利益和顺应改革方向,最高人民法院在处理涉及该前置条件的案件时,审判思路也从注重前置条件的程序性功能转变为强调其证据功能。取消行政处罚作为硬性前置条件是证券民事诉讼发展的方向,但应以金融司法的发展与协调、前置条件初步证据功能的完善、多元化投资者保护路径的构建为前提,恰当平衡好投资者权益保护与司法资源整合的天平,再适时开放证券虚假陈述民事诉讼的闸口。